SocraticGadfly: 9/29/19 - 10/6/19

October 04, 2019

Friday Night Lights was Friday Night Bugs

A weak cool front that didn't do half of what weathercritters had predicted in advance left North Texas semi-muggy and plenty of weather unsettled as late summer still refused to give way to fall for this week's Friday Night Lights?

Result?

Massive amounts of moths swarming stadium lights, and even more big black crickets on the ground, on people's backs, in people's hair and under people's shirts.

Yours truly was covering Era vs. Tom Bean.

Halftime fun had more entertainment from a kid about 4 years old, a young girl, trying to kill crickets with pom-poms than anything on the field. (Note to Tom Bean's band: No, you're not worth 7 minutes plus of airtime at an away game. Band teacher, train your drum majors to do a shorter program. Seriously. I'm not a sports editor geek guy; this is just common courtesy.

Era itself is an interesting place.

A few years ago, whether via a bond or cash in pocket, the school district sprang to replace grass on baseball and softball fields with turf.

Football field? Still grass.

The mouthpiece at left attests to that. Was it bug-free? Given the amount of crickets on the field, not for much longer than when I took this photo, I'm sure.

And, in an even bigger oddity in general in 2019, still no play clock behind the two end zones.

Anyway, the game was a small-school run-heavy event. Even with the time greed by Tom Bean's band, game was over before 9:45.

Small-school football also means small-school reffing.

I don't expect these refs to be close to perfect, unlike the first-year coach of S and S, who fancies himself a junior Mike Leach.

I do expect them to be reasonably OK, at least.

How this tackle at right wasn't flagged as a horsecollar, when UIL has had them verboten for several years and toughened its rules two years ago, I have no idea. But, it wasn't.

Anyway, it's before midnight, I've got photos edited, and we're off to another week.

And the weathercritters are saying the high for next Friday's tilts will only be in the 80s, err, 60s! We'll see. And, no, I do NOT need it to hit a flat 40 next Friday night.

Cards win Game 1, almost yakk it away
on bad baserunning

I loved seeing Marcell Ozuna drive home the tie-breaking runs with his two-run double in the top of the ninth yesterday, and I loved even more Kolten Wong getting some fielding redemption with his own follow-up two-run double.

BUT?

It should have been a three-run, bases-clearing double, but wasn't due to questionable baserunning management.

Remember that there two outs when Wong hit his double. Carlos Martinez was the next batter, and remember that manager Mike Shildt decided to let him bat.

Assuming that decision had already been made at the time Wong came up, it's incumbent on Shildt to let third base coach Ron Warner know that, especially as this is new coaching territory for Warner.

You HAVE TO send Yadier Molina home from first on Wong's double, IMO. That ball bounced around a lot in the right field foul territory and he had a good chance to score, and you can't depend on your pitcher picking him up with two outs. That also meant that the play was fully in front of Warner and unless he thinks Yadi is totally dead to rights coming home, you send him. Given that Shildt was third-base coach two years ago, he should know this himself. (If he doesn't, that itself is disconcerting.)

Sure, the Cardinals had a four-run lead when Ozuna crossed the plate.

But, remember that Martinez coughed back three of those runs and looked VERY shaky in the bottom the ninth, especially when Freddie Freeman took him halfway to the moon.

Given the plethora of bad baserunning player decisions (looking at you, Matt Carpenter, among others) and bad baserunning management and coaching in the Mike Matheny era, I still cringe when I see these things.

And, if Yadi HAD been thrown out, and Martinez not batted, had he needed to be pulled, that gives you a double-substitution possibility, to boot.

Kumbaya is not a solution to Western water rights

That's even though John Fleck claims it is.

Fleck, a former Albuquerque Journal reporter, is now an adjunct professor at UNM and director of its water resources program. He is right that collaborative water governance is needed in the Colorado basin and elsewhere in the Southwest, but his blog (with a sometimes co-author, Eric Kuhn) tends to go overboard. He claims that most past reporting on the issue has been unduly alarmist and achieved little. He's half right on that.

