Arenado to the Cardinals? Really? Wow ... and affordable

Who stuck the poker up the collective ass of Mo and Girsch to do this baby?

Per Red Satan and MLB Trade Rumors, this pending trade for All-Star third sacker Nolan Arenado ain't finalized yet, as the deal must be approved by Commish Corleone because the Rockies are eating part of his contract and by the MLBPA because he's deferring money.

The Cards aren't giving up a lot. Reportedly it would be Austin Gomber, who has a fair amount of potential ... but who knows the reality ... and not much else. Prospects. (MLBTR has the likely list. It's not much.)

Arenado did tumble last year, but could certainly rebound.

It is weird because, as MLBTR notes, Mo/Girsch were cheap asses in the offseason for now, exemplified by declining Kolten Wong's option. But, then, the team gave Adam Wainwright a healthy $8M to come back another year (Waino claims he had better offers from two other teams), and is now in talks to bring back Yadier Molina, and from what I know, Yadi's desire for a 2-year deal has not been scotched.

So, now, the wallet, or as Bernie Miklasz once punned, DeWallet of DeWitt, is open again.

As for the Cards? Matt Carpenter is clearly the odd man out if this goes down. The Cards are fortunate that he has only one guaranteed year left. (He is NOT getting 550 PAs this year, so no vesting for 2022, at least not with St. Louis. A trade is always possible.)

Details, as noted, are sketchy. "Prospects" aren't yet named. The Rockies would eat about $50M of the contract. Arenado would take some deferrals, but no details yet on how much. He'd keep his opt-outs, but move that a year — probably not more than 1 year — per Rosenthal, he'd keep his post-2021 as well get an additional one post-2022 so the Cards would have him 2 years guaranteed. He'd also, says MLBTR in an update, get one more total year.

Update: I originally understood this as he would have just the one opt-out and it would move back a year, hence the material now crossed out. Given how little the Cards are giving up, I still don't think it's bad. And, given that we'll be in another COVID-affected year, I doubt he opts out after 2021. So, it's not a big deal for him to keep the 2021 opt-out AND get another. It does make things a little more dicey, though. But not much. Let's say the Cards only have him for two years. For what they're giving up, it's still a good deal.

 

Update 2: Rosenthal, Red Satan, or both, had some possibly incorrect info, at least on what was being agreed to post-trade. The two opt-outs, per a new Red Satan piece to which I shall not link, are after 2022 and 2023. So, the Cards have him for two years, guaranteed, and he says he has no plans to leave anyway. I think. Maybe he now has THREE opt-out years, the original one after 2021 AND the two new ones???

Back to the original thread.

And, a bunch of money comes off the books in 2022, per Cot's Contracts. Besides Carp, Dexter Fowler is also out of contract next year. Andrew Miller's option for this year vested, but he won't be back at $12M in 2022. And, the enigmatic, injury-challenged, Carlos Martinez will surely be offered a $500K buyout after this year rather than the team picking up his $17M option unless he has a hell of a turnaround.

That would make Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt the only players on the team, right now, guaranteed to make more than $10 million in 2022, barring Yadi getting a guaranteed two-year deal with that scratch.

The team might try a "sign-out" of his third year of arbitration plus free agency on Jack Flaherty, or more likely, if this year, his second and third arb years plus one year, maybe two, on FA. John Gant is the only third-year arbitration player in 2021.

It's also interesting that ONLY Mo, not Girsch, was handling the Arenado rumors.

That said, Paul DeJong is signed through at least 2023, and it's likely the team picks up both of his option years. Tommy Edman presumably slots into Wong's position and becomes the regular second baseman. He doesn't even clear his arb years until 2025. Goldy's signed through 2024, so, for better or for worse, the Cards' infield is definitely set for two years with Arenado, and if he opts in, for at least four, in all likelihood.

 

Looking ahead? I'd pay for one good starter in free agency next year. They can be a soft-tosser to some degree, as long as they're good and give indications of not having and not being likely to have arm problems. With Fowler gone, if none of the kids in the OF makes a step forward, then it will be time to look at how to address that, too.

