January 15, 2013

Did Nats overpay for Soriano or not? And Lohse and #StlCards?

Well, Scott Boras has gotten one of his remaining free agents signed.

Rafael Soriano is headed to the Washington Nationals. Price? Yahoo says 2 years, $14 million per year, plus an option year for the same price.

If you say that each full point of Wins Above Average is worth about $6 million, then, per his performance last year, it's a good deal for the Nats, arguably even a shade of an underpay.

But, as folks like Jonathan Papelbon (looking beyond just saves) and Brad Lidge have shown us, many a good closer can suddenly spit the bit, either temporarily, in Papelbon's case, or permanently, with Lidge. True, Soriano had great saves years in 2009 and 2010, but the likelihood of him being worth the full $14M each of the three years (I'm assuming he appears enough in this year and 2014 to vest that option) seems less likely.

So .... it's still possibly to probably a good deal the full three years, but not guaranteed so.

That said, the Boras logjam is broken a bit, at least.

So, quo vadis Kyle Lohse? Back to the Cardinals, for perhaps a similar deal? Or on down the road?

I'd be willing to give him a similar contract. Chris Carpenter is certainly a question mark after his contract expires after this year. Certainly, Jake Westbrook is at least a question mark if not a see you later after this year.

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