9 lads who made a killing when WTI went negative and why

Remember when oil price futures, specifically the April contract for West Texas Intermediate, lifeblood of the Permian and of Cushing, Oklahoma, went negative at the end of April? Well, a few people made a helluva killing on that. Here's their story. Part of the "fun" of this all is seeing petrobillionaires (well, he used to be, at least) like Harold Hamm bitch about "market manipulation" when that's exactly how capitalism is supposed to work, isn't it, homeboy?

AND, given that the nine traders who pull this off are associated with a London trading house, it's questionable how much US oversees can punish them, if they deem then needing of punishment.

The bigger yet issue, as I see it, is that US oil futures trading isn't transparent, and to the degree that it's regulated, it's designed to protect the Harold Hamms of the world from the George Soroses of oil, or however we put it. In other words, it's OK for an actual Soros to break Southeast Asian oil currencies, but by god and by Texas, NOBODY had better tamper with the American awl bidness.

This: 

It’s also illegal in the U.S. to place trades during or before the settlement with “intentional or reckless disregard” for the impact.

Is the nutgraf for that observation. In other words, the US oil futures market is a sort of cartel.

That said, it's not just oil. Gas, and cattle and several other commodities also have "trade at settlement" settings. But, none of them, as far as I know, have the settlement date equivalent of having to take physical possession, or metaphysical possession, of 1,000 barrels of crude at Cushing, nor do any of them have the equivalent of a Cushing storage problem. When's the last time you've heard of a crush of cows or hogs causing feedlots to run out of space?

It's the same issue as the Dow Jones removing an Exxon or GE because it loses some luster. It's all about capitalism propping itself up while patting itself on the back.

Coronavirus week 36: Science! And scientific precautions!

 

• Vaccine science: Meet BioNTech co-founders — and husband/wife — Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türecki, and the story behind their creating the vaccine that now is being manufactured by Pfizer. I don't know if any Turks have won a Nobel outside of Literature, but, if this pans out, the whole idea of creating the first viable mRNA vaccine is surely going to short-list them. In addition, the couple, who started their work on antibody work for cancer, still hope for an mRNA based treatments of some sort there. Many other vaccine scientists remain skeptical, but let is see.

• The science goes next to South Korea, with a detailed study (of a type not done in the US, even in "blue states," by and large) of how the coronavirus can spread in a restaurant — and well beyond the six-foot social distancing line. A summer study here in the States, broader, on how HVAC systems work, notes that by drying the air out, they can aerosolize droplets, helping increase their spread. I attest to this as a local newspaper editor, as for calls to get fresh air into school buildings. But, per that second link? That drives your electric costs a lot higher! This is all, of course, important because a jab is not a cure. Assuming that Phase 3 clinical trial information, when it comes to the public, shows the vaccine is 70 percent effective? That's not 90-95 percent. 

• Yet more science: It's nice to see Carl Zimmer, if not pumping the brakes on direct vaccine enthusiasm, remind us that the coronavirus will continue to evolve — as it has been during the pandemic — and that how much and how quickly it continues to do so will affect vaccine efficacy. 

Example of that evolution last week: The NFL's Baltimore Ravens, hit hard by the virus, reportedly had four different strains show up in testing of infected players. Remember that, with the annual flu vaccine, it fights some strains better than others, and sometimes, as two years ago, it takes a semi-whiff because the most prevalent strain that flu season evolved the most from the time the year's vaccine was being finalized.

None of this is meant to give comfort to antivaxxers. Seventy percent effectiveness is still a lot more than 0 percent, which is what no vaccine is.

• Coronavirus public health science: STAT has a deep dive into issues of vaccine administration.

STAT adds this important point:

One of the biggest questions about these vaccines is: Will they stop people from being infected? Or will they just prevent infected people from becoming sick by jump-starting an immune response? It’s no small distinction.

In other words, will a vaccine stop asymptomatic spread? If it doesn't, then it's a LOT less helpful than currently touted, especially if its real world effectiveness rate in preventing actual sickness is around, say 70 percent. The answer is that it may not stop this. Infected animals given the virus were still "shedders."

As for that "70 percent"? As STAT points out, clinical trials generally recruit younger, healthier participants and for other reasons as well, have higher success rates than in the real world. So, again, pump your brakes.