Xi Jinping Thought further exposed, further weakened

Chinese President Xi Jinping is actually throwing the motor into reverse on "rule of law" in the country, especially when it applies to private sector businesses.

First, contra neoliberal Democrats who are now giving at least face time in the Biden Administration to taking a new look at trade issues, and contra old-line Big Biz Republicans (aka Bushies) this shows that Trump was right. "Engagement" has done nothing to open up China. 

Trump, of course, botched how he handled China by also engaging in tariff wars with the EU and Canada at the same time as with China, rather than recruiting them as allies.

Second, contra Howie Hawkins, Margaret Flowers and Kevin Zeese, Rainier Shea of the People's Republic of Humboldt Bay, and Aaron Maté and the rest of the allegedly outside-the-box stenos who claim that Uyghur concentration camps don't exist, this further shows that you can't trust Xi, and that guzzling Xi Jinping Thought Kool-Aid is addictive. (Don't forget that Aaron's pal Max Blumenthal even writes for Chinese equivalents of RT, even as people like them like to talk about the likes of Voice of America as propaganda.

Fortunately, such addicts are becoming a smaller and smaller part of the voice of the Western world in general. As of late last year, Xi's global approval rating was almost as low as Trump's.

Texas Progressives wonder: Is the Biden honeymoon ALREADY over?

Well, it couldn't last forever, could it?

Besides wingnuts saying it's over, Andrew Sullivan shows again why paying people on Substack ain't worth it (and most brought their cults of fanbois from elsewhere anyway). Sully puts Joe Biden and Ibram X. Kendi in the same breath, sentence and neighborhood. He also deplores Status Quo Joe hanging out the welcome mat for what he says will be a horde of Ill Eagles far beyond what Dear Leader let in during his eight years. Guess Sully is worried the darker skins will lower the national IQ.

With that, on to the roundup.

Texas

MMM, who doesn't want some wastewater oil production brine to be giving a nice "edge" to their aquifer-pumped drinking water? Well, the Trump EPA said states could, and Railroad Commission head cheese Wayne Christian loves the leeway of deregulation and High Plains state Senatecritter Charles Perry loves the idea.

SocraticGadfly has Janis Joplin singing a Mercedes-based river for Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez.

NAGPRA is of little help in reclaiming ancestral remains for Indian tribes in Texas and nationally who have never been federally "recognized." Many Texas tribes, per the link, have never been recognized.

Does Chip Roy have a future in the Texas GOP, the Monthly asks. (Unasked: How much will Texas or national Dems try to "normalize" him?)

Off the Kuff has a look at 2020 Presidential results by Congressional district.

Juanita celebrates the Alex Jones lawsuit ruling from the Texas Supreme Court.

The Texas Signal reports on an effort to create a pipeline of Democratic candidates for US Attorney and federal court judge in Texas. 

Rick Casey would like to get rid of gasoline-powered leaf blowers. 

Lauren Hough tears apart a clueless essay from someone who moved to "Austin" with absolutely no sense of geography, reality, or self-awareness. (Hough herself is un-self-consciously funny in part of her response in ways she probably didn't intend.)

National

Your friendly reminder that Status Quo Joe caved to Mulish Mitch when he was Dear Leader's Veep.

How will Mulish Mitch actually handle an entirely constitutional (shut up, Dersh and Luttig) Senate trial?

Seven Senate Dems have filed an ethics complaint against Havana Ted Cruz over the Capitol sedition.

Will My Pillow Guy Mike Lindell take on Trump's encouragement/egging and run for Minnesota gov?

Will Status Quo Joe continue the "forever war" in Afghanistan, chewing up Special Forces just like Dear Leader and the Permatanned Mussolini? You know the answer there. Sadly, the person writing the book from which this link is excerpted is part of the mainstream media, which is generally part of the bipartisan foreign policy establishment.

Related? Counterpunch reminds us that not only did Trump not end "forever wars," most of his base wanted him to extend them and ramp them up. (DiMaggio rightly notes that many left-liberals and leftists were suckers for Trump's propaganda on this issue.)

