March 06, 2012

Can Romney wrap it up tonight? Maybe not

Per the analysis of Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, he could essentially wrap things up, indeed.If he wins both Tenness and Ohio, he would have a commanding delegate lead, plus the "Big Mo." If he only wins Ohio, but n ot Tennessee, among the borderline states, the fight will probably go on, but with Romney still in the driver's seat.

Under the first scenario, the question has to be, will Santorum honestly face the handwriting? And, will the media be honest about not promoting a horse race any more? And, will Newt pull a Jerry Brown or something? On the second scenario, how well with both Romney and Santorum "spin"?

Update, 8 p.m. Central: Looks like we're in scenario 2, at least, as Santorum seems to be winning Tennessee. And, handily.

Then there's scenario three -- Santorum winning both states.

Related to that, in your "What's the Matter with State X" moment, both Romney and Santorum are fighting for blue-collar, yes, blue-collar votes.

1 comment:

mistah charley, ph.d. said...

i saw michael moore on msnbc last night he said he was scared of a santorum candidacy because it might turtn into a santorum presidency the narrow victory in ohio by romney probably means he will go on to be the party candidate despite the apparent lack of enthusiasm for him