• Related immunology science: How long will the protection last? Lots of shots in our standard armamentum, like tetanus, need a booster every 10 years, and they're not for rapidly evolving coronaviruses. My guesstimate? If we have another coronavirus-based pandemic, and it's more than 5 years from now, we'll need brand new vaccines.

• More, sad public health science: the winter surge is getting worse, especially in Midwestern states like mask-flouter Gov. Kristi Noem's South Dakota.

• Vaccine science, international: Turns out Russia's Sputnik vaccine (like Pfizer and Moderna, a two-stage jab) has more production problems than either of them. Namely, the second shot can't be stably made right now, which undercuts vaccination, period. China, of course, crickets. Easier than lying.

• And, coronavirus social science: COVID will also affect future retirement plans of people now at the tail end of the baby boom. That's from a dearth of underpaid home health aides who will be more choosy if another pandemic hits, to children of older retirees being more leery of nursing homes, and many other things. It will also cut the average lifespan of those today 65 and older, affect exercise health and many other things.

There's lots of things society can do to address this, but "can do" and "will do," in an America that remains, and likely will remain, hypercapitalist with Status Quo Joe as president for the next four years and a divided Congress? Two different things.

• Linguistics is a science, too, right? The Oxford English Dictionary doesn't have a single "word of the year" this year; rather, it's a suite of English language changes centered around the virus.

• Austin Mayer Steve Adler rightly deserves a butt-kicking for his trip to Cabo. That's a shorter one from the Trib; this is a longer one from Dan Solomon at the Monthly.

• As we wonder if and when before Christmas Congresscritters will pass a stimulus bill and how much big biz pork will be in it, Texans facing unemployment have a complex system, which the Trib tries to explain. Of course, many people aren't counted as unemployed, as, just like in previous recessions, they've given up trying to find jobs. This is why the U-6 rate is the "real" unemployment rate. Currently, it's still at near 12 percent.

Some more lies about Seth Rich from Clevenger?

Here's the link to the latest round of mixed vileness and mendacity from barratry-lawyer Ty Clevenger, legal beagle to the "stars" like Ed Butowsky, but, due to antidepressant withdrawal and lack of moral fiber, unable to keep himself and Ed from folding all their legal tents.

Per one of Jim Hoft's minions at Gateway Nutbar, and as of last night, NOWHERE other than there and other wingnut blogs (NOT "news sites") Clevenger claimed that "the attorney for the FBI" had said that they actually had Seth Rich's laptop.

See the update on the reality of the case below.

First? The FBI has one attorney? To me, that's what "the attorney" implies. No, Ty, it's represented by multo attorneys against you in all your fishing expeditions. (That was actually Gateway Nutbar's doing."

Second? NONE of the wingnut sites, in selections of the quoted email, give us a name for "the attorney." In other words, we can't look online for an actual name.

Third, per what Gateway Nutbar actually quotes?

FBI has completed the initial search identifying approximately 50 cross-reference serials, with attachments totaling over 20,000 pages, in which Seth Rich is mentioned. FBI has also located leads that indicate additional potential records that require further searching. . . . FBI is also currently working on getting the files from Seth Rich’s personal laptop into a format to be reviewed. As you can imagine, there are thousands of files of many types. The goal right now is to describe, generally, the types of files/personal information contained in this computer.

What the fuck gobbeldygook is that? (Boldface original in Gateway Pundit quote.)

And, it IS gobbledygook, probably of the deliberate gaslighting type.

Third, subpoint A: What, all these files aren't in a format already to be reviewed? They're not .eml or whatever Outlook's normal email extension is on a PC? They're not Word docs? Or JPGs? Or PNG screengrabs? 

Third, subpoint B, the biggest part of the gobbledygook? What the fuck is "cross-reference serials"? Is this the alleged "the attorney" trying to present himself, or someone he allegedly is speaking for at the FBI, as a forensic computer examination expert?

I would say this and more onsite at Gateway Nutbar, but it blocked me long ago.

That said, regular readers know that I have the good on Clevenger.

