SocraticGadfly: Quo Vadis Albert Pujols? Likely not St. Louis, as we look at Cards' batting needs

January 22, 2022

Quo Vadis Albert Pujols? Likely not St. Louis, as we look at Cards' batting needs

As free agency waits in limbo after a hot pre-lockout start, even though the Cards primarily need pitching, some fans are speculating about hitting as well.

And, their thoughts have turned to the Phat Albert guy.

Albert Pujols is one that many Cards fans are saying "bring him back." And, in doing so, bringing yet more derision to the "Best Fans in Baseball" moniker.

First, if there is no NL DH (let us hope), he's only coming back on a one-day retirement deal. And, even if there IS an NL DH? Paul Goldschmidt is a righty first baseman and the team might do the common AL route of giving starters a blow from fielding. Especially if all outfielders are having decent batting years, that would be likely. And, would Albert take a contract at little more than the minimum? Beyond that, he's almost certainly at least one if not two years older than he claims.

Phat Albert, when he announced he was planning to play Dominican winter ball for the first time. told Red Satan and the Orange County Register he's ready to play next year. And? For how many dineros and how much playing time. He swallowed some pride to go to the Dodgers and platoon, but I still wonder if part of that was a "fuck you" across town to the Angels. And, let's not forget that his actual age next year will almost certainly be 43, maybe 44, and not 42.

There's one other reason he won't go to St. Louis. 

And, that is that the Cards are righty-heavy in the infield, especially if Matt Carpenter doesn't come back after the team declined his option. Tommy Edman is a switch-hitter. Everybody else is straight righty. Of outfielders, Dylan Carlson switches and Justin Williams, outrighted to Memphis and eligible for minor league free agency, per MLBTR, is the only actual lefty the team had there this past season.

The lockout has likely further complicated things for Pujols, and will do so more and more the longer it lasts. That's if he's actually signed to a real contract versus the old "invite to spring training."

There are several reasons for this. 

First, free agent movement of players who are a bit younger and more spry than Pujols, but still near the bottom of the free agency spectrum needs to sort itself out, after whenever the logjam ends.

Second, teams need to learn what sort of ask Albert and his agent have. Could be realistic. Could be ridiculous, as noted above.

Third, and probably intertwined with the lockout, is whether the NL adopts the DH for the coming year or not. That changes the needs of NL teams.

Fourth, Albert needs to show what he's got in Dominican winter ball. He HAS, while not gotten fat, "thickened" since he left St. Louis, and especially in the last three-four years.

So, Cards fans chanting "Pujols"? The only way he comes to St. Louis is on a one-day "retire as a Redbird" contract. Or, it SHOULD be.

So, No. 2, who "should" the Cards get on the bat side.

Jonathan Villar. Plays all three IF positions besides 1B, and switches. Now, is he willing to play less than full time, especially if the NL doesn't have a DH? Good question. But, allow for him starting a dozen games at each of the three infield spots, a dozen at DH against AL teams under the current structure, for about 50 starts or 200 PAs, and picking up 50 PAs elsewhere, and he might settle for that. He is coming off a one-year FA contract after having been traded one year before that, and again one year before that. Sign him for two years and you can probably get him for decent money.

MLBTR suggests Brad Miller but I'm not sold. He's a defensive negative, doesn't play 3B, though he does play first, and is a straight lefty. (In a new piece, MLBTR says Villar is probably past his best days at short, but since the Cards would be signing him as a utility infielder, that wouldn't be a deal.)

Do that, then focus on the pitching I mentioned before the lockout. The team still needs to upgrade, and with Carp and Dexter Fowler both off the books now, it can afford to do so.

11 comments:

daveminnj said...

Pujols certainly has always looked older than his stated age, but is there any strong evidence?

Also, what's your best guess for 2022 season? April? Memorial Day?
July 4? No season at all? What do you think is the cut off date where they'll just write off the entire year?

Gadfly said...

Once again, good questions, Dave.

First, on Pujols' age? It's mostly circumstantial, but strongly so. Were he a year older, he couldn't have played HS baseball, so he had incentive to knock a year off. Or two. No HS baseball, he likely doesn't go to Osage Community College. So, he's having to immediately land a minor league gig. Related? There's been speculation that, beyond not liking the idea of a 10-year contract in general, Mozeliak had "issues."

==

Second, the season? MLBTR, as you probably know, had a "betting window" open, in early January if I recall. I picked March 29 as the date for a settlement. Now, I'm wondering if that wasn't too early.

I think both sides have room for major compromise.

My tentative ideas are the teams need to go higher on the lux tax, and ideally, ditch arbitration entirely. They also agree to greater revenue sharing. In turn, the players agree to a salary scale at least vaguely similar to the NBA, a real team salary floor as well as lux-tax ceiling and a couple of other things.

Back to the calendar. If I am right on that date? We're talking about May 1 for start of season, even with abbreviating the season. ...

daveminnj said...

Makes sense, thanks. My spidey sense says the season will start Memorial Day rather than early May. Have to factor in the mutual venom.

As the owners declared the lockout, what happens to the players already under contract? For instance, Mike Trout is in the middle of a 13 year, 435M contract, roughly 650K per week. He has lived up to the terms of the contract--how can the owner legally not pay him?

I believe both sides had a pretty large piggy bank at the start of this, but I wonder whose cash is being depleted faster.

Gadfly said...

Regarding Albert now? I just was on his B-Ref page. Uhh, his Dominican winter league stats are as crappy as the Angels two years ago.

On players under contract? That is interesting. I am sure the owners have some sort of legal claims for nonpayment that they make ...

Gadfly said...

And add this breaking announcement by the owners https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33356677/mlb-owners-say-season-shortened-no-labor-deal-reached-monday

daveminnj said...

his Dominican winter league stats are as crappy as the Angels two years ago.
I was there when the Mets signed Willie Mays for 1972-1973 seasons. There was great built up affection for him and his return, but it was so demoralizing to watch this now old man who had no business being on a baseball field

Really don't want to see history repeat itself with Pujols.

Gadfly said...

Oh, geez, Dave, an old memory, that I'm sure you know, too.

1973 World Series. Mays looking to go from first to third on a single and he falls down rounding second, like his wheels just went out from under him.

daveminnj said...

What do you think, after yesterday? Is this season still salvageable?
I feel a loss of hope, but that might be a spillover from The Ukraine.

Gadfly said...

Somewhere around my March 29 bet with MLBTR for a settlement date looks about right, if they don't settle by Thursday or Friday. At that point, the animus will increase over cancelling games or not, compressing spring training or not, and will push a settlement back a couple of weeks. If they don't settle by the end of March???

June or something? Yeah, that's when stuff gets really hinky.

daveminnj said...

Zip-a-Dee-Do-Dah! Your guess was closer than mine, but wow-MLB's apocalyptic stupidity has at least some limits. (Haven't seen the agreement, though. I hope the Union did right)

With such a shortened Spring Training, do you think there will be a spate of weird injuries?

Gadfly said...

First, the agreement? Players reps approved it by a bit more than 2-1, at 26-12. So, seems likely full union will accept. Let's see what owners do. ESPN says the players won more overall, on three biggies: The competitive balance (luxury) tax, pre-arbitration bonus pool, and minimum salaries.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33470321/sources-mlb-union-reach-tentative-agreement-new-cba-salvage-162-game-season

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Players have been doing a reasonable amount of workouts, so, I don't think there will be TOO many weird injuries, other than maybe a few additional hamstring pulls.