SocraticGadfly: Recession in 2024 instead of this year?

January 16, 2023

Recession in 2024 instead of this year?

And, whether this year or next, bigger or smaller?

Interesting thoughts at New York mag from Jon Turek as interviewed by Eric Levitz.

TLDR version? Turek thinks recession is more likely next year than this, but leaves open the possibility of a "soft landing." He thinks inflation will diminish, but notes a "full reopening" by China is a wild card. He notes that what he (and other economists) call "friendsourcing" could goose the economy — but that this makes inflation still somewhat of a worry.

He largely ignores workers except as an abstract, and but of course, being somewhere in neoliberalism, broadly defined. He ignores the worker-related problems of globalization, and ignores that friendsourcing is also economic nationalism.

My political analysis? Biden hopes for a soft landing, but if there's going to be a recession, would much rather it happened in 2023 than 2024. As for soft landings? Gas prices in my area went up 30 cents last week. Turek also ignores drought in the lower Plains that could hammer this year's winter wheat crop. the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War and other things.

If this were Goodreads, Turek would get 3 stars, no more. Maybe a split vote of 4 for economic analysis and 2 for economic concern.

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