First, the degree to which he and Ed Butowsky folded their lawsuit tents within the last month (and Ty's lies about why) show his immediate past lack of credibility. (And yes, I'm already anticipating wingnuts saying the "Deep State" at the FBI admitted this only because these lawsuits were settled.)

Second, Ty lacked credibility long before this. I've written up a pretty complete list of the goods on his background here, YEARS ago.

Third, Seth Rich didn't leak anything. Per that and several other blog posts, the fact that RNC computers as well as DNC ones were hacked undercuts the Seth Rich leaker thing right there. Unfortunately, for a while, I listened too much to bullshit artists like Aaron Maté (you ARE, on this, Aaron, shut up!) who said "cloud computing" and "mirrors" etc. were no substitute for the real thing. Well, when you use cloud servers, Aaron, that IS the real thing. If you're that much of a gasligher, you too can go fuck yourself along with Clevenger. If you're that much of an idiot, again, shut up. Ditto for anybody else repeating that nonsense.

Fourth, per Stuart Blaugrund on Twitter, Michael Isikoff said 18 months ago that the FBI said it had Rich's laptop. So, nothing new, other than this possibly being Clevenger's small contribution to #StartTheSteal.

Fifth, via a link about Isikoff's story at that time?

But “Conspiracyland” quotes a source familiar with the network’s investigation saying that Fox executives grew frustrated they were unable to determine the identity of the other, and more important, source for the story: an anonymous “federal investigator” whose agency was never revealed. The Fox editors came to have doubts that the person was in fact who he claimed to be or whether the person actually existed, said the source.

Gee, sounds a lot like "an attorney," doesn't it? (My emphasis above.) And, now that I got Ty's site to load, it's even clearer that any reason we should believe him has evaporated.

Also refuting the claims it couldn't have been a botched robbery? The same story notes there had been seven armed robberies in that neighborhood in the six weeks before Rich's death.

I saw this posted, not by a wingnut, but by the owner of the MeWe group "Green Party Supporters." I was already thinking of leaving the group due to the number of Trump Trainers that had joined in the last two weeks. (It has no screening questions, and no post moderation. I'm not sure if MeWe allows either one; if it doesn't, for all its self-braggadocio, that's a big fail vs Fuckbook.)

Since then, she has responded "bullshit" to me, apparently deleted the post, and definitely is no longer owner of the group and apparently no longer even in it. Good. I wonder if the infiltration was connected to this.

As for facts on the ground here? Green types who believe this are, per Counterpunch owner Jeff St. Clair, "the more credulous precincts of the left." (Sadly, St. Clair, along with managing editor Joshua Frank, have crappy editorial control in general over free[lance] submissions that they publish, as he's let his own site fuel this bullshit.)

As for Clevenger, as I asked on Twitter, is this "just" a #StartTheSteal contribution to Trump, or are you a paid agent of the SVR? He makes no new claims, is apparently making up a person and a person's name, mentions Butowsky without mentioning all the lawsuits the pair of them have folded on (this is his first post in four months) and otherwise ignores reality.

There is a related question or two. Does Clevenger believe all the fanbois haven't read about his having to fold his tents legally? And, is this actually a justified true belief, perhaps?

==

Update: Here's the actual legal matter at hand, per Stuart Blaugrund.

The FBI is asking for a three-month delay in meeting Brian Huddleston's FOIA request, filed earlier this year.

Second, despite Clevenger's cloak-and-dagger skullduggery? The FBI's attorney of record is Andrea Hedrick Parker. That's "the attorney."

Third, Ty is so loony he thinks Fox itself is part of the conspiracy:

And why is Fox News working so hard to kill this story? I wish I could say more about Fox’s behind-the-scenes treachery — and someday hopefully I will — but rest assured that Malia Zimmerman’s May 17, 2017 story about Mr. Rich was fully vetted by senior Fox management. I repeatedly encouraged Fox’s attorneys to postpone settlement discussions with Seth Rich’s parents until I obtained the FBI records (my client, Ed Butowsky, was a co-defendant with Fox), but Fox was hellbent on settling the case in October / November. That’s around the time Rupert Murdoch publicly joined forces with Joe Biden.

That's our boy. WORSE than Joey Dauben with a law degree by now. 

