SocraticGadfly: Talk up a brokered Democratic convention

March 04, 2008

Talk up a brokered Democratic convention

Big-name pundits, at least in the MSM, continue to say “Hillary can’t win.” While left-of-center blogs aren’t necessarily going that far, both they and the MSM are missing an alternative issue — what if neither Clinton NOR Obama can close the deal out?

This is very mathematically possible, as long as two current parameters continue to hold. And that is that John Edwards, especially, and Bill Richardson, secondarily, both do not endorse a candidate and do not release their delegates. Especially with Edwards’ case (he must now really regret playing tag-team wrestling with Obama against Clinton), if he holds tight, we could have a case where, assuming an superdelegate split leaning slightly to Clinton and an elected-pledged delegate list just barely Obama’s, that neither candidate has a majority.

And Edwards definitely gets to play kingmaker.

Possible? Sure, if the parameters I mentioned stay in place, there’s at least a 10 percent chance of this.

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