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Kevin Durant: Will he help Warriors
take the title back from the Cavaliers? |
It's time for another season of the
National Basketball Association to start.
We're guaranteed — or almost so — a threepeat of Golden State-Cleveland Finals showdowns, right?
So?
Is there something wrong with that?
Obviously, the biggest offseason news was
surely
Kevin Durant using free agency to bolt the Oklahoma City
Thunder and go to the Golden State Warriors, winners of the 2015
title and Finals losers to
LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers
this summer.
Of course, the move brought out a
variety of naysayers.
These were usually of two types.
One was deploring the rise of
“superteams.”
Well, we had superteams in the past.
Lakers-Celtics in the 1980s. The Bulls, period, in the 1990s. Lakers
again at the start of the previous decade. Then the Miami Heat when
LeBron made The Decision to leave Cleveland for South Beach
before coming back home.
Yes, any team with LeBron seems like a
superteam, and he's been to the Finals six years in a row. But, he's
lost three of those. So, success is not guaranteed, although there's
often a good chance of at least near-success. That said, per
my post about this year's World Series, it's more bullshit than truth that America loves an underdog.
At the same time, especially with
Lakers-Celtics, fans often love rivalries. That's true, at least to
some degree, even if their team isn't one of the two in the series.
So, I don't loathe the idea of
superteams myself. Besides, superteams can be built through drafting,
scouting and trading just as much as free agency. Look at the San
Antonio Spurs.
The second objection is that a team
with that much talent will never find the way to mesh, will never
find the way to be unselfish and so will be less than the sum of its
parts.
Well, “your mileage may vary,” or
“past performance does not guarantee the future,” but in the
preseason, the Warriors seemed to have very little problem meshing.
When they briefly had this year's version of their “Lineup of
Death” on court, they played at an efficiency, skill and
productivity level that will break all NBA records if they carry it
out during the regular season. Add in that this additional depth in
the starting lineup will let them give their starters more rest in
games during the season, especially on nights when they play
back-to-back games.
The one potential liability is that Durant has never been known as a great defensive player, and,
as LeBron and his Cavaliers showed in rallying to win it all last
year, playoff defense is a big deal. Durant's not horrible, but he's
not good. And, with
Andrew Bogut departing the Dubs for Dallas, the
Warriors have no interior shot-blockers.
But, it will still, barring major
injury to LeBron, or to one or more Warriors, be a threepeat of the
Finals foes. And, the Cavs won last year with several players,
including
Kyrie Irving and
Kevin Love, playing less than stellar D
themselves. And, while
Klay Thompson and
Andre Iguodala lock down, Iggy's getting older.
Steph Curry isn't known for his D, and
Draymond Green is hit and miss to a degree greater than his potential eikon (sic),
Dennis Rodman.
Elsewhere? A few basic prognostications
here.
Speaking of Bogut, and the
Mavericks, I predict they miss the playoffs this year. Whether Mark
Cuban and his front office can do a real rebuild of the team remains
to be seen. Frankly, I'm betting against Cuban for a few years. I
suspect that, after 2017, the post-
Dirk Nowitzki era could be a dry
time indeed.
I predict the Lakers will be as bad as
last year — just a different bad without
Kobe Bryant jacking up 40
shots a game.
In the West, I also expect Utah and
Minnesota to both make the playoffs ahead of the Mavs. In the East, I
don't see any serious challengers to Cleveland. But, I do expect
Joel Embiid to be for real, and to help the Sixers move from 10 to at least 15 wins. In the West, the San
Antonio Spurs will give the Warriors another run, while the L.A.
Clippers will probably threaten to do that before becoming
dysfunctional again.
Blake Griffin will probably have some part in that dysfunction. In Alamo City, speaking of the Spurs,
Kawhi Leonard may step into team leadership. Will
Tony Parker step aside? Will
Lamarcus Aldridge follow him, or per rumors, will he go on the trading block?
Yes, they looked very good in the opener against the Warriors, but I'll stand by the Dubs to win the West.
Anyway, beyond defense, what both the
Cavaliers (and any LeBron team before that) and the Warriors have
shown in the last two years is that teamwork is key in the NBA. The
Spurs show it before that. Make the extra pass on offense. Make the
extra rotation on defense. Communicate.
Buckle up for another great year!