A lot of it has been alarmist. Unduly? Maybe, maybe not. As for whether the alarmism helped prod collaboration under fear, maybe it didn't but maybe it did.

He's wrong that past history of water issues indicate that "Kumbaya" type interactions have been how all this collaborative governance has been achieved. Often, collaborative government has only resulted after legal threats. I don't consider a mailed fist in the background, even if not actually used, to be "Kumbaya." (And, that's setting aside the times that collaboration between different water governance entities only happened AFTER the mailed fist hit something.) And unlike alarmist headlines (or even books: Fleck semi-sneers about Marc Reisner's renowned "Cadillac Desert"), where benefit or lack thereof is near-impossible to determine, lawsuits, or even the threat of them, causing change can be clearly measured.

And, yes, IMO, sneered is the right word on "Cadillac Desert." Look for yourself.

Another red flag of sorts, that I noted as I wrapped this up? Fleck's UNM position is in its department of economics, not Geography and Environmental Science, which probably says something right there.

With that in mind, I eventually decided to read his 2016 book. What's below is an adapted Goodreads review.

Water is for Fighting Over: and Other Myths about Water in the WestWater is for Fighting Over: and Other Myths about Water in the West by John Fleck
My rating: 1 of 5 stars

Intellectually dishonest, in my opinion.

He, or his friends, know the numbers stuff. But, he's Preznit Kumbaya on his framing.

So, knowing Fleck had written this book, and that he had a new one coming out, I wanted to see what he was like in more than blogging depth.

Answer?

Worse than on the blog.

Let’s start with the most egregious issue. A 2016 book about Colorado River water issues doesn’t even use the words “climate change” until page 199? UNACCEPTABLE.

Second, and the point behind the header?

Much of the “Kumbaya” that Fleck mentions was only achieved with the threat of a legal mailed fist behind it. Kumbaya by force of law is hardly Kumbaya.

Other issues that pop up early on?

More dissing of Reisner. After initial mention, simply ignoring James Powell, author of “Dead Pool.” I have re-read “Cadillac Desert” have a dozen times and “Dead Pool” twice. Both are in my small “keepers” library.

Next? More Kumbaya, even as places like today’s Aral Sea basin, Jordan River, Tigris-Euphrates and Nile show that Kumbaya ain’t working so well as we speak.

We don't even need to go outside the Colorado Basin! The fate of the Hohokam should indicate that Kumbaya doesn't always win.

Next next? Ignoring that Colorado River water usage has been mitigated by ever-heavier drawdowns of groundwater, both in groundwater basins connected to the Colorado (Arizona) and in those not (California), though there it’s more to reduce Sacramento-San Joaquin water u se in the Central Valley.

Next next next? Ignoring the connection between groundwater basins and river recharge. Anybody who knows the godawful state of southern Arizona tributaries of the Gila also knows why.

And, we’ll keep going. In supporting growing alfalfa as a flexible crop, he ignores that the methane farts of the cows it feeds contribute to the climate change that is making the Colorado ever drier. But, since he doesn't mention climate change until the end of the book ...

A lot of the Kumbaya cooperation Fleck cites, like in SoCal, has the fist of threatened legal power behind it, in specific, just as has most Colorado River stuff. Doesn’t matter if the threat is rarely invoked; it exists. That’s “forced Kumbaya,” not Kumbaya.

Also, it comes off as a bit cherry-picking to discuss a couple of small Southland water districts and never discuss the massive water headaches in the Central Valley, which were a large part of Reisner’s book.

One other reviewer notes water fights in the Central Valley (speaking of) are even worse than in the Colorado, and large scale corporate farms have no problems putting their thumb on the scales.

Back inside the Colorado basin, and after the date of this book, Arizona’s state Speaker of the House Bowers nearly gutted a needed agreement for new water use reductions earlier this year with a proposed rider on the bill. Only the threat of the Maricopa affiliation of Indian tribes forced his hand. Fleck made light of it.

