SocraticGadfly: Texas: Will Census delay make the redistricing battle worse?

March 01, 2021

Texas: Will Census delay make the redistricing battle worse?

If a special session for redistricting can't be done until fall, will that make Rethuglicans in the Lege, especially Danny Goeb on the Senate side, less, or more confrontational with Democraps? That said, within the GOP caucus in both houses, will it lessen or increase confrontation between rural and urban Legiscritters? As I've blogged before, the continued stagnancy, even decline, in rural Texas population, especially out in whiter and more wingnut West Texas, will make this an issue. And, how much will Trump lovers among the wingnuts admit that Der Grüppenführer was part of the problem?

• Rural vs suburban Rethugs. This here is definitely going to be interesting, especially on the state Senate side, where some suburban districts with narrow margins will have to stretch more and more out into that declining ruraldom. Likely solution vis-a-vis Democratic complaints will be increased gerrymandering defended on the charge that SCOTUS allows it for incumbency. On the House side, it will be different. It's going to be rural districts cannibalizing each other. Per my linked post, I wonder how much this influenced Drew Springer's decision to jump into the Senate seat Pat Fallon abandoned?

• Trumper vs never-Trumper Rethugs. This could play out on the House side with rural districts that are exurban more than really, really rural. Seats like Drew's former HD 68 or King's. My guess is 15 percent of the House could truly be called "remnant Joe Strausers," 45 percent "semi-wingnuts" to just "plain old wingnuts" and 40 percent "wingnuts deluxe."

• Democraps worried about not always getting out the Hispanic vote "vs" Democraps worried about more of the Hispanic vote drifting Rethuglican again. Dems may show relatively little concern for Valley House districts, especially if they're led by ConservaDems.

• Third-party voters wishing Texas adopted ranked choice voting (or proportional representation!) vs both Democraps and Rethuglicans. (But, squeezed out of the process.)

Getcha popcorn! To the degree rural vs suburban is separate from the Trumper issue, I think there's going to be some surprise dogfights. A number of rurales in the House have a number of years of experience.

No comments: