Prop. 8 leading as time runs out

L.A. late break falling short; Sacramento vote as state bellwether?

Update, 5 a.m. Central – Hope is fading; all the Bay Area counties but Santa Clara are 100 percent reported and we’re still at about 52-48 yes; for the last hour, it's been 51.7-51.8 on the yes side. Late vote reporting in L.A. is narrowing the gap, but I don’t think it’s enough.

We have 97 percent of L.A. now reporting, with the gap down to just over 300,000 voters.

And, there’s a lot of San Diego and a fair amount of Riverside votes still out; by precincts, San Bernardino has even more out. (What’s up with the Southland?) But, all of those are solidly “yes” counties, unless San Diego, especially has some late precincts breaking No like in L.A.

The outstanding votes in L.A. and Contra Costa could reasonably, maybe optimisticly, cut that gap to 250K.

Maybe San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders swayed some of those San Diegans.

Here’s the L.A. Times coverage, with a comprehensive county by county state map with auto-refresh.

A. L.A. County is coming in slowly. Contra Costa and Alameda are about the same. LAC is voting slightly “Yes” so far, though. And, per the L.A. Times, however it affects Prop. 8, more than 82 percent of those eligible voted in L.A. County.

And with it running about 54-46 in favor of Prop. 8, that could spell trouble. I’m curious on the final exits — how many minorities in the Southland voted Yes. It all depends on what parts of L.A. are still out.

B. As of 2:20 a.m. Central time, all of Marin County was in, all of San Francisco County and all of San Mateo. But Santa Clara (South Bay) and Contra Costa and Alameda (East Bay) were still slow. But, especially in light of the 82 percent turnout in L.A. County, the entire Bay Area population doesn’t stack up to LA’s votes. Beyond that, I have no idea why LA is reporting so slowly.

C. At 1 a.m. Central, CNN said exit polls predicted it would lose by the 53-47 margin that was actually reported at that time.

BUT… this may be another case where exits are wrong. Normally, exit polls have a strong Democratic bias, strong enough to make them very unreliable. And, later reports are that exits have been tweaked.

Also here, Yes on 8 forces may have wanted to proclaim something, reversing the normal exit poll bias.

D. Sacramento County may be a bellwether. It split 50-50 on Bush-Kerry and has a demographic profile that fairly closely parallels the state average.

This year, Obama is getting nearly 60 percent of the vote, but Prop. 8 is still wining with most the county in.

Wrap-up and analysis, 5:10 a.m.:

Based on the Sacto returns, I’d say that, sadly, Prop. 8 will win.

And why? In a phrase, black ticket-splitters. I’m sure Obama’s mug in the Yes on 8 ads at the end did nothing but add to that, despite him cutting a No on 8 spot.

Beyond that, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom is probably Reason No. 2, if Prop. 8 wins, as far as self-inflicted wounds.

And, is there a gay-rights equivalent of the Bradley effect? Prop. 8 strategist Jeff Flint certainly thinks so.