The DOJ and FBI declining to charge some Jan. 6 Capitol rioters or insurrectionists, as is under debate, would send exactly the wrong message to them, and to minorities and allies from BLM and related protests who have already seen unequal justice on arrests and policing.

The seditionist who tweeted "Assassinate AOC" is the latest to raise the Nuremburg defense.

The most recent switch in weather in California is why we talk about "climate change" and not just "global warming," wingnuts.

Noah Smith has a fair-to-middling RIP on Bernie Sanders as a political movement.

Independent Political Report looks at whether actions against the Rhode Island and Alaska Green Parties weren't just dominoes deliberately set up to create momentum for expelling the Georgia GP for entirely different reasons.

Progress Texas makes the case for expelling Ted Cruz from the Senate. 

Paradise in Hell appreciates some other guys named Joe.

Independent Political Report looks at re

Biden names transsexual Dr. Rachel Levine to HHS position ... And?

First, yes, my blog post headline about President Joe Biden's nomination of Dr. Rachel Levine is correct. Don't like it? I'll be blunt. On this site, on issues like this, first of all, I get the last word, not you.

As for WHY it's right?

Repeat after me:

Sex is not gender and gender is not sex.

Sex is not gender and gender is not sex.

Sex is not gender and gender is not sex.

Also repeat after me a phrase I intend to use more and more as I get older:

Period and end of story.

Period and end of story.

Period and end of story.

Gender may be in part based on biological sex, that is of course true. But, given that women's (and men's) cultural roles, whether stereotypical or not, are culturally based, that's proof No. 1 that gender is not sex.

And, this is very important for other reasons. If, like Dr. Levine, you want to go into a woman's restroom, you're fine. You're a woman, to the best that modern transitioning surgery and medications can make that so. No problem. Likewise on attending a variety of woman's functions. Ditto, if you were a much poorer version of Dr. Levine and needed to use a woman's shelter.

BUT?

If you're a man wearing a dress and makeup, but with no intention of ever sexually transitioning, or even transitioning to the degree your wallet can afford the costs, you're NOT a woman — especially if you make clear that you have no plans to transition and that cost isn't an issue, or that you would still have no plans to sexually transition if cost weren't a factor but it is right now.

That's the difference between "transsexual" and "transgender," and per philosophy of language, and sociology of language as well, it's why I'm careful on what word I use where.

Now, do I think that any agenda Biden has behind the appointment is "nefarious"? 

Unless Levine identifies as a nebulous "trans activist," and is activist, and Biden knew this, no.

I've said before in these pages that I'm not, NOT, not, a "gender-critical radical feminist." Instead, if you want to label me, I'm a "gender-skeptical non-radical feminist."

Per the above, I'm "gender-skeptical" in noting gender ain't sex. At the same time, I do note the two are intertwined. On the third hand, I reject excesses of critical theory on "gender critical," "race critical" and other things that come primarily from certain segments of academia.

On the third hand, Levine DOES appear to support UNWARRANTED medical interventions on gender-dysphoric youth. She's therefore a danger to kids, and also a violator of her Hippocratic oath.

Did I say "unwarranted"? Yes I did, and I've written before on WHY. Twice. 

To start?

Without "prods" from reading too much social media or other things, 60-90 percent of gender dysphoric adolescents stay with their birth sex — and come out as gay or lesbian.

The author, Debra Soh says:

Previous research has shown that homosexuality is associated with gender-variant behaviour in childhood. All 11 studies following gender dysphoric children over time show the same finding – if they don't transition, 60 to 90 per cent desist upon reaching puberty and grow up to be gay.

There we go.

Dr. Kenneth Zucker has similar figures, per this piece in part about him winning a wrongful termination lawsuit. (Sidebar, and an "interesting" one: Soh, as well as Zucker, is in Canada, though Zucker was born in the U.S.)

But, we can just use puberty-blockers, can't we, without physical or mental risk, even if they may not be as necessary as some "trans activists" claim?

Wrong.

I stand with the Mayo Clinic, which notes that puberty blocking medications should only be used for children who:

• Show a long-lasting and intense pattern of gender nonconformity or gender dysphoria.
• Have gender dysphoria that began or worsened at the start of puberty.

