Five weeks left on Pujols contract talks

Albert Pujols has again confirmed that the St. Louis Cardinals have until the start of spring training to ink him to a new contract. General manager John Mzeliak has confirmed Pujols' deadline.

Cardinals position players report Feb. 19, so that leaves five weeks from now.

Pujols, in follow-up commnents, said the deadline is for the good of the team.

Cards writers with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch were split on deal chances earlier this month, though none was hugely pessimistic at that time.

That said, reportedly, Alex Rodriguez type "historical bonuses" could help the Cards complete a deal. Given no Cards-only player has ever hit 500 HRs, and nobody has ever hit 600 in a Redbird uniform, and Lou Brock was the last to 3,000 hits, there's some angles here.

Over six years, barring injury or rapid decline, Pujols will surpass 600 HRs and 3,000 hits, and will easily pass the 1,500 mark in both runs scored and RBIs.

Given that he would be only the third "clean" 600/3,000 player, after Willie Mays and Henry Aaron (making assumptions of some sort about all three), there would be some definite marketing and tie-in dollars.

Of course, just as in A-Rod's case, the players' union would have to sign off on any such contract.

I see something in the neighborhood of 7 years, $200 million. An option, for more per year, could be 5 years, $150 million. (I'm taking this as straight cash, not deferred money or incentive/marketing bonuses.

Because Pujols has 10 years overall and 5 in St. Louis, he would have veto rights over any midseason deal, even if he would recognize it as a rent-a-player situation.

Now, would he be worth those numbers?

Except for some fielding decline in 2010, most his value numbers have held steady for 4-5 years and, I expect, these numbers will not significantly decline for the next 5, or the next 4 years into a new contract:

                                                 
Year       Tm Rfield Rrep RAR  WAR oRAR oWAR dWAR
2001      STL      6   19  69  6.9   63  6.4  0.5
2002      STL     -4   18  56  5.8   60  6.2 -0.4
2003      STL     14   18 107 10.9   93  9.5  1.4
2004      STL     15   18  93  9.4   78  7.9  1.5
2005      STL      9   19  79  8.2   70  7.2  1.0
2006      STL     14   16  83  8.3   69  7.0  1.3
2007      STL     25   18  82  8.3   57  5.8  2.5
2008      STL     18   17  94  9.6   76  7.8  1.8
2009      STL     12   18  88  9.2   76  7.8  1.4
2010      STL     -2   19  72  7.2   74  7.4 -0.2
10 Seasons       107  180 823 83.8  716 73.0 10.8

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/29/2010.

That said, who's got the money AND a location acceptable to Prince Albert if Mozeliak and DeWitt aren't going to cough up $200 million?

1. Chicago. And, a definite 1B opening. And, a fan base that after initial ooginess, would certainly welcome him. That one-year Carlos Pena contract is nothing.
2. Houston, if it wants to immediately vault to NL Central relevance. (Would probably piss off Brett Wallace to be stuck behind Pujols again.)
3. Atlanta? Definitely. With an aging Phillies team, a still-struggling Mets, and a who-knows Nats, a strong move.
4. The Dodgers - IF the McCourt fiasco gets wrapped up quickly enough. But, not sure that's a team Pujols would visit.
4. Mets - See Braves and Astros.
6. Baltimore badly needs a 1B, but not sure it wants to spend like that.
7. The Angels? If they thought they could move Kendry Morales, sure. Especially now that they lost the Crawford sweepstakes this year. But, that's kind of a big if.
8. The Giants. Hmm ... they've got new money, and Huff ain't getting younger.