SocraticGadfly: First climate change shit could hit fan in 3 years

May 09, 2022

First climate change shit could hit fan in 3 years

I reported last month that the latest UN IPCC climate crisis report says that without strenuous human action, we're likely to hit 3C — nearly 6F for Americans — of climate temperature increase by 2100.

The first major issue, beyond temperature increase itself, of an actual climate crisis, could be the disappearance of the Thwaites Glacier on the West Antarctic Ice Shelf. This glacier is so large that its full disappearance by itself would raise global sea levels 2 feet. Think of what that would mean for The Netherlands. New York City. Miami. Small Pacific islands.

And, this would likely not happen on a slow-but-steady basis. Instead, the ice shelf holding it back could break off all at once.

And, yes, this could happen in the next 3-5 years. It might be longer than that, but even somewhat less alarmist predictions say 10 years. More at Science News.

When this happens, do you think it will provoke countries of the world into collaborative mandatory action? Or will it provoke one of two countries in the world — the only two countries for this to stick — to start this process on their own with a combination of a carbon tax and a carbon tariff?

You know that answer as well as I do, sadly.

It may be too late to stop Thwaites' disintegration, but not too late to stop bigger climate crisis problems. I've long said we need a carbon tax PLUS a carbon tariff to put the whole world on one page. How strong does that need to be? The IPCC says $140-$590 per ton of carbon. I'd shoot on the high side.

Meanwhile, Texas ConservaDem Congresscritters want Biden to "drill, baby, drill."


Reminder: This all hits farms. While much of the hit is in India and sub-Saharan Africa, it's also in the southern US.


daveminnj said...

"we're likely to hit 3C — nearly 6F for Americans — of climate temperature increase by 2021."

I follow the rest of the piece, but when you wrote 2021 did you mean '2100'?

I'll assume this is not the moment to ask your opinion of the HOF worthiness of Craig Kimbrel.

Gadfly said...

Fixed, Dave! Good catch.

And, on baseball? Don't get me started on Phat Albert taking the mound a week ago.

daveminnj said...

Just when I thought 'they've got to pull the plug, they've just got to'
he hits 2 hrs in a game.

Gadfly said...

True, but he's still what, in the .230s? Yeah, I know averagesasa whole are down this year ....

daveminnj said...

Quite right. Pujol's lack of production was disguised by Arenado's astounding start, then by Goldschmidt's amazing run. Fine as they are they'll come back to Earth. What then?