May 30, 2012

Texas 2012 primary observations

Just a few thoughts from last night’s fun, or, “fun.”

1. Let’s not forget that, depending on what the DC Court of Appeals eventually says, we could have more redistricting fun in 2014.

2. Name recognition still matters … even if you’re not an incumbent, like Ciro Rodriguez and even Paul Sadler. Maybe even Roger Williams in the “new” Congressional District 25, it seems.

3. At least some Democrats still want progressive options. That doesn’t include you, Silvestre Reyes.

4. Tea party nuttery is alive and well. Will it be “alive” enough to help Ted Cruz in the GOP Senate runoff? I doubt it, but who knows. Will Leppert make a formal endorsement of Dewhurst or not?

5. Let’s see what the Greens do in two weeks.

6. Will Texas be “blue” by 2030 due to Latino influence? First, Latinos aren’t monolithic; Mexican Americans are different from Cuban Americans like Cruz. Second, even, say, Mexican Americans aren’t as solidly Democratic as African Americans. Third, it’s probably overstated, but an old rule of thumb says, that as far as numbers versus actual turnout, one white voter equals two blacks equals three Hispanics. So, I would offer a tentative “no” to that issue.

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