Note that the first stipulation has an AND, not an OR. The dysphoria must be BOTH long-lasting and intense. Note also the second stipulation. Gender dysphoria that starts after puberty should NOT be treated with these medications. And these bullet points, plus two others, including one that says a child who is a candidate for such medications should at the same time be addressing any "psychological, medical or social problems" that could interfere with such treatment.

I also stand with the Mayo Clinic, vs those who I will consider and call "child transgender manipulation activists," in that these medications, from what we already now, likely DO have some long-term effects. I've seen, and it's a public Facebook group, so no privacy violations, direct claims that such medications have no such effects. When I pointed that out, the leading advocate just "moved on" to another talking point. PBS's Frontline has more about possible long-term effects. Any major multiyear hormonal changes on a pre-adult, a child, are almost guaranteed to have some brain effects. Frontline also notes (as of the time of the piece) that use of puberty blockers for gender-dysphoric children is an off-label use.

More here.

“The bottom line is we don’t really know how sex hormones impact any adolescent’s brain development,” Dr. Lisa Simons, a pediatrician at Lurie Children’s, told FRONTLINE. “We know that there’s a lot of brain development between childhood and adulthood, but it’s not clear what’s behind that.” What’s lacking, she said, are specific studies that look at the neurocognitive effects of puberty blockers. The story also notes that there’s health risks behind transitioning hormones, and that these risks may vary based on the age at which they’re started.

Here's another piece about long-term effects for women who received Lupron for other reasons. (Leupron is the main trade name for leuproleptin, the only puberty blocker on the market.) Besides thinning bones, similar problems such as thinning tooth enamal and joint issues are listed.

Meanwhile, the BBC reported last fall that the newest British research study both found some possible mental health side effects and had ethical problems in the study itself. But, many Radically Active Transgenderism Supporters continue to claim that there's basically no problems.

Beyond that, which I had forgotten until doing a blog search, I first wrote about the willful misuse of the word "transgender" 15 years ago. For whatever reason, I didn't use "transsexual" as a blog tag before this point, though. But, that's been fixed.

At the same time, I'm not blind to politics that are involved on different sides of this issue. Some wingnuts want to deny that there is any such thing as being born to the wrong sex, and therefore reject transsexualism as well as transgenderism. On the "other" side (there's more than two sides, as this piece indicates, or should), there's a large SJW-type contingent. It's their effort to "thank" for the word "transsexual" being considered pejorative by many.

Coronavirus week 42: Vaccine-resistant strains, more

COVID is still not going anywhere; sadly, the increased wearing of masks in rural/red areas is also not going anywhere. That's doubly important because some new variants may have greater vaccine resistance, even as Merikkka may well pass 450,000 deaths by the end of this month and is almost certain to pass 500,000 by the end of February.

So, with that in mind, and because this is global pandemic, we start with global-level news. Let's dig in to what we have for this week.

First, a reminder. We're now at anniversaries stage, as last Thursday was one year since the first confirmed US case.

Global

The P1 variant first found in Brazil, like the London and South Africa ones, appears to have increased virulence (but not death rate) versus the original strain. It also MAY (stand by) increase chances of reinfection. (The first confirmed US case has now been reported.)

The Biden Administration and others have talked about delaying second doses of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine to try to stretch it out. From Britain, the UK's rough equivalent of an emergency science group within the National Academy of Sciences strongly warns against that, saying it's likely to create vaccine-resistant strains of the virus.

Lawrence Wright has a long piece about COVID-19 variants and vaccine immunity. The whole thing is worth a read, but the shorter version? The UK variant appears to be no problem on the current vaccines, but the South African variant may indeed have more vaccine resistance. On the new Brazilian variant, it's too soon to say, but given anecdotes coming from that country, it's almost certainly more vaccine-resistant. And, it's not just the current Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Any COVID vaccine that is mRNA based and targets a virus in the same way they do is vulnerable to having props knocked out from under it if the virus shows fairly rapid evolution.

