February 07, 2014

Hispanic alert for Battleground Texas

The Texas Trib gives further confirmation to what I've blogged about before, about Battleground Texas' demographic assumptions on how boosting Hispanic turnout will make turning Texas "blue" a piece of baklava.

The "heads up"? Per this Gallup Poll, Hispanics in Texas, while still Democratic leaning, are less Democratic leaning here in the Pointy Abandoned Object State than elsewhere. Five percent more GOP, six percent less Democratic, is more than an eyeblink of difference.

And, right now, that difference between Texas and national Hispanic numbers is getting WORSE, not better:
Relative to 2008 -- the year of President Barack Obama's landslide presidential victory -- Texan Hispanics have gradually become more Republican, even as the percentage of Hispanics identifying with or leaning toward the Republican Party has remained relatively stable nationwide. The six-percentage-point gap between the percentage of Texan Hispanics and Hispanics living in all other states who identify or lean GOP is the highest it has been in over six years.

Gallup goes on to "helpfully" point out that national vs. state Hispanic voter registration rates show a 7-point gap, too. (Of course, all demographic classes in Texas lag national numbers here.)

Why? At my long original blog post, I noted that, at least for Shrub, Latino Protestants broke in his favor. And, in Texas, many Hispanics, even if their ancestors were from Mexican Catholic backgrounds, appear to be doing the religion shift.

As far as issues? Both Catholic and Protestant Hispanics, if they're newer to Texas, may not care about abortion, but might care about broader birth control issues. They probably don't peg liberal on LGBT issues, true, but they sure as hell don't cotton to open carry gun laws. Just a word to the wise.

At the same time, if top Republican candidates continue to be batshit crazy on "the border" and immigration, Hispanic Republicans, including leaders, may strike their tents. One is already threatening that.

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