Speaking of that, that water agreement was required because of Lake Mead hitting 1.075 elevation. Fleck, near the end of the book, notes that a previous agreement didn’t directly address 1,075, but appears to believe there that this point wouldn’t hit until after 2020.

Well, Fleck, it hit before then, and it hit before then in spite of a record Rockies snowpack in 2019. Did you talk about climate change in your new book?

One other point vis-à-vis the Anglo water world in the Southwest in general, American Indian water rights are the 800-pound gorilla in the room. Fleck does eventually discuss them – for half a dozen pages or so in the last 10 percent of the book. But he doesn’t go into detail.

Next, he never considers whether a “moon shoot” shouldn’t overhaul the current Upper / Lower Basin divisions. (I say it should; I’d put the Virgin River in the lower basin and the Little Colorado in the upper.) Related to that, on his blog, Fleck appears wedded to giving the Upper Basin just as much water despite its lesser population and its agricultural challenges.

Something almost as inexcusable as not mentioning climate change until the end of the book? Talking early on about the Mormons and the amount of water management ideas they spread around the West while ignoring that they got much of that, in turn, by learning from the majordomos who ran (and still run, in many cases) acequias in New Mexico. It’s doubly inexcusable not to mention this since Fleck is a long term reporter at the Albuquerque Journal.

That’s even though he mentions it in his blog. While, at the same time, it's a throwaway line.

Look, some "gloom and doom" newspaper reporting and books over the state of the Colorado may have been too much. BUT, they were reasonable extrapolations from the status quo at the time they were written. Killing a perhaps sometimes overdone angle the way Fleck has done is proverbial gnat meeting sledgehammer.

Of course, a sledgehammer can't be swung quickly and accurately enough to actually kill a gnat.

Finally, beyond the thumb-on-scales slant, I just don't think the book is that well written. The throwaway nature of the Mormon comment would be one example.


View all my reviews

And, it's not just the book.

Here's a post from late September about how much Albuquerque has cut its water use.

My thoughts back?

Of course, not all of this is due to Kumbaya let's all be nice.

Any water reduction agreement with the threat of a legal mailed fist behind it is NOT Kumbaya.

And, it's not just from other Anglos or whatever. Fleck's own former paper noted how the state is fighting Navajos winning new San Juan water rights. That's even though it says it agrees with the result.

And, less non-Navajo water right on the San Juan means less water to divert to the Chama.

Various pueblos had water rights confirmed in 2017. Again, mailed legal fist, or threat of it, to established municipal users. 

There's also the issue of water purity. I'm sure that Fleck knows Isleta won a ruling on that 20 years ago. It's indirectly related to water rights, though the main issue was about treating water for quality. Non-Puebloans using less water means that water that remains, or treated water that is better treated when returned to the river, will more easily meet the requirements.

Also, the carrot of tax credits for low-flow showerheads, low-flush toilets, etc. and the stick of higher water rates have been part of the mix. The carrot could be called Kumbaya; the stick not so much.

High Country News has done a number of stories on Indian water rights. Here's one from a year ago. An important takeaway from that is that it often takes decades for the rubber of a new Indian water rights legal confirmation to hit the road of reality on how that affects other water users.

No wonder Ted Nordhaus' Breakthrough Institute has a page on him. And, you know, if you look at Breakthrough's board, tech-libertarians and their likes abound.

Yeah, Reisner is dated. That said, despite one commenter on Fleck's page, he's NOT that dated; the revised edition is 25 years old, not 40. And Powell, who DOES mention climate change, is only half a decade old and not out of date at all. Worster's not out of date either. And, he's spot on about noting issues of class and water rights, which play out especially on American Indian issues but also somewhat elsewhere.

And, instead of reading this book, or Fleck's new one, read Powell. Or the new "Downriver" from Heather Hansman. Or, beyond the narrow issue of water, Christopher Ketchum's new "This Land." Just don't bother reading John Fleck.

October 03, 2019

No twosiderism on Trump-Ukraine, please, OTB stenos!

