June 13, 2016

Hillary Clinton Veep speculation time

Filemon Vela Jr. —
Hillary Veep material?
OK, it's time to start thinking about this, folks. I don't care for her at all, and will be voting Green, but both personally and professionally, the chess game part is still interesting.

One — what focus?

Hispanic seems very likely. (If she opts for another woman, it could of course be a Hispanic woman.

Elizabeth Warren does NOT seem likely. First, even though she didn't actually endorse Bernie, she didn't endorse Hillary before the end of the primary season, either. Plus, Massachusetts law is clear — contra Harry Reid. The governor — as in, the current Republican governor — names Warren's replacement. So scratch her.

I think Clinton doesn't look for another woman because she doesn't want to look TOO tribalistic, she worries about alienating men, and ...

Because she doesn't want to share her non-historymaking moment.

So, that's that.

(Sidebar: If she asked, and Warren said yes, I'd kind of look down on Warren, even if she really felt she had to "take one" for the Democratic party team.)

So, Hispanic and male because of Donald Trump's self-immolation. That's my guess.

First, rule out either Julian or Joaquin Castro. I'm with you there, Brains.


First of all, Texas ain't in play. Despite what she told Hillary-fellator (sic: I know my sexual anatomy) Rebecca Traister, Clinton herself knows Texas ain't in play. Or should. If she doesn't, she's a lot stupider as a political data-cruncher than I thought. (That said, never assume, eh?)

Second, while somewhat younger appeals to Sandernistas on paper, she doesn't want to go too young, in part lest it make her look too old. The Castros are under 45. (And, per Brains and that link, they're kind of green on the big top of Dem politics, and may not be Friends of Hillary.)

If she does want to go both Hispanic and female ...

California's Linda Sanchez is over 45. (Sister Loretta will face off against Kamala Harris in the general election for Barbara Boxer's open Senate seat, so she's out.)

A dark horse is current Labor Secretary Tom Perez. Being from New York, a safe place, and being Dominican in background, not Cuban or Mexican, likely tells against him.

An INTERESTING choice would be Texas Congressman Filemon Vela.

Yes, I just said Texas is not in play. But, if Clinton wanted an attack-dog Veep candidate, and a Hispanic, the man who told Trump to "shove (your border wall) up your ass" would certainly be high on the list. Age 53 is perfect for Clinton on that demographic. He's "connected." His wife was a former Republican state appeals judge.

Or will it be 'connected'
Michelle Lujan Grisham?
Former Colorado Lt. Gov. Joseph Garcia might be solid, but, at the same time, is low-profile — perhaps too low.

New Mexico Congresscritter Ben Ray Lujan is only two years older than the Castros. Cousin Michelle Lujan Grisham is older and would give her a Latina instead of Latino; she would also counter any (why, I don't know) GOP appeal by Susana Martinez.

In addition, the Lujan family name is still gold in New Mexico, with at least some spillover effect into Colorado, and that cuts across family lines. (Manuel Lujan Jr., still alive, was also a Congresscritter before becoming Poppy Bush's Secretary of the Interior. So, this would be a good play in the Southwest.

That said, I could be shocked and it's Warren after all.

If so, I don't get it. It puts a Senate seat at a loss to the GOP for two years. Remember Scott Brown.

Second, it means Warren is officially Democratic Party first, principles second.

Third, contra DNC and Camp Clinton smiley faces, some men, in a gender-based version of the Bradley Effect, will not vote for a two-woman ticket.

Fourth, Sandernistas, it's NOT HIM, despite a clueless Twitter hashtag. Either wake up and smell the coffee or drown yourself in it. I can't believe that as many as 2/3 of Dems want him as Veep. Lots of scared Clintonistas?


PDiddie said...

Cunning linguist.

Gadfly said...

you said it not me, and Deep Purple

paintedjaguar said...

Of course, it's NOT HIM, and I wouldn't want it to be. Nevertheless, there is some appeal to Cenk Uygar's argument that Bernie should make the VP slot the price of his endorsement. Publicly so, in my opinion. First, as Cenk say's, it would just be spiteful fun to rub it in their faces. Second, since they would never give it to him, their refusal would free Bernie from any obligation to actually endorse Hillary. C'mon, he has almost half of Dem voters (in reality many more than that). He's entitled to ask for something big.