This isn't like three days ago, with Der Starmer and New New Labour winning in the UK, in a low-turnout vote that saw LibDems (no better) as the second-biggest beneficiary.
Instead, actual leftists of the New Popular Front appear poised to take the lead, under the leader of former French presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who arguably is poised to be the leader in the next French presidential election, looking way ahead to 2027, in part for his quick work in assembling this coalition for the first round of voting, and steering it to victory after Marine Le Pen's National Rally. (At a minimum, young as he is, I think if Macron was eyeing a third term, that's off the table now. I don't know if he's term-limited or not.)
One thing to note, and hinted at in that first piece. Within France's population, size, and position on the world stage, when the French president's party also controls the National Assembly and Senate in the French parliament, a French president is stronger than their American counterpart. When that's NOT the case, they're often weaker. It's called, in an oh-so-French way, "cohabitation." In the past, an opposition Parliament has usually ceded foreign and defense policy to the president, but, after the first round of voting, both the left and right indicated that probably wouldn't be the case this time.
More here. Mélenchon clearly and smartly does not want the premiership himself.
Update, July 8: Macron has rejected the resignation of his premier, Gabriel Attai (who said at the time it was announced, indirectly, that the snap election was stupid).
What that means, among other things? A re-evaluation of France's stance in the Russia-Ukraine War may be possible, though pre-election pledges say the left won't withdraw support. We'll see, given how fractious that coalition is. Proxy war supporters Sunday were otherwise spinning, spinning, spinning, glad that Le Pen lost but in shock that Macron did as well.
And, if Macron resists? His stupidity in calling this snap election will probably further hoist him by his own petard.
Finally, wait for the smear jobs. Some have already happened since Oct. 7, namely, that Mélenchon, like Corbyn, has been accused of being antisemitic for his anti-Zionism. That said, per the last link above, the New Popular Front closed ranks on Israel-Gaza in a way that, on paper, while not blank checks for Israel, might be a little bit loose, depending on whether the "all hostages released" is the horse before the cart, or the "real ceasefire" is.. But, we'll see just how that one, also, actually plays out. A follow-up story on the election indicated the NPF will have a tougher line against Israel than Macron.
Per Wiki pages? Mélenchon's own party, La France Insoumise, at one time supported withdrawing from NATO, among other things. He himself supports Ukraine, and hedges on whether or not this is a proxy war. He looks askance at Israel, and at Zionist lobbying and influence outside of Israel. French Communists? One need not talk about the factionalized and fractionalized French Left; the French CP is plenty of example. Socialists? Also factionalized, and imploded in the 2022 presidential election. The Ecologists (French Greens coalition) have as many Assembly seats as the Socialists; both have more than the Communists. Mélenchon's party, in fact, has half the coalition's total. (All numbers from the 2022 election, of course.)
That said, the leftist coalition is already being a bit fractious. But, a "technocratic government," like Politico Europe postulates? Not happening.
And, the idea that Le Pen lost? Bullshit from European neoliberals. The Rally picked up as many new seats as the leftist alliance, and more than them by proportion of previously held seats.
Both winners and losers? The French citizenry. Until both center and left shake out more, instability is at risk and the Fifth Republic, even with a strong presidency, could become like the Fourth. That's this Yank's final thought from across the pond. Note that Macron had to put his self-launched party into a broader coalition, and that Mélanchon had to join a broader coalition as well. Yes, he has a tough line, but, with post-election finger-pointing, Macron as a "busted flush" may be worse off.
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