SocraticGadfly: Coronavirus Week 128: Masks do work; correlation is not causation

November 21, 2022

Coronavirus Week 128: Masks do work; correlation is not causation

Time Magazine had three public health officials, one an academic, report on a new study about just how well masking works at schools. The horse is out the barn door on COVID, and I presume it will not get severe enough to require state-level or higher mask mandates. But, in case we have another viral pandemic and either wingnuts or Saint Anthony of Fauci pops off again, good to keep in mind.

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The second item is the biggie. Walker Bragman and some other have been talking about the rise in child RSV cases and wondering if, or even speculating that, it's due to undiagnosed child COVID cases of the past two years.

Really? What if, instead, it's due to the amount of protectiveness that mothers gave toddlers and pre-schoolers the last year reducing their potential naturally-developed immunity? There IS such a thing, and, beyond the Great Barrington folks' angle, it DOES work that way.

Going straight to childhood COVID angles is not only confusing correlation with causation, it's assuming correlation where it's not known if it exists, and ergo, if violates good science because, contra abduction, it does NOT reason to the best inference. Indeed, the RSV rate is higher than the last couple of pre-COVID years. That COULD be due to COVID-based susceptibility. Or, as I note, it COULD be due to diminished natural immunity. And, it also COULD be due to this year's variant being a bad one. It COULD also be due to the last two possibilities interplaying.

But, it likely IS a bit of tribalism against both the Great Barrington types and against Team Biden and Rochelle Walinsky et al for not doing more, and hence being subject to your bankshots.

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