August 27, 2013

Old man drought keeps on rolling?

Unfortunately, in addition to being denialists of global warming and climate change, the folks at Texas Farm Bureau seem to think The Old Farmer's Almanac is the be-all and end-all of long-term weather forecasts. Unfortunately, they're not alone; the folks at Nice Polite Republicans repeat the claim that it's going to be generally cooler and wetter than normal this winter, not just in Texas but across most the nation.

Sadly, the National Weather Service strongly disagrees with the idea Texas will have a cool, wet winter. And, contra NPR with the Almanac, I don't "believe" what's a legitimate scientific forecasting model; I "accept" it within the bounds of probability the NWS stipulates.

That said, for the three months of winter, on average, December-February, the NWS predicts almost all the nation is likely to see above average temperatures, and a fair chunk of it, including about all of Texas and most the south central and Southwest, is very likely to see above average temps. On precipitation, most the nation is likely to see average.

That's exactly what winter Texas had this year. And, above average temps, even in winter, here in Texas, mean more evaporation.

Before that, northeast Texas has a slight to moderate chance of above-average precipitation in mid-fall, but the whole state's supposed to continue to have above-average temperatures.

And, looking beyond winter, models for early spring predict a hot one, not just an above-normal one, for much of the Southwest.

In short, don't expect any drought relief.

At the same time, don't expect any climate denial relief from the usual suspects, either.

Beyond that, the NWS' research, paid by your and my tax dollars, is free. As well as better.


No comments: