SocraticGadfly: #Dems2020: What's their endgames?

August 29, 2019

#Dems2020: What's their endgames?

Now that a few candidates have dropped out, and the two most ConservaDems, John Delaney and Tim Ryan, refuse to do so despite very good reasons that they should do so, it's time to look at what I think the intended end game is of each Democratic candidate, along with a guess as to what's up if they don't.  And, it's their intended end game as a goal, not what I think is realistic.

This includes only serious and semi-serious candidates. It does not include truly border candidates, or late entries. See here for my original assessment of each semi-serious candidates' changes; it includes candidates who have now dropped out.

Bernie Sanders. End game? Presidency. If not? Finishes out this Senate term then probably retires.

Elizabeth Warren. End game? Presidency. If not?  A second run in 2024 seems more likely than seeking a third Senate term. That's if she's not the Veep on a winning Sanders ticket, which would seem unlikely in terms of age and geography, but, hey, Clinton and Gore did it.

Joe Biden. End game? Presidency. If not? Slowly fading away, mixed with perhaps being a scold if a Sanders is nominated and wins. Or more than a scold.

Ryan-Delaney. End game? Same for both, that's why they're paired — block Bernie Sanders, and maybe, block Elizabeth Warren as well. I think both are willing to step aside if they have some assurance Bernie, at least, isn't winning. Their if nots are different. Ryan presumably peels back to seeking House re-election by the end of October or so. Delaney's out of Congress, so, he'll stay around to be the ConservaDem white knight through, oh, March. Should Sanders get the nomination, expect a refusal to endorse. Should he win, expect a scold who eventually gets a guest gig with CNN.

Kamala Harris. End game? Presidency. If not? Another Senate run in 2022 followed by another prez run, unless a Sanders or Warren Veep nominee.

Pete Buttigieg. End game? Presidency. If not? A 2022 Senate challenge of Todd Young for U.S. Senate. I don't see a run for a third term as South Bend mayor.

Julián Castro. End game? Presidency. I think two months ago he thought he was really not in it, and would have been honest about it, but ... the times have changed. If not? Coming back to Texas for a 2022 gov run.

Corey Booker. End game? Presidency. If not? Veep to either Sanders or Warren, and running for a third Senate term in 2024 if not that.

Robert Francis O'Rourke. End game? Presidency, I think. If not? New media owner of some sort.

Andrew Yang. End game? Presidency. If not? Secretary of Commerce for a two-year dip, then back to the private world.

Amy Klobuchar. End game? Secretary of Agriculture. I don't highly see her seeking a fourth Senate term in 2024. If not? She might still run, or maybe look at a gubernatorial run.

Marianne Williamson. End game? Becoming president by New Age mind manipulation. If not, which is of course the case? Maybe angling for the UN ambassadorate under a Sanders presidency; if not that, then writing books.

Tulsi Gabbard. End game? The presidency, aided by outside the box alleged journalists who won't tell the truth about her. If not, which is of course the case, and which is her real end game? I don't know. I can't picture any Democratic nominee who is elected giving her any Cabinet position. Ambassador to India? Assuming she doesn't pull out of the race in time to keep her House seat, and Trump is re-elected, would she accept a position from him?

Gabbard has now ruled out an independent candidacy. That said? First, this is a typical boilerplate answer, and second, CNN didn't ask her about third-party candidacies.

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