SocraticGadfly: 2/6/22 - 2/13/22

February 12, 2022

So, presidents can't control gas prices (or the general economy)?

Well, if "control" means fully control, that's true, and would even be true if the US were less federalist and more of a centralized national government, a la France. But, Macron also can't totally control the French economy. Setting aside acts of God, Xi Jinping might not 100 percent control the Chinese economy.

But, US presidents can influence the economy. And, they can influence oil prices, either directly influence oil prices, or influence the larger economy, which will then influence oil prices, and of course gas prices.

Take Shrub Bush 15 years ago. By 2006 or 2007, people who were educated news readers knew something about the housing bubble and why it was bubbly. Bush could have leaned on the Fed to start easing air out of that bubble, as well as leaning indirectly on the accreditation agencies to stop rating shit sandwich CDOs etc as being significantly above shit grade.

But, he didn't. And, no, I don't think he was totally idiotic about this. Yeah, he got gentleman's C's on his MBA, but he got an MBA.

That wouldn't have controlled the economy, but it would have influenced it. And, it would have influenced oil prices from not going to $147 a barrel (about $125-130 in today's terms). 

Or, before then, LBJ's guns and butter certainly influenced the economy. So did Nixon's price controls attempts.

As for influencing oil prices more directly?

Well, Russia IS the second-largest producer of oil after Saudi Arabia, and though it uses more itself, it's still a major exporter.

And, gee, WHY are oil prices so high right now?

Yes, recent winter storms were a factor, but as West Texas Intermediate threatens to approach triple digits, we all know the biggie: Russia and Ukraine.

And, those of us who aren't part of the bipartisan foreign policy establishment know the roots of all this: Slick Willie Clinton breaking Poppy Bush's promise not to expand NATO eastward. That then has been followed by hints, off and on for 15 years now, or more, that Ukraine (and Georgia, remember that?) would be covered by NATO's "umbrella" in some way. (Maybe we need Roe v Wade type penumbras and emanations?)

Then, there's "who's Ukraine?" Answer: kleptocrats and neo-Nazis. And, other than briefly, during the Russian Civil War, there's not been an independent Ukraine for centuries. Closest to that is the old Kievan Rus of pre-Mongol times.

From Biden's point of view, this is exacerbated by NATO members not wanting to fall fully in line on trade embargoing, and in some cases actively resisting. 

From the sensible point of view, the problems of NATO's European members are exacerbated by Biden, who may get lucky if Macron can get him off his tree limb.

Beyond backing off warmongering, there's other things Biden probably could do at the margins to help a smaller bit.

Could he knock prices back to $70 a barrel? Probably not any time soon. Could he ease them back to the $80/bbl range if he backed off on Ukraine and did whatever he could domestically on the edges?

Yes.

As for those gas prices? Panicky Democrats like Maggie Hassan and Mark Kelly wanting to nix the federal gas tax right now? This is a lower-grade version of the same dumb as suspending FICA taxes and other things. It's only 5 percent of the current cost of gas prices, and, since it hasn't been raised, well, since Slick Willie kneecapped Boris Yeltsin on NATO, it's part of why we needed Biden's infrastructure bill — our highways are crumbling.

And, Status Quo Joe's idea of releasing 50 million barrels of strategic reserve oil? We import 6 million barrels a day, and that is going up, slowly but surely, as the fracking miracle becomes hollow. Backing off warmongering would help a lot more. (We imported 10 million barrels a day in 2018.)

February 11, 2022

Plant-based food: The new gluten-free?

Thanks, Sprouts! Without your ad:

I never would have known that bread is a "plant-based food."

You know what else is a plant-based food?

Oreos. (Not Hydrox, though, unless they stopped using lard.)

Kettle fried potato chips. (Not that they use an actual kettle at Frito-Lay, I'm sure.)

Marshmallows.

You get the idea.

I don't know the "why" of this; I suspect it's "vegetarianism for people who don't want to call themselves vegetarians" or something similar.

Per the above, vegetarianism isn't necessarily healthy, of course.

Nor, to the degree something like kettle chips is based on monocrop agriculture, is it environmentally friendly, environmentally sustainable or something else. Fried crickets and even grass-fed beef (as long as that's 100 percent of the feed cycle) are more environmentally friendly and sustainable, arguably. Definitely so with fried crickets; can't ever picture them being overharvested.

So, yeah, this is like stamping "gluten-free" on foods that never had any gluten in the first place.

You know, like this plant-based kettle chips that are also gluten-free.

But, per H.L. Mencken, nobody ever went broke underestimating American intelligence about food and food marketing.

February 10, 2022

Texas Progressives talk school exodus and more

No, contra the state association for homeschooling, it's not parents yanking their children, but, between being worn out by COVID issues and now, Matt Krause et al's book hunting battles, a number of North Texas superintendents are retiring. While the story mentions Metroplex districts, I know of three small rural superintendents who have also retired, though they're all waiting until the end of the year.

