Anti-Peak Oiler expects $30/bbl oil – hah!

I will eat Mark Lynch’s hat if he is even close to right on this prediction.

Even if your less pessimistic about a nearer-term peak than someone like Matthew Simmons, the idea that oil will fall to $30/bbl, even if you get speculators further removed from the business, is laughable.

Especially since Lynch is counting on more pricey oil shales, not economically viable at $30, to be part of that price reducer, his postulate is simply ridiculous. As are other details he cites in favor, such as pooh-pooh-ing worries over the water "cut" in Saudi wells.

If West Texas Intermediate gets close to, let alone above, $100/bbl in the next 14 months, though, the lack of current Congressional action and Presidential push on commodities speculation regulation will become more glaring, and we will get a bipartisan push for a Band-Aid.