Who wins? My thoughts

As I've said all over the place, I voted for the Commie because I wasn't doing Jill Stein.

That said, Claudia de la Cruz mathematically can't win, and Jill Stein won't anyway.

So, it is between Kamala is a Zionist Cop and Dementia Don, aka Too Disorganized to be a Real Fascist Trump.

Who wins?

Going with Allan Lichtman and his 13 Keys, and what the likes of Cajun Conehead Carville have said in the last couple of weeks, I predict the Zionist Cop wins, in part because I think most the swing states tilt her way, and go her way in the end. In fact, I think the only one she'll clearly lose is Michigan, precisely because she is a Zionist Cop. Even though Stein refused to name an Arab-American from Michigan as her Veep, I think the endorsements she has still put it in Trump's lap eventually. This piece from Mondoweiss confirms that. Interestingly, per that link, he sees just four keys going against Harris, while in early September, he saw five, which means that, post-DNC bounce fading away to the side, he must see this breaking for her a bit.

So, it's off to 270 to Win and its interactive map. And, here's my answer, without resetting every medium blue or medium red to full red, after starting with where it was three days ago:

So, why, on the explainer?

Pennsylvania? I do think, despite Harris' organizational clusterfucks there, that "Kill Tony" and his Puerto Rican racism will hit hard here. Next to it, I see little chance that medium-red Ohio swings, but, there may be enough backlash on the "cat-eating" that the GOP has to play some defense there.

Michigan? Already described above.

Wisconsin? I think the Democrats, despite bitching about Greens, hold serve enough. And, SCOTUS said Brainworm Bobby stays on the ballot both there and Michigan.

Aridzona and Nevada? While Democrats' share of Hispanic votes continue to tumble, I think it will remain solid enough. Both states' Republican parties, meanwhile, have internecine struggles between Trump and non-Trump factions, and especially in Aridzona, between wingnuts and wingnuts squared within the Trump world.

Georgia and North Carolina? I'm splitting them on a hunch. We'll say that Elmo Musk's lies about hurricane aid, and people's willingness to believe this, reflect something there. Georgia? Although Hispanic voters are becoming more important, it's still a big Black voter state that I think breaks Harris.

Finally, other than Michigan and reapportionment of electoral votes after the 2020 Census, this exactly reflects the 2020 map.

Update: No, Harris isn't getting 400 EVs. But, if that Des Moines Register poll even partially reflects a national shift, could she do as well as 2012 Obama? Yes.

In reality, we all lose.

This close of a race will be an invitation to election denialists in Trumpworld. Fortunately, he's not the incumbent.

Second, Harris' Overton window moving is probably not just an election policy. From what I've heard, beyond Gaza, to things like Lina Khan at the FTC, it's real.

Third, this close of results means that, even if Democrats regain the House, it's gridlock on everything outside of Israel on foreign policy and on most domestic policy.

Fourth, the GOP will continue to lose after the election denialism is done. The stain of Trump won't wash out by 2026, and probably not even 2028. And, hell, who knows? Short of a McDonald's fatal heart-attack or coma-inducing stroke, he could decide to run again in 2028.

Fifth, if Kamala is a Zionist Cop DOES lose? I've already started lining up, mentally, though not yet on paper, the reasons she will have lost when the usual tide of Democrap bullshit comes up.

==

Update, per Brains' comment.

Yes, I got it wrong. And yes, you got it right.

Yes, I already knew in Pennsylvania especially, and somewhat in the other "blue wall" states, that her ground organization wasn't that strong. I thought Trump's was enough worse that this wouldn't be critical. 

I probably could have seen that shifting that Overton Window too far right, namely, in explicit campaigning with Republicans and leaning into their comments would backfire.

Otherwise? Per your piece? Other than Michigan, no, Gaza probably didn't crush her campaign. Sadly,  no. Maybe you think I'm cynical with such a thought. No, that's just skepticism, from where I stand. Most Americans don't give a fuck about most the rest of the world.

That said, per the likes of Samra'a Luqman, it appears to have brought a new round of Bernie ⇒ Trump voters, for different reasons than 2016. (I know then that they were less than PUMA ⇒ McCain voters in 2008; not sure what this year's numbers will say, if anybody even parses them.

Other than the general Overton Window? James Carville, who tried to peddle his snake oil, and yes, I'll admit, may have gotten me to stare at the bottle, though not actually drink, said 32 years ago, "It's the economy, stupid." And, no, the economy isn't as good in many place as some talking heads say. 

