November 07, 2016

Electoral vote projection — Hillary no worse than 308-230 (update)

Earlier this year, using a tool from NPR, I predicted that the "worst" outcome (worst used relatively and from the duopoly point of view only) that was realistic was Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton 286-252 in the Electoral College.

Now, with a new tool from Five Thirty Eight, unless I'm underestimating any possible reverse Bradley Effect, I don't see any realistic way for Trump to win. The "worst" I see is Clinton, 308-230. Under that worst, the Senate would probably be no better than a 50-50 tie, but that's all Dems need on paper, excluding the problem of such nominal "Democrats" as Joe Manchin.

(Update: If non-college white resentment runs a bit higher, it could be ... 303-235. That's exactly where Brains has it; he also sees 50-50 on the Senate.)

In my first prediction, I said a tight guess was 294-244 Clinton. (Update: And a retweak of the parameters on that gives me the same.)

Of course, this was before the bombshell that FBI Director James Comey was reopening his probe into her emails. (Update: And that's now been closed again.)

So, no, she doesn't need my vote. Still doesn't.

UPDATE: As for the popular vote? Expect a plurality for Clinton, but I'll give 1-in-3 odds that it's plurality-only, not a majority. She'll probably use that as an excuse to tack right.

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