The rent is too damned high, and thanks to our Tex-ass Legislature, there's little you can do about it.

Off the Kuff comments on the SD10 redistricting lawsuit, which could have caused the March primaries to be delayed, but won't.

"Ken Paxton is the best, worst example of Texas exceptionalism." Texas Observer doesn't go wrong with the story behind that homepage headline (which is a bit different, including the word "corruption," on the story page.) It was the Observer's parent that filed the original complaint against Kenny Boy seven-plus years ago. It's not just him, though. The "framing" by the Observer notes several other state AGs during this time period who have either resigned or else been successfully prosecuted.

Even as state newspapers continue to seek Kenny Boy's Jan. 6, 2021, communications with The Donald, the House investigation committee may be wanting the communications of his primary foe, Goehmert Pyle. (The Dallas Observer IS doing a large amount of reading between the lines.)

Stace asks why two Latino GOPers are pretending to run for head immigration agent and why local Latino Dems haven't said anything about it.

SocraticGadfly takes a critical look at "gotcha" social media about the not-so-great freeze.

Collin College still sucks on free speech.

Adam Serwer weighs in brilliantly on the Whoopi Goldberg situation.

The New Yorker has one of the best summaries on Trump's Jan. 6 papers release.

Evil MoPac invited us to play Texas Winter Storm Bingo.

Rick Casey found another way that Greg Abbott screwed cities.

Dan Solomon shows us the Texas connection to Fermat's Last Theorem.

Hannah Dellinger talks about the 2021 freeze and its effect on mental health.

Reform Austin asks what the heck we're doing to public school teachers.

CultureMap reports on the (uncredited) appearance by Houston barbecue restaurateurs Blood Brothers BBQ on The Bachelor.

February 09, 2022

Green nuttery isn't that rare, re Jan. 6 false flag + COVID

Whether it's over COVID, and claims of either 5G, chipping, capitalist profiteering making COVID more than just the flu, or something else, a fair chunk of Greens (maybe more than Republicans or L/libertarians) believe such nuttery.

And? Per the currently featured post about horseshoe theory, many of said Greens believe that Jan. 6 was a psyops or false flag.

How many? 

This many:


Per the poll above that featured post.

And, that is only those who believe it was a false flag, whether by the government or by antifa. It doesn't even poll Greens to ask how many may believe that it was a non-false flag, but justified because there was actual Democratic-driven election fraud. I've heard that from Greens, too.

I created the poll a year ago because many Greens don't want to hear it and don't want to admit it. The Green Party's official FB group refused to put up my original post about it, the censorious bastards. Over on MeWe, Charles Keener removed me from a group there.

Meanwhile, per this new post, Green Party flunkies like Wisconsin chairman Dave Schwab keep themselves in willful denialism.

February 08, 2022

Coronavirus week 96: Omicron and herd immunity

Infection-based immunity to Omicron is less potent than vaccine-based immunity, just like with Delta. Keep that in mind the next time a winger talks about "natural immunity." (Also remember that vaccines are made by human beings and thus natural.)

The White House wants to move the public mindset from pandemic to endemic. Fauci already hinted at this. But, this is as much perception as anything. Can it pull it off? Color me half-skeptical. The tribalism that COVID has fostered, mainly among wingers, but also among Blue Anons who believe Fauci can do no wrong and has done none, is part of the problem.

At least in Texas, and probably nationwide, the pandemic has exacerbated teen girls' suicide rate. The lack of mental health for such kids nationally, and above all in last-ranking (shock me) Tex-ass, is disgusting.

Vermont shows the benefits of vaccination.

February 07, 2022

Does the 14th Amendment bar Madison Cawthorn from running?

Per NPR, a special commission of local election judges in North Carolina will soon determine that.

Contra a Cawthorn legal spox, James Bopp Jr., it's clear there was an insurrection. The First Amendment angle? From what we know publicly, it might be hard to link Cawthorn's comments to "engaging" in insurrection. But, what about texts, etc., like the ones Texas newspapers want from Ken Paxton? Speaking of, why won't people level this charge against Paxton? Probably because it has no chance of flying here. I mean, I assume with a statewide office, it goes directly to the Secretary of State, and John Scott, or some later flunkie du jour of Strangeabbott's ain't doing nothing.)

That said, contra lawyer Bopp, the 14th Amendment itself mentions "aid and comfort" as well as "engage." (Shock me that Bopp doesn't discuss that.) For that matter, Missouri wingnut Josh Hawley's open-air fist salute could arguably be "aid and comfort."

And, per the amendment, state officials as well as federal ones, take an oath to the Constitution of the U.S., and not just Tex-ass or whatever other state they're from.