SocraticGadfly: Is employment recovery just around the corner?

December 14, 2009

Is employment recovery just around the corner?

At Slate, Daniel Gross argues that, just as economists were too late on the curve with their bullishness 2-3 years ago, the same is true on bearishness now, and that we are are just around the corner from a job-market takeoff.

Gross cites a combination of factors:
1. More Obama stimulus money will be disbursed next year
2. Census Bureau hiring (though Gross omits that almost all those jobs are temporary, and the majority of them are PT to boot);
3. Whatever "stimulus 2" jobs bill money/creation gets enacted.

Color me less skeptical of all this than I was before reading Gross's column, but remaining more skeptical than he is. Especially since he neglected the fine print on point 2, and also is relying on a hypothetical in point 3.

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