(Note: This would also seem to confirm my initial impression, namely, that this was Ty's contribution to #StartTheSteal.)

Fourth? The actual case? Seems to be little more than a conspiracy theory fishing expedition. I quote from the original pleading:

Yeah, right.

All data, documents, records or communications (including texts or emails) that reflect any meetings or communications from July 10, 2016 until July 10, 2017 between former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and any and all of the following: (1) Seymour Myron "Sy" Hersh (born on or about April 8, 1937); (2) Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser; and/or (3) former Democratic National Committee Interim Chairwoman Donna Brazile.

I've already looked at Sy Hersh's involvement, along with him burning Butowsky after finding out Ed taped him. The rest of it? Looney tunes. Have no clue why DC's mayor is in there. The link is from an excellent piece by The Nation. And, yes, Caitlin Johnstone IS a nutter, but she's right that Hersh still owes us an explainer for passing on unverified shite that he'd never seen himself — and not saying it was such to Butowsky. IF Sy was trying to wheedle something out of Butowsky, it seems naive of him not to have expected Ed to have been recording him.

Dec. 17: We have another non-anonymous person from the FBI, Michael Seidel, records division section chief, explaining how FOIA work cannot generally be done remotely and that it therefore has indeed been hampered by COVID. Ty and Huddleston have likely known this all along. It's kind of like Aaron Maté and some of the other increasingly duplicitious outside the box stenos talking about Crowdstrike's failure to turn over computers when they KNEW all along that much of the information in question was cloud-based.

Greg Abbott: Bullet-train bimbo with a party of hypocrites

I argued directly with Brains, long ago, and indirectly with Kuff more recently, about the virtues vs. the vices of the Texas Central Railroad. This piece from about 15 months ago is the latest on that.

That's until now, with the help of a new Texas Monthly piece about Gov. Strangebbott pulling yet another of his Jesuitical flip-flops, this on the train. He first wrote a letter in support of it, to make sure the Japanese government still had a yen for it, then, allegably spurred by some of his staff, who wrote the Snooze to say he was agin it, he's .... agin it!

First of all, there's some bad framing in the middle of the piece, as I told Morgan O'Hanlon. It's not all wingnuts or gummint officials who oppose it. Per my link, Schutze has long looked at the Dallas station terminus as a focus of grift. From my part, having lived in Navasota, I'm smelled the hog crap of a station in Roans Prairie ever since the line was first announced. The claims that this was to try to serve both College Station and Huntsville are itself bullshit, as I said in a previous piece which also noted the whole fricking line was wrong for following I-45 instead of Texas 6. "Bullet" stops are at College Station and Waco where you hit 35 and that's that. Maybe on a non-express, you drop a stop at Hillsboro, and one at Katy. I discuss stop-gaps (no pun intended!) on a bullet train route, based on French trains, in this old post.

And, as I predicted there? Just like in California (there's Texas wingnuts being hoist by their own petard), the price is going up WAY over the original. Cost estimates have doubled. Oh, no, I'm sorry, they've TRIPLED. And, no, contra that piece, work won't start in the first half of 2021. It's not just that the Lege may monkey-wrench it further. They still don't have all their federal permits. And COVID will still be an issue on supply chain. And, will the Japanese government money remain firm in the face of all of the above?

In any case, no, it's not starting before fall 2021 at the earliest.

That said, back to the Monthly's piece? It IS "fun" to watch the wingnuts not in the gov's mansion blather about "Green New Deal." I think they forgot "Agenda 21" and "the bullet train will take over our golf courses."

And, back to that Snooze piece. "Incomplete information"? The train's been on the drawing board for almost a full decade now, right? Lying sacks of shit.

The only "incomplete information" Abbott had was the degree of vociferousness of opposition that could contribute to him being primaried in 2022. In August, I saw that as more unlikely than yes, offering 2-1 odds against. Now? Especially if Shelley Luther tops Drew Springer? I'd cut those odds to 3-2. Still 3-2 against, but narrowing.

That said, Abbott's staffers aren't the only liars here. TCR's foreign partners claiming the coronavirus was "the" cause of 28 layoffs in March? Maybe A cause, but THE cause? No.

Finally, there's Texas Central Railroad being hypocrites. 