With all this in mind, it's why I said last week that I doubt a universal vaccine against all coronaviruses will ever be feasible. The expense of gearing a new one up every year, vs. the annual flu vaccine, with the added issue that it would likely, on average, be only 50 percent effective vs the flu jab being 70 percent effective, all argue against it.

 

National

 

The New York Times says that the slowness of the vaccine rollout means that it won't be safe to end social distancing measures until this summer.

 

Via guest blogger Dorit Reiss, Skeptical Raptor updates his previous comments on employer vaccine mandates. Reiss notes that Pfizer and Moderna were both approved under EUAs and that there's never been a test case over whether or not an employer can require an EUA vaccine. Reiss says that, as she sees it, the framework still lies in favor of the employer, but it's not a slam-dunk. She adds that things like collective bargaining will have other restrictions.

Texas

State Rep. Carl Sherman, who I knew long ago in my Today Newspaper days, is the latest who "got it." Per the Trib, kudos to the Texas House, with members actually LESS WINGNUT in the Texas GOP in the pink Capitol dome than their counterparts in the white one in DC. The Texas House UNANIMOUSLY voted to require masks on the floor. 

The state's unemployment rate remains high, and that doesn't include underemployment, wage cuts at many full-time jobs, and more. Reminders to wingnut-lite Gov. Strangeabbott all the way to wingnut de luxe Shelley Luther on "reopen Texas": Dead people don't shop.

And, COVID deaths continue to fall hardest on people in service-type jobs who have few options.

The latest case surge in Texas is in the upper Valley, north and south of Laredo. (Yeah, I know, that's technically not part of the "Valley" to most Texans, but you know what? If we're being really technical, geologically speaking, there is no such thing as a Rio Grande Valley at all. So shut up.)

Dan Solomon actually writes a story for the Monthly that isn't a feel-good indulgence of Texas myth, but rather, a claim that on total infections, it's worse than we hear, as he wonders when "normal" will return.

The UK variant is in the Metroplex.

National

Fauci says Trump wouldn't let him go on Rachel Maddow. So, telling Platonic "noble lies" is fine, but having balls is not.

Could we all finally, maybe, be getting relatively cheap N95 masks? If so, will anybody require wearing them, not just "a mask"? (The answer is yes in several European countries and haha [sardonic laugh] tis to die for in Merikkka.)

Neoliberal Dems are also climate change semi-minimalists

So are many of their media friends, like William Wallace-Wells at NY Mag, claiming the war over climate denial has been won.

Whether it has or not is one thing. I don't think it has, but, if claiming it has is because you think neoliberal market-based actions will fix everything, as Wallace-Wells does, it certainly has not been one.

Or, it HAS been won, because per Pogo, "We have met the enemy and he is us."

WW does halfway admit that 2.5C or more, not just 2C, is semi-baked in unless we act now.

But, after that, it's a fail.

Reality, as noted here before? The Paris Accords are toothless Jell-O and Biden having the U.S. rejoin them does noting to make them less toothless. And, Biden's old boss, Dear Leader, was one of two people, along with Xi Jinping, to make sure they're toothless. (This, in addition to his lies on Uyghur camps, is another reason to despise Howie Hawkins and any other leftists and left-liberals who give Xi a pass on anything.)

Further reality? I don't know what he thinks about Xi Jinping, but at the Nation, John Nichols (shock me) loved him some of Biden's pseudo-green taint.

Further reality? 

The curves are bending even more slowly than WW claims. 

Coronavirus didn't bend the curve that much, and its effects are temporary.

The slow bending is likely too late, unless we do a real, non-Democrat Green New Deal.

The bipartisan foreign policy establishment likes to lick Xi's pseudo-green taint.

==

Another neoliberal climate change minimalist, or  to be technical, a salvific technologist? Elon Musk, who still believes carbon capture is both doable and a real too. (Salvific technologism is also part of WW's schtick.

So, Democrats, like Republicans, will fiddle will LA and DC burns. They'll just play nicer, louder music.

And, a reminder: The most recent switch in weather in California is why we talk about "climate change" and not just "global warming," wingnuts.