As for Biden being the most progressive president since FDR? For all his faults on Vietnam, and other things, no, I'll still take LBJ. We can agree to disagree.

I should maybe have thought about Harris' support among working-class Black men, since they started to question Dear Leader at his second election run in 2012, as I noted a month ago.

But? I also called you out on Twitter.

You voted for an investments hypocrite. She is, and she was eight years ago, and the hypocrisy is made worse over Gaza. You were wrong then, and you're wrong now. And, we won't relitigate that here. Suffice it to say that, even though I'm not a Commie, that's part of why I voted for one. (The fact that everything leading up to Stein being a three-time retread shows the GP is past its best-buy date is another. Let me know if the party avoids a nominee who plays footsie with antivaxxers in 2028; ditto for Texas Greens not nominating another antivaxxer fellow traveler in 2026, while I'm there.)

Wrong, Sam Husseini, on Vote Pact

First, does anybody besides Husseini write anything for VotePact, which is based on a voter version of old Congressional "twinning" or "pairing" on important votes when one member was absent, and so, a member of the other side would absent themselves.

Seriously. 

There's 10 articles on its homepage, and he wrote all of them.

So, we're going to assume this is some pet project of his.

And, it's wrong.

First, there are other third parties of both left and right besides Greens and Libertarians. (This sets aside that many Greens aren't really "left." This doesn't set aside that Libertarians, contra their protests, ARE "right.")

I mean, as I've said more than once on both here and Substack? I voted for the Commie. 

Second, contra this piece by Husseini? No, the two parties don't have that much in common.

His bullet point five, that Libertarians as well as Greens are "anti corporate rule"? Really? Where did that come from? Ditto on six, "Main Street over Wall Street."

And, on all environmental issues, Libertarians believe that "moar capitalism" is the solution for the climate crisis, pollution, etc. Libertarians oppose regulation in general.

And, beyond that, the LP platform says NOTHING, really, about business in general.

I'm shaking my head so hard I'm at risk of spraining my neck.

And, if he's got teh stupidz on this, I further withdraw my cutting him any slack on COVID and WIV.

Third, this is to misunderstand the tribalism into which duopoly politics has descended. Most of the more rabid duopoly voters are not pairing off their presidential votes. Just ain't happening.

The Arab-American and Muslim-American "break point" in this election

Mondoweiss has a good piece on that here. Both groups are in the header, because, especially among Lebanese-Americans, many are Christian. (Side note: A big STFU to Nassim Nicholas Taleb with his claims that Lebanese aren't Arabs, or at least, that the Lebanese language isn't Arabic. Per Reddit, he's full of it, and for the reasons he's been called out over it. More on that here. But I digress.)

First, I'm not surprised that, beyond endorsements by various groups, Green Party nominee Jill Stein is getting pledged on the street support — especially but not just in Michigan. (I didn't vote for her, as noted here before, because she's an investments hypocrite, but she's clearly not either Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump on Gaza, etc.)

I get, in a sense, those sticking with Harris because of lesser evilism. (Sidebar: I get, or rather, I "get," the "connected" like James Zogby sticking with her, but in the case of the likes of him, contra the man or woman on the street, I find this odious. He knows better. And could do better.)

I do not get those who see Trump as lesser evilism. And, the Mondoweiss story spells out why they're wrong, based on Trump's past history. That Samra'a Luqman, extensively profiled, is the biggie. Assuming it's the same person who has a lot of non-political hits on Google, she's a professional person and ergo, theoretically, not an idiot in general. But yet, despite being of Yemeni background — a country under Trump's travel ban, as Mondoweiss notes, she's not only supporting Trump, she's active in that support.

I mean, voting for Stein would "punish Harris," which is what Luqman fought to do to Biden in the Michigan Democratic primary. But, it would do so without cutting off your nose to spite your face. Or, if you have relatives back there, cutting off your family's access to the United States to spite your face.

But, wait, it gets worse? She's apparently a butt-hurt Berner who like other Bernie Sanders  ➡ Trump nutters, has decided to take the ultimate deep dive into an empty pool.

 

Update: Luqman is behind the curve. Stein has a slight lead over Harris among Muslim-American voters in the last CAIR poll, whether Arab-American or not. 

Robert Roberson and Texas GOP internecine battles

Shock me that Ken Paxton is lying about Robert Roberson. Good on state House Committee on Criminal Jurisprudence for doing a point-by-point rebuttal. Also shock me that Kenny Boy has Tony Tinder(holt), Briscoe Cain and six other House GOP wingnuts attacking the House committee with biased language.

