First, Canada wants a waiver on carbon dioxide emissions from its oil sands mining, if that’s the best word. (It ain’t being drilled, unlike conventional oil.)
The sands are in a huge slump with oil prices in general right now. But, those prices are already creeping up, and, IMO, could be back at $60/bbl by summer’s end. So, more oil from sands will be produced.
I don’t think Obama has either guts or inclination to deny the request. It would force him to be a real environmentalist, would put pressure on Congress to resist Big Oil and Big Coal and pass a real climate change bill, and would force him to take more leadership on the issue.
So, Ottawa, one free waiver is in the mail.
Second, Obama plans to accelerate the timeframe for automakers to get their CAFEs up to 35 mpg. Other than that, there’s not much new about the bill, except…
It would appear to deny two-track CAFE regulation by the back door, by incorporating California’s tougher-than-national carbon-dioxide emissions standards, rejected by the BushCo EPA, until the big picture, and by EPA greenhouse-gas emission regulation powers into the mix.
Der Ahhnold is already on board with the first half.
But, can he unilaterally agree to that deal, without his state’s air quality board, or the Assembly, or somebody, signing off with him?
So what if California can theoretically follow a separate regulatory track again after 2016. What if federal permission for that is not granted?
Third, this in turn means that renewed calls for EPA to actually regulate CO2 itself, as far as determining emissions standards, rather than punting to Congressional bill writers, is dead as a doorknob.
So, a mix of indirect sellouts, and refusals to take proactive stances. Surprised?
That’s why I don’t get Paul Krugman’s naivete on this issue.
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