That's even as Glenn Greenwald seems to be joining the Aaron Matés and other alleged outside the box journos in doing just that, based on recent Tweets by Glenn.

Greenwald, like them, has a history of framing every attack on Trump's foreign policy as "the Resistance."

Aided by his own colleague, James Risen, though, on Glenn's own pages, this isn't so true.

The reality is that we have:
1. Some degree of corruption by Hunter Biden;
2. A background of the US supporting a semi-coup at the Maidan;
3. Topped by usual Trump grifting, in this case, tightening a money spigot, which Ukraine's now president probably knew about at the time, though this is undercertain;
3A. Contra Maté, the issue ultimately NOT depending on whether he knew or not, just Trump acting as though he knew. (At least Aaron used the "might" qualifier in his header, or maybe somebody at the Nation insisted on it.) As it turns out, as the WSJ reports in much detail (another non-Resistance outlet, Aaron) the reason Trump didn't get Ukraine's new president Zelensky to know he was being extorted is a usual-type clusterfuck Trump Team breakdown in communications.
4. As for the whistleblower approaching a Schiff staffer, contra both Aaron and fellow traveler Megyn Kelly, that says nothing about this being "The Resistance" organizing this. Rather, the whistleblower may simply have seen Schiff's name, knows that Democrats control the House, and thought to approach a staffer.
5. Although no quid pro quo was suggested, Trump apparently trying to get Chinese President Xi Jinping to investigate Hunter Biden? Well, Aaron, that means this isn't all about Russia, Russia-Ukraine, or a new version of the Cold War. And, although Trump didn't talk about a specific quid-pro-quo on the tariff war, his mentioning of tariffs leaves that open.
6. To riff on Risen? The bottom line is that two wrongs don't make a right.

Sooo .... ??

My "please" is too late.

These folks come off looking as bad as the MSM journos they like to deplore. And, like them, it's not that they're not capable of better (with an asterisk) but that they WON'T do better. The asterisk is that they're so psychologically constrained that the could do better will take work.

If I write more, it may be time for an acronym to parallel. Better yet, an acronym plus a parallel word: OTB stenos.

===

Update, Nov. 8: Aaron got kicked on his former news site, The Real News over his twosider-stanning. (Watch out, world, "stanning" is going to get attached to more!) Matt also got a bit of kicking. Ryan Cooper and William Rivers Pitt are pretty insightful themselves. So, contra this DSA Rose who's still part of the duopoly, and where I saw the link:
I'll take them first.

That link deserves a good read. Among other things, the Aaron-"bashers" note that motive doesn't matter on Vindman and others. It's simply whether Vindman, the anonymous whistleblower and others are telling the truth.

And, beyond the issue of motive? I'm not defending Hunter Biden. And, contra John Halle, I'm not a Democrat of any sort, so I'm not part of ANY duopoly when possible on national level elections. But ... there's an old cliché that's more than a faded cliché:

Two wrongs don't make a right.

That's part of where the steno-stanners are at.

Top blogging for September

Calling out the Dallas Observer for running a hit job piece about a wind farm was No. 1.

Decrying John Brockman's work in promoting the science connected "influencer" work of Jeffrey Epstein was No. 2.

Both those led well ahead of others.

Noting that former San Francisco 49er Colin Kaepernick was NOT going to the Pittsburgh Steelers after Ben Roethlisberger went down with an elbow injury, and also was NOT going to the New Orleans Saints as a short-term replacement for Drew Brees, was No. 3.

A blast from the past, from MANY years past, was in No 4. "Show me the Trig Palin birth certificate" gained new life when Sarah and Todd appeared to be divorcing, per legal filing, at Wasilla, Bum Fuck Egypt borough, Alaska.

The updated baggage of Royce West was No. 5.

Who are the neoliberal NGOs and minders behind Greta Thunberg was No. 6.

Calling out Liza Featherstone for giving Bernie Sanders a family values pass was No. 7.

Ranking Democratic presidential candidates by cult level was No. 8.