That said, per this Trib piece, the eight wingnuts aren't alone. As noted, the Court of Criminal Appeals has NEVER ordered a new trial for a death row inmate off the 2013 junk science law.

Besides Kenny Boy, the House committee members, and other conservatives with a conscience, face a bigger obstruction.

Danny Boy Goeb is dead set against more criminal justice reform, or more teeth for the junk science law. Contra his spox's blathering? A key tell, the House passed a bill last year to put more teeth into the law. It never even got a committee assignment in the Senate.

That then said, many House Republicans, like Jeff Leach, have gotten firmer on this issues, working with the likes of Democrat Joe Moody.

Texas Progressives offer last pre-election Roundup

Kenny Boy Paxton has agreed to stop targeting GOTV organizations while a federal appeals court looks at a district court's ruling that the state law he's been relying on is unconstitutional. The related lawsuit is probably part of the issue; if the Fifth Circuit upholds the lower court ruling, Paxton could be facing punitive damages.

What were the odds on a MAGAt assaulting an election clerk?

Meet Sally Duval, the "pot lady" running for the Texas House.

John Whitmire, afraid of pro-Palestinian protestors. Contra most pro-Palestinian issues of the last 13 months, not just inside the borders of Texas but inside his hometown, Kuff actually wrote something about this, but ONLY to talk about the legal issues, not the Palestinian issues.

This longform by the Monthly goes into deep details of the obvious: the solution for "controlling the border" and migration isn't at the border.

This Atlantic piece about BYWho's Jewish quarterback, Jake Retzlaff, almost certainly, without me knowing details of all the alleged instances, fuses antisemitism and anti-Zionism. I saw it via Kuff, which is an additional reason to think that.

Meet the people profiting off SB 4, the law passed in the last special session of the Lege in 2023 that claimed illegal immigration was an "invasion" and thus Tex-ass could supersede the feds in enforcement and punishment. More on that here.

Off the Kuff has a first look at early voting. 

SocraticGadfly took a deep dive on the issue of newspaper endorsements, both at the two big newspapers in question, and also the big picture, including it being known inside the industry 20-plus years ago that presidential endorsements are of little value. He'll have a follow-up later this week, looking more at the two papers in question.

Your Local Epidemiologist considers what we know about the new RSV vaccine. 

  Therese Odell vents some well-earned outrage over Trump's latest garbage about veterans, specifically Vanessa Guillen. 

Nonsequiteuse explains what your goals are if you experience interference or problems at the polls.

Butt-hurt editorial staffers and butt-hurt BlueAnon

This is an update on Saturday's piece about butt-hurt editorial/opinion staffers at the Los Angeles Times and the Washington Post, especially with the Times, where this spills into years of ongoing issues about Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong's ownership and allegations of repeated meddling by staff, related issues about whether those claims are overblown or not, and also, straight-up hypocrisy at the Washington Post.

Let's start with the latter.

Seeing someone like genocidalist neocon Robert Kagan quit the Washington Post is ground zero. Let former editor Marty Baron (with his own forever support for Forever War) fulminate away, even as Baron claims the paper — where long-time editorial page editor Fred Hiatt saluted every bit of Forever War every American president ran up the flagpole — was once known for "courage." 

No, you were known for supporting neoconservative Forever War, and you're now known for supporting Genocide in Gaza, Marty. Probably you are individually, as well as the newspaper.  Meanwhile? Kagan's butt, which wasn't even BlueAnon, I don't think, until he became a NeverTrumper, is hurting indeed. I don't doubt he's right about the BlueOrigin angle. I do know he's a fucking hypocrite who won't admit that.

The second big issue, per this NYT piece about how the art of the non-deal went down, is that publisher Will Lewis showed he had no balls. He also has a checkered history back in the UK, but that's not the only reason then-executive editor Sally Buzbee quit. She also thought he had no vision for the paper, which was amply demonstrated long before last week.

That said, the Post did just run a jointly-bylined op-ed protesting Bezos' decision.

And, another shoe has dropped there. Jeffrey himself expressed reservations about an endorsement editorial back in late September.

In a flip the other way, Soon-Shiong's daughter salutes the Times endorsing nobody, because of the Harris-Biden support for the genocide in Gaza, while specifically noting her statement was not an endorsement of Trump. In turn, The Wrap's Ross Lincoln called her claim "risible," which, maybe it is to some degree, but which also says a lot about where The Wrap is coming from, including on itself maybe running flak for Kamala is a Zionist Cop.

Nika went on to double down and claim this is why the family spiked an endorsement, which her dad then rejected, saying that she has no connection to newspaper editorial management and that he's said this before. 

