June 29, 2018

Is a #recession ahead?

Quite possibly, according to some new news from short- and long-term bond yield convergence, which, as the story notes, is a strong sign of a recession likely ahead.

Now, some economists in the piece caution that, due to the Fed's quantitative easing, an eventual inverted curve between short-term and long-term rates means less today than it did in the past. But, even they aren't claiming it means nothing.

Already back in 2016, I took note of economists, and the signals they were seeing, to wonder if we would have another recession; back then, I even wondered if there might be a second Great Recession.

In a postmortem on the Democratic Party for the 2016 elections, I said I expected a recession by the 2018 midterms had a good probability.

And fifteen months ago, I said that the top-heaviness of Obama's stimulus still kept that possibility likely.

And, now, of course, we have a looming and likely trade war. This is an issue I really don't expect Trump to back off of.

GM has now warned that Trump's tariffs could lead to "less investment, fewer jobs and lower wages." Will Trump tell GM "don't get cute" like he did Harley-Davidson?

Meanwhile, the Trump tax scam and other matters have debt, inflation-adjusted, headed to its highest level since WWII. The percentages, per the L.A. Times, of debt to GDP, could eventually be higher than those that have led the European Union to issue warnings, and threats at least, of austerity, to member nations like Italy. Republicans will, of course, start trashing the "unreliable" Congressional Budget Office.

==

Chris Tomlinson thinks a recession is coming too, but not til 2020.

No comments: