November 30, 2011

2012 MLB HOF ballot: Anybody deserving?

Here's the details on this year's Hall of Fame ballot.

Bernie Williams tops the new players, and that doesn't say a lot. Less than 2,500 hits on counting stats, oWAR below 60 and bad defensive numbers ... NOT a HOF-er, not first or subsequent years. (Leave it to ESPN to promote his candidacy, though, because: A. Many of ESPN's baseball writers are kind of clueless and B: Many of ESPN's baseball writers are Yankee homers.)

So, the big questions are last year's top two first-year candidates, Barry Larkin and Jeff Bagwell.

Larkin was hurt, pun intended, on counting stats by injuries throughout his career. On sabermetric stats, playing in the Cal Ripken era, then the Alex Rodriguez era, he was overshadowed at shortstop. On the defensive side, he was no Ozzie Smith; he wasn't even a Ripken.

Probably gets in this year, probably should. I wouldn't die if he had to wait another year, but, if he doesn't make it this year, it could be several years.

Bagwell should have gotten in last year. I don't think he roided, he was decent or better on the defensive side, and was definitely a good baserunner for a first baseman. Get him in.

Will Jack Morris, among other holdovers, get any Bert Blyleven type love? Let's hope not.

Edgar Martinez? If you get the "luxury" of playing DH, you have to do better on both sabermetric stats and especially on counting stats than you actually did. Sorry.

So, I'd like to see Bagwell, for sure. Maybe Larkin. And that's it.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the dumb comments about Edgar Martinez....clearly you don't know much about SABR stats, but a .933 OPS in nearly 9000 ABs is an amazing number. He is 100th in career WAR, without getting much defensive credit (or penalty, granted) and 64th in career offensive WAR. Those numbers put him among the elite of baseball.

Also, if DH is such a luxury to play, why hasn't there been dozens of similar DH type numbers? No DH since Martinez has produced anything similar to his numbers over a 12 year span. your suggestion is he hit because hos playing DH, yet nobody can seem to replicate the same performance.

if you don't like DHs, just say so, but then you should also hate closers.

Gadfly said...

.933 is not that big of a deal for someone who doesn't have to field, and who despite that, had a relatively short career. HOF voters obviously agree, and, as shown by Blyleven's induction, they're not dummies any more around modern stats.

And, he's only 70th in career WAR among batters despite the luxury of not playing a fielding position.

Hall of the Very Good? Sure. HOF? No.

Gadfly said...

Also, I'm not fond of closers. You'll note Lee Smith is also on the ballot and I also didn't suggest him to get in the Hall of Fame. Rivera? Will be different. But, don't even think about comparing him and Martinez.

Next, if by "hos" you mean HRs, no, Martinez actually didn't hit that many. He was a doubles hitter with a high OBP.

Third, there's not much diff between Edgar and John Olerud.

Fourth, I'm not a "homer." As a Cards fan, I say repeatedly that, if Big Mac hadn't used roids but that the rest of his career numbers (which he wouldn't), I lean away from putting him in the Hall, too.