“Nika speaks in her own personal capacity regarding her opinion, as every community member has the right to do,” the owner said, according to a spokeswoman. “She does not have any role at The L.A. Times, nor does she participate in any decision or discussion with the editorial board, as has been made clear many times.”

I've heard Doctor Daddy say that before. That said, he did NOT say why he did cut this off, beyond letting his previous words stand, that he reportedly gave editorial staff the opportunity to do a pro-con and they punted. Also interesting is that the current executive editor is continuing radio silence.

And, this:

“This is not about disagreeing with the owner,” said Ms. Klein, an author and specialist in education who has been with The Times for 35 years, 22 of them as an editorial writer. “To do this a couple weeks before the election is truly doing an editorial — a make-believe, invisible editorial that sends a message that we have doubts about Kamala.”

This led me to a second piece, this one.

Per Doctor Daddy's words, it sounds like this "ask" on his part had been made at least two weeks before his tweet. So, no, it wasn't a last minute thing. Rather, it was, I'm guessing, at least a full month before election day.

In any case, Will Bunch, a reliable BlueAnon flunky, also has a hurting butt.

Beyond THAT? 

Early voting in California started Oct. 7. So, this wasn't a last minute act by Daddy Doctor. I am venturing that he made his ask before the start of early voting, which would be two weeks before his tweet, and instead, the editorial page staff did nothing for two weeks, going into the land of editorial page passive aggressiveness / microaggressions.

At the same time, per Daddy Doctor at the "saying that" link? Doctor Daughter Nika HAS done meddling just like Dear Old Dad, per LAT staffers.

This is a shitstorm nobody will win.

Just like the hypocrisy shitstorm the Bezos Post can't win outside the BlueAnon world.

Nor can its op-ed page, per the one side issue.

Early voting? Started SEPTEMBER 20 in Virginia. Maryland? Oct. 24, so not AS bad. DC actually didn't start until Oct. 28, but if you think your editorial would sway any likely voter in the capital itself??? I have tickets on Bezos' first trip to Mars to sell you.

More seriously, as with Yashar Ali's bootlicking oppo research for Hillary Clinton and his resulting hit piece on Jill Stein in 2016, this failure at these two papers, and others, to allow for early voting makes them look yet more incompetent.

Looking under the hood at 30 years of Counterpunch

The online magazine is pushing hard subscriptions for its anniversary.

But? I may just pass.

Yes, I think I'll pass, Joshua Frank, on donating for your 30th anniversary. And, you're passing out made in China (or wherever) environmentally wasteful T-shirts as bonus merch? Speaking of? How much of all that merch, if any, is made in the US of A? For that matter, how often has CP talked about unions?

As I noted at the end of my hot take on Patrick Cockburn's mendacious bio of his dad? I deblogrolled the individual over Patrick's brother, Alexander, as Counterpunch editor, pushing the anti-Zionism envelope into at least the shallow part of the waters of antisemitism, and I stand by that today.

There's other issues.

One is the continuing bromance Frank and editor Jeff St. Clair have for St. Ralph of Nader. Hard-on might be even more accurate.

Per the end of a recent Substack on my minor-party presidential vote?

The infatuation Counterpunch editor Jeff St. Clair and managing editor Joshua Frank still seem to have for Ralph Nader is a biggie. Nader officially endorsed Biden, albeit shortly before he became Genocide Joe. That said, he never backed off that endorsement, nor the acceptance of lesser evilism behind it. And, recently commenting about that, I said that Nader reminds me of Cornel West’s brief Green bromance. The 2004 Green Party’s national organization details weren’t all good, but they weren’t all bad, either, and they weren’t all anti-Nader. More here on how Nader didn’t want to play ball with Greens. Also per the first link in the paragraph, Nader is arguably anti-labor and unarguably personally a bad boss, on the record from both Kurt Eichenwald and Kevin Shorrock. He also jumped in bed with Randall Terry over Terri Schiavo. And, St. Clair and Frank will tell you none of that, should they know it, or want to know it.

On the electoral politics issue, I covered some of what I see as problems at Counterpunch, and elsewhere, in another Substack a week earlier.

There's other reasons that, in the last six months, CP just has stopped floating my boat today as well. It's not one single thing, unlike Alec's antisemitism combined with a sometimes seemingly reflexive anti-Americanism that reminds me of the likes of Max Blumenthal and Aaron Maté today. It's something kind of like microaggressions.

So, Nathanial St. Clair? Talk to your dad or to the hand.