Pointing out that American Indians, whether pre-Columbian or post-Columbian, aren't always environmentalists was No. 9.

Top blogging from August, to go meta, was No. 10.

October 02, 2019

Where will you find black Republicans?

Not a joke but it does sound like a set-up for a great punchline.

First, they do exist, as past and present members of Comgress attest. But, contra Allen West, Tim Scott, Will Hurd and J.C. Watts, they neither live in the part of the country, the South, nor have all the right background, to make them the most likely of black Republicans.

By part of the country, the area of country around the Utah of former Congresscritter Mia Love is where you should look, according to political scientist and data scientist Allen Downey.

But, Love doesn't fully fit the bill either, unless you consider Mormons to be born-again Protestants. (That said, she is a convert to Mormonism.)

Otherwise, as far as her overall background, as someone arguably less wingnut-lite even than Hurd, if the GOP wants to have a future with African-Americans, it will have to be with people like her.

But, until the worst of the TrumpTrain virus is purged from the GOP, it will be hard to recruit people like her.

Back to that link?

Besides out west, making money, NOT graduating college, and born again? That's a weird combo. Born-again Protestantism is not strong in the west, which is in general the least religious part of the country. It's also, outside the actual coastal cities of the West Coast, the least black portion of the country. That said, given the past history of Mormonism, it was weird of Mia Love to convert.

Per my review of a recent book, "Blessed," though, it's not weird overall to see non-college grads, born-again Christians, and more than $100K a year as prime demographics. Modern black megachurches promote this entrepreneurialism as part of the success gospel. That then said, to tie back to Love, Mormonism has its own versions of the success gospel, as noted in my review.

Texas Progressives look at Texodus and more

This corner of the Texas Progressives world reminds readers that nothing is settled on the Trump-Ukraine issue, that Hunter Biden does have his own sleaze factor, and that he surely didn't fall any further as an acorn from the familial oak tree than Ivanka, Don Jr. or Eric Trump.

That said, this corner of the world also reminds you that there's real smoke there, and that there's no need for some alleged outside the box journalists to treat this with an unhealthy does of twosiderism, as several are doing.

With that, let's dive in.


Big picture — thought motivations

SocraticGadfly dips into academia and says that conspiracy thinking is a new form of Gnosticism, an ancient religious movement that crossed Jewish, early Christian and pagan boundaries. He suggests keeping that in mind with many of the things social media bombards us with.


Dallas

The Amber Guyger case has wrapped with her being convicted of murder. My thoughts here, along with broader thoughts on justice in the case and issues of what justice is, or is not. essentially wrapped Friday with her own tearful testimony after the presiding judge refused to allow defense experts to make state of mind statements about what she might have been thinking when she shot Botham Jean. What DID become admissible was her affair with her fellow patrol officer, which might itself influence the jury. Surprisingly, Jim Schutze did not pen Part 5 of his Amber Guyger bromance. The judge in the case allowed defense to lean on the castle doctrine while allowing jurors to consider manslaughter as well as murder.

A new African-American art exhibit hits Fair Park for the State Fair.

The largest U.S. strike in a dozen years continues against GM, including its Arlington plant in the heart of anti-union Texas, documented in detail at that link. That's even as hopes for a quick settlement fade more and more, with GM looking to institutionalize temp workers, sell more plants — many into GM-run combined ventures — and otherwise swing a mean chainsaw.


Houston

Jeff Balke proposes five rules for employers for the next time it floods.

John Coby reports from a protest outside State Rep. Briscoe "Little Baby" Cain's office.

Grits notes multiple mental health and other red flags related to gun ownership, in the case of the man suspected in shooting a Harris County deputy.


Texas politics

Off the Kuff discussed the motives behind multiple counties' plans to raise property tax rates.

NBC writes a half-assed story about HB 2504, not mentioning the onerous filing fee requirements, about which I have blogged, including the lawsuit. Kuff pats himself and other content Dems on the back over the piece.