Remember they originally said that this would all be private money? Guess that only applied to inside the US of A. Foreign gummint money spends just fine in their quicksilver fingers, apparently.

Texas Progressives glad that DACA is back (on paper)

As Trump continues to lose election challenge suits, there's still a special election for the Texas Lege, Biden Cabinet nominees and infighting over them.

There's other things on the plate for this week, so let's dig in, and we shall do so.

Texas

The Observer eyeballs the high cost of traditional death in Texas, Texas' role in spreading this nationwide (the Dignity et al chain of semi-monopolistic funeral homes started here) and what some are doing to fight back.

Off the Kuff has wrapped up his look at recent Presidential results with analyses of East, Central, and West Texas.

"Let's go aggressively centric." Yep, Texas Dems, that's the idea of your Hollywood heartthrob that you have hard-on for as your 2022 guv candidate. More on Matt McConaghey's appearance on Russell Brand here.

Dr. Peter Hotez says "goodbye and good riddance" to Scott Atlas.  

Sanford Nowlin previews the legislative budget battle.  

The Bloggess presents Year Eleven of the James Garfield Miracle.  

Jessica Montoya Coggins worries about the next phase of anti-abortion legislation in Texas.

North Texas

Tarrant County went blue, just slightly, which started the mouthbreathers in the local GOP off with localized fake news claims about voting fraud. It's the first time since LBJ that that's happened, which explains the butt-hurt.

Shelley Luther is playing up the antimasking angle in her SD30 runoff against Drew Springer, but as COVID numbers soar, will that dog hunt?

Nancy Rodriguez will be bad for Dallas ISD. Schutze explains.

Is downtown Dallas walkable? Zac Crain says actually, yes, sort of. The Observer writes about his effort.

National

Ken Paxton, on state trial for corruption and under FBI investigation for more corruption, is of course the perfect poster child for vote theft #StartTheSteal corruption by suing other states.

Joe Biden, more than Status Quo Joe, is New Jim Crow Joe, Counterpunch details.

He's also the New Warmonger Joe, giving us a career military man, retired Gen. Lloyd Austin, instead of warmongering neoliberal-con Michele Flournoy, as Secretary of Defense.

SocraticGadfly, noting Biden's fall-offs vs. Hillary Clinton, and of course vs. Obama, looks at minority voters vs the Democratic reservation, and about minorities looking beyond the two-party box. 

A federal judge ruled that some teens should be allowed to apply for DACA again.

Friendly reminder that Trump was mostly talk, little action on ending "forever wars," contra Maté, Blumenthal and other not always useful idiots. Friendly additional reminder that his mindset, frozen in amber from 50 years ago, includes being frozen in amber on wanting to fight Cold War wars.

It's fun watching the Biden Hispanic Cabinet calf scramble!

A non-addictive cigarette? And you'll enforce that how?

I'm more and more convinced that Annie Lowrey is Atlantic's designated Peter Principle writer. The latest proof for that conjecture? Her urging Biden to adopt a policy crafted, but never implemented, by Trump: Nicotine-free cigs. First, as with decaf coffee, the degree they'd actually be nicotine-free would be questionable. Second, I would see a HUGE black market for regular cigs. Prohibition on steroids, and the size of cigs makes them easy to smuggle. You've presumably heard of a "cigarette boat," Ms. Lowery? It's why Marlboros were "currency" behind the Iron Curtain. Third, can you say vaping? Unless Lowery wants the gummint to force that to have only nicotine-free juices. If so, can you say "first" and "second" above? 

Related? First, what's a "non-addictive" level of nicotine? Big Tobacco's gonna fight your definition. 

More related? It's not just that nicotine itself is hyper-addictive, contra Lowrey. It's that Big Tobacco treats cigs with a variety of chemicals. Gonna have Biden make that stop?

Rather than shooting for a "nicotine-free" cigarette, or even more, an "addiction free" level of nicotine and arguing about what that is, I say put a max nicotine cap on it, and also abolish all the other chemicals.

The biggest deal is that this is a neoliberal "supply-side" solution.

It does not one whit to address why people smoke. And, it's for more reasons than just companies getting them hooked.

As for the biggest thing Biden could do to help public health? It would be to get us national health care.