Final election prognostications (and post-mortem!)

Last Thursday, as a lead-in to this corner's version of the weekly Texas Progressives roundup (not counting my normal split-off of coronavirus news), I had the following semi-rhetorical questions:

• Will Biden win?

• Will Democrats regain the U.S. Senate? 

• Will Texas Dems flip the state House?

• Will Biden win Texas?

• Will M.J. Hegar beat John Cornyn?

• How well will third-party candidates Jo Jorgensen and Howie Hawkins do?

• If Hawkins is well behind Stein 2016, in part because lack of dues-paying membership put a crimp on state-by-state party ballot access, what will the Green Party do?

• Will the GP address rogue states Rhode Island (openly endorsing Biden and sending no presidential delegates to the GP 2020 convention) and Alaska (separately nominating Jesse Ventura) at its 2021 convention?

OK, let's "lean in," as the Facebook PR spinners say.

 

Note: Answers, as they come, in italics, starting late Nov. 3.

• The biggie? Eighty percent odds Biden wins. About 55 percent he meets or beats Trump's 2016 total of 304 EVs (setting aside faithless electors in the case wrongly adjudicated by SCOTUS). About 25 percent he hits Dear Leader's 332 of 2012. Ninety-five percent Biden wins the popular vote. Eighty percent he does so by bigger margin than Hillary Clinton.

 

Nov. 3: Biden is ahead, and looks likely to win after Fox gave him Arizona on an early call.

• As of right now? Sixty percent odds Democrats regain the Senate, as I've talked about previously.

 

Nov. 3: Fading, starting with Ernst winning Iowa. Stay tuned on Georgia.

• Forty percent they flip the state House. In other words, it's a definite possibility, but I just don't see it with enough legs to make it reality. (Related? I blogged a year ago about possible internecine GOP fighting over redistricting.)

Nov. 3: FadED, not fading. Be surprised indeed if by this time Nov. 4, they've won more than four new net seats. Reasons are many, including some relative lack of enthusiasm, some GOP fears, and, stop me if you've heard this before, but Texas is "a non-voting state" ... among much of its Hispanic populace. See link in next graf. (My largely White exurban Metroplex county unofficially broke 70 percent.)

 

Nov. 4: Wasn't just Texas, and wasn't just Hispanics. Nationally, Biden ran lower than Hillary Clinton among both Hispanics AND Blacks. Maybe, per Nikole Hannah Jones of the 1619 Project, it's past time to ditch "Hispanic," which is about as meaningful as "Asian" as an ethnic category. (For that matter, re "African American," where do you fit new or newish Nigerian immigrants who came to America freely vs the descendants of slaves?) More here from Margaret Sullivan, where that Twitter thread link was seen. Meanwhile, ConservaDems in Congress are making new noise about moving that old Overton Window further right. That's even though, per Mondoweiss, "Squad" type new Congresscritters won most their races.)

• Fifteen percent on Biden winning Texas. I expect he'll be tripped up by the usual bugaboo of "non-voting state Texas" having Hispanic turnout that leaves him a bit short. (I expect the break on Hispanic votes will be more pro-Biden than Hillary Clinton, but that reverse taco ConservaDem Hispanics will remain glued fairly strongly to Trump.)

 

Yep. 

 

Nov. 3: It may tighten, but, it looks like Biden's finals vs Trump will be about what the last few polls said. And maybe UH was right that some of it was some independents breaking late for Trump. A LOT of Hispanics in the Valley apparently broke Trump rather than being non-voters. "Fortunately," I've been in Tex-ass long enough to see this continue to play out.

• Ten percent. Unlike Biden, Hegar's never had a poll showing her in the lead. I don't see her pulling this off.

 

Nov. 3: Called this right. Cornyn, despite him becoming a lapdog to Trump and a second fiddle wannabe to Havana Ted Cruz, apparently is less offensive enough to run about 2 percentage points ahead of Donald.

• Jorgensen, despite Justin Amash refusing to seek the Libertarian nod because he didn't want to elect Trump, will probably get 80-90 percent of what Gary Johnson did in 2016. Contra a glue-sniffer at this piece at Independent Political Report, she will NOT increase Johnson's vote by 50 percent and take 5 percent of the national vote. You can bet on that and make book on it. Howie, on the other hand, in part because Greens are on fewer state ballots this year and in part due to Jesse-stanners and Dario-stanners bolting? No more than 60 percent of Stein. That also said, because other Greens may be like Rhode Island? If we do an apples-to-apples comp, I think he'll fall short of Stein at no more than 80 percent just comparing states where they both are/were on the ballot.

 

Nov. 8: Per numbers in this National Review story wondering if Biden won Wisconsin by Dems keeping Howie off the ballot there? Howie, on an apples-to-apples basis, may be lucky to finish at 50 percent of Stein. Not primarily his fault, but will be ammo for Dario-stanners and Jesse-stanners. 

 

UPDATE, Nov. 20: Via Ballot-Access News, "others," as in the really minor candidates, outperformed Hawkins, who is listed at less than 400,000 votes.

• No. Usual strawmen about "too pricey," etc. will be raised, and Republicans will use this loophole to run as Greens in select races and other things.

• No. But, there's a 50-50 shot trans activists will try to punish the Georgia GP next summer.