Gov. Greg Abbott is (perhaps by design) making an underfunded, understaffed, quasi-Deep State within the Department of Public Safety a key element in his gun semi-control efforts. At least DPS head Steve McCraw (with free time from chasing down Snoop Dogg loving troopers) admitted that the racist "replacement" theory is driving a lot of domestic terrorism.

The Snooze's Todd Gilman notes the suburbs and inner exurbs shifting Democrat, and focuses on Montgomery and Denton counties.

Mac Thornberry, despite being from the reddest of red districts, is the latest GOP Congresscritter to join the #Texodus. My take is here.

The DCCC is bringing out the battleships to run flak for embattled, primaried ConservaDem Henry Cisneros.


Texana

In a blistering column, Chris Tomlinson notes that Texas' poverty rate is worse than in Louisiana or New Mexico.

The Observer profiles anti-LGBTQ bigot Tracy Shannon.

A state district judge apologizes for telling the truth about Greg Abbott and trees.

A group of photojournalists is suing the state over its law on drone photography on First Amendment grounds. I'd say they have a case, and are you shocked that Texas Legiscritters and Gov. Strangeabbott have once again been demonstrated to have only passing familiarity with the First Amendment?


National

In his weekly 2020 Roundup, Brains finally throws in the towel on Tulsi, with her single-payer schwaffle being the last straw. He can't resist trying to throw shade at me. Oh well. His problem. He does link to interviews with Green candidate Ian Schlackman, one of three who is in my "preferred" circle.

Nearly a month after a federal appeals court revived the lawsuit of Seth Rich's parents against his clients, wingnut ex-Texas lawyer Ty Clevenger had yet to say anything about that on his blog.

Juanita has read the transcript of Donald Trump's call to Ukraine. And probably gossiped that this meant "we" should write in Hillary, or at least that Liz Warren should call her.

The TSTA Blog reminds us that the voters will have the last word on Trump's fate.

Sanford Nowlin examines the effects of impeachment on San Antonio-area Congressional races.

Paradise in Hell once again channels Donald Trump.

October 01, 2019

Amber Guyger guilty: quick, and further, thoughts

First, I'm surprised the jury voted a murder conviction after the judge said castle doctrine should be taken into account AND allowed manslaughter as an alternative charge for conviction (even though legal experts said that, given Guyger admitting she fired willfully, manslaughter shouldn't be allowed).

First, we need to go where Dallas Observer columnist Jim Schutze refused to go in his Amber Guyger white-knight trial bromance about how she couldn't get a fair trial in Dallas and many, many other things.


As The Root and others have reported, and as her brother-in-law's OK sign and her mom's "All Lives Matter" T-shirt show, Guyger at a minimum left herself open to charges of racism. And, AFAIK, Schutze never discussed that. ADL has dismissed the OK sign as not being that version of OK. However, there are other Hispanics, Mr. Garza, who dislike blacks. There are American Indians who dislike blacks. Look at ... George Zimmerman. Being Hispanic is no defense against racism.

That said, a new story at Schutze's own employer shows that texts (not to her patrol partner lover, but others), along with post-hiring social media posts, show that yes, Amber Guyger appears to have several racist bones in her body. But Schutze, now that he can't carry on his bromance about Guyger getting a fair trial, asks "why is it always about race?" Dude? Are you like New York Times or Wall Street Journal columnists who never read the news stories in their own papers either?

Add in a sprinkling of posturing by Schutze, two or three sprinkles of holystoning and holier-than-thou-ing from Jim, and the column is complete.

Grits for Breakfast has some good in-depth thoughts, starting with the racism issue. Actually, that's No. 2, after abuse of authority by Dallas police union prez Mike Mata, whom many people rightfully want to resign.

No. 3, after the social media racism? De-escalation training for cops only works if they want to use it. And, going beyond Grits, on the issue, is there no stick of citations for cops who don't use it? Probably not.

No. 4 for Grits is why Guyger and patrol partner Martin Rivera weren't cited for evidence tampering for deleting texts. (More on this below.) That would be her Hispanic patrol partner with whom she was carrying on an affair, to the point of texting the night she shot, well, no, murdered, Botham Jean. But Guyger's b-i-l being Hispanic, as well as herself having a Hispanic lover? Nope, that's no proof against racism. See above.

