SocraticGadfly: Russia-Ukraine, Week 11B: Don't cream your panties about Saudi oil, Blue Anon

June 02, 2022

Russia-Ukraine, Week 11B: Don't cream your panties about Saudi oil, Blue Anon

Reuters, referencing a semi-breathless Financial Times piece (and FT itself if you subscribe) should be read carefully.

The Saudis will ONLY pump more oil, at least a significant greater amount, IF Russian production falls significantly. Unless Warmonger Joe sells Zelenskyy long-range bombers that can hit the Caspian, let alone West Siberian drilling, that output ain't falling significantly any time soon.

So, the EU can claim it wants to cut itself off from Russian oil by the end of the year, but SOMEBODY's going to have to buy this.

Now, by the time you read this, we'll be seeing more of just what actually has been promised in stone and what's in wiggle room. The only thing officially scheduled was a modest increase of 430K bbls/day, which as that piece notes, OPEC members will probably struggle to meet right there. I'll eat my hat if there's anything much more than that.

So, going by West Texas Intermediate, average prices may fall below $110. Not below $105. Period. IF OPEC can find bigger increases, it's not happening until the end of July at the earliest

I wrote the above last night. And, this morning, a new, not-paywalled FT piece confirms me. No big production hikes at all, and the July and August ones will only be moderate, 650K bbls/day instead of the planned 400-430. And, international oil prices, which had fallen on the original news, crept back up a bit.

(And, after I blogged this, US gas companies spit in our faces with another 20 cent hike as WTI approached $120/bbl. That said, that's below the $147/bbl of 2008, even without adjustment for inflation. Gas prices stayed lower, though, showing this was an oil speculation bubble that quickly burst.)

So, enjoy losing 50 or more House seats, BlueAnon. (See poll at right.)

And, remember that Biden not just talking about what should be in peace talks, but actually calling for them, like the Goldilocks Three Bears (plus Pope Francis) will lower oil prices.

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