Scientists know, in a general way, that that event is not incredibly far away — that is, not incredibly far away on Betelgeuse's specific timeline within the normal interstellar timeline for a red supergiant. But, no more than that.
And, they know fairly well how powerful of a Type IIa supernova this would be.
Picture a Betelgeuse first becoming as bright as the crescent moon, in the last pre-supernova throes, per that picture.
Then, picturing a massive resurgence at supernova itself, to where it becomes brighter than the full moon. Wouldn't that light up the midwinter sky?
Now, one question? That 640 light years isn't that that far away on other issues. How much supernova radiation bombards our planet?
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