Her attorneys said that prosecutors were trying to make her look bad. No, they were trying to show her making herself look bad by looking callous.

Per NPR's story about her sentencing, other social media posts made her look trigger-happy, which was part of the prosecution's case.

Her defense team added to the problem if it coached her to say that she wished she were dead and he were still alive. To me, it came off as over the top. WAY over the top.

Speaking of the sentencing?

Contra Grits, Judge Tammy Kemp hugging Amber Guyger was NOT the worst thing she did, in my opinion. Instead, right before that moment, it was this:
After that emotional denouement (of Brandt Jean hugging Guyger), Judge Kemp descended from the bench and walked over to Guyger thumbing through a book. 
Kemp read from her own Christian bible and reportedly counseled Guyger as to how she thought the gospel might work wonders for the soon-to-be numbered – in a state penitentiary – murderess. 
“I have three or four more bibles at home,” Kemp says. “This is your job for the next month.” 
The judge told Guyger to study John chapter 3 verse 16 – and then proceeded to read it aloud.

Why does Judge Kemp hate the First Amendment? This is a clear church-state separation violation, as I see it. And, I don't get non-Gnu Atheists, including a person I follow on Disqus, who clearly not only refuses to see this, but is actually excuse making for Kemp.

That then said, was justice done?

Hell no. Whether she was racist or not, though she said she shot deliberately, the classic, to the public, idea of premeditation seems absent.

On the other hand, prosecutors' closing argument made a powerful statement about Guyger's alleged state of mind. (The judge disallowed defense expert witnesses testifying more specifically about that; that will surely be a core part of the appeal claim.)

Some sort of plea deal should have been reached before the trial, on manslaughter, but with a sentence of at least 10 years, and maybe as high as 20 because of her apparent callousness. Plea negotiations are almost never revealed in public later, so I don't know what was offered by prosecution.

As for what time she WILL get? Balch Springs cop Roy Oliver, with a previous disciplinary record, got 15 years for murdering Jordan Edwards.

Update: Guyger has been sentenced to 10 years. That sounds about "right."

On the third hand, as regular readers may have been expecting? Per Walter Kaufman, there's really no such thing as guilt or justice and certainly, contra John Rawls, no such thing as fairness.

Beyond the stereotypical tropes that "justice won't bring back Botham Jean" or similar, murder instead of manslaughter is no more likely to rehabilitate Amber Guyger in prison, assuming she indeed needs some sort or rehabilitation. Even should Jean's family sue the apartment complex for its alleged security lapses, murder instead of manslaughter won't give them much more lawsuit leverage. As for Jean's family mentioning Michael Brown and Eric Garner, among others? Guyger's conviction won't bring them back to life, nor, since murder is a state-level crime, will it likely affect criminal justice of police officers in other states. Schutze does get that right, after you wade through his pontificating. But, nobody was listening to you that night.

Sidebar: Per Grist' plaint, Stephen Young says Dallas police chief U. Renee Hall says her department is investigating the tampering issue, as well as Mata's actions in sequestering Guyger in a police cruiser with recording items turned off. But, given all that, this sounds like fox-and-henhouse stuff. The Rangers normally investigate law enforcement agencies on potential criminality. Hell, why isn't Dallas County DA John Creuzot launching his investigators with the focus of possible grand jury action? Per Hall's claim that the DPD isn't all about this? Really? You let a person who never should have been a big-city cop become one of your cops. And per her information, you've got some sort of pool of anti-black racism among non-black officers.

Sidebar 2: Guyger's family also, looking at that photo, at least the left-hand half of it, left themselves open to charges of inbreeding or something.

If sex is only for reproduction then the Pope still has it wrong

I'm talking about the rhythm method, or per the old joke:

"What is rhythm and blues?"

"A Catholic form of birth control and the results nine months later."

And, in reality, it's the one form of birth control approved by Holy Mother Church.

But, as Jesus allegedly told Pharisees about Mosaic law on divorce, maybe that even is a concession to human weakness, if one inserts oneself into the shoes of orthodox Catholic theological teaching.

Because, if sex is ONLY for reproduction, the Pope, if not a hypocrite, should command Catholics to turn the rhythm method on its head and have sex ONLY during female fertility periods. Nothing else is allowed. Especially for men, now that we know what's going on, because:


-->

That said, let's shift gears here a sec.

I'm kind o surprised that Joe Smith didn't look at the golden plates one last time with his Urim and Thummim and combine a new revelation about this with plural marriage. Since the myth of menstrual synchronization is just that, it would kill multiple birds with one stone.

"Not tonight, dear, I can only sleep with Hepzibah, my Wife No. 3!"

After all, to extend the guys with red slippers logically out, it should be considered a sin, since men can control when they emit sperm, which women can't with egg cells, not to "scatter one's seed" as much as heterosexually possible (within the authoritarian male confines of marriage, of course).

But, back to the guys with the funky headgear, not the funky spectacles.

The appeal to natural law also falls flat.

First, animals have gay sex. And oral sex. And all sorts of other verschnizzle.

And, re masturbation? They do that, too, including any dogs in the Vatican, if they're male, humping the leg of its current occupant, Francis the Talking Pope.

And, if we really want to trump the guys with the gilded house? To get back to Joe Smith, the popes are sinning by not being married and procreating. Ditto monks etc.

September 30, 2019

Mac Thornberry joins the Texodus,
hoist by his own petard

Mac Thornberry, despite being from the reddest of red districts, is the latest GOP Congresscritter to join the #Texodus. I suspect two factors are at play. One is that many Republicans expect, despite their whistling in the dark, that Dems will keep control of the House. The other is that GOP term limits for both committee chairs AND ranking minority members mean that a GOP Congresscritter has a short and steep bell curve on real power. That's as the House GOP said last week it was reconsidering the limits. Thornberry is mentioned by name as ranking member of the major Armed Services Committee who would have been term-limited after his current term.

I'm sure this is driving others out, too, and is leading others to think about it. The Politico piece mentions bald headed goon Kevin Brady. (No, not THAT bald headed goon, Gohmert Pyle.)

Thornberry is the sixth Texas GOPer to leave. He was part of Newt Gingrich's wave in 1994. That wave included and was built on Newt's Contract with on America, which included the term limits issue. So, this is a kind of "hoist by one's own petard" issue.
That is funny.

Given that Armed Services was his only current committee assignment, he would have been low man on a totem pole in 2021. His situation is somewhat similar to Mike Conaway just to his south. Conaway was going to be term-limited out of Ag, a powerful committee in rural parts of Texas. That said, Conaway was on other committees, including ... Armed Services.

Three of the other four Texodusters were likely to lose. Will Hurd, Kenny Marchant and Pete Olson all faced tough battles. As for other longer-serving Rethugs, Louie Gohmert will never be given a committee chairmanship because even the House GOP ain't that stupid (I think) and therefore has a free pass for life.

Meanwhile, the Trib needs Patrick Svitek, at the second link, to talk to some of his staff:
Weirdly, in an earlier tweet, she said she was expecting he'd retire. Well, that IS what was in his mind. What else would it be? Peter Principle at the Trib, hard at work?

As for Mac's future? Let's see ... 25-plus years in DC, ranking member on Armed Services? Defense contractor lobbying position should be opening in about 18 months!

In the longer term, a district like Mac's, where the small cities of West Texas are almost as winger as the surrounding farm-and-ranch, or farm-ranch-oil, counties will remain fairly safe. BUT ... the number of Congresscritters is more than the number of state senators; at some point, more of Texas' rural Congresscritters are going to face some of the same redistricting issues as rural state Legiscritters like Drew Springer, discussed here.

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Speaking of, the race has its first potential candidates. Cooke County Judge Jason Brