November 06, 2012

I am 'officially' calling the election for Obama

Per Nate Silver of the 538 blog, Obama is up 5 points in Hillsborough County, home to Tampa. He notes it has been "correct" as a bellwether of the winner of Florida, overall, from 1960 on.

That 5 percentage point advantage is with 80 percent of votes in.

And, Silver notes that this may be in part due to Obama's work in getting out, and getting, the Hispanic vote. (In Florida, that's primarily his work in getting the non-Cuban Hispanic vote.)

Well, in that case, if Obama's doing that well with Hispanics, and apparently doing that well in Florida, unless Sheldon Adelson scared the hell out of a bunch of old Jewish voters, Ohio doesn't even matter.

The Hispanic vote guarantees Colorado and Nevada, if this result on Hispanics holds up nationally.

And, between that and Florida looking likely, and now, Denver suburbs going Obama ...

I am "officially" calling the election and saying Obama has won.

In Senate races, the Democrats look likely to at least hold their own, keeping a Democratic seat in Florida, the Lieberman seat in Connecticut, winning the seat in Indiana formerly held by the GOP's Lugar and Warren beating Brown in Massachusetts.

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