At least in Texas.
In metropolitan Dallas,, it looks like he won’t have any coattails at all in November.
Contrary to a previous Dallas Morning News article touting the idea of Collin County, home of stereotypical red-state suburb Plano, turning blue, today’s Snooze story says that may just be temporary, especially if Barack Obama and not Hillary Clinton is the Democratic standard-bearer.
Why?
Most Obama voters turned out for him and him alone, not for the Democratic primary.
The drop-off in down-ballot voting by Obama voters was a whopping 42 percent in Collin County and 30 percent in Dallas County. Also, in East Texas, the Obama dropoff was 38 percent in Jefferson County (Beaumont), 34 percent in Smith County (Tyler), and 33 percent in Gregg County (Longview).
See this PDF map and graphic that has much more information than the story itself about outstate Texas down-ballot dropoffs, by county.
Clinton did not have a drop-off of more than 30 percent anywhere in Texas. Only one county exceeded 25 percent (Hidalgo: McAllen/Harlingen), and two others were at or above 20 percent, with one of those being a small county.
So, I think it’s easily arguable that, here in Texas, Clinton will have longer coattails, to the tune of 50,000 or so.
Of course, that is offset by the very fact of many Obama voters not voting down-ballot. If Clinton gets the nomination, many of them my well not turn out in November.
Another way to put it: Obamamania may be a mile wide, but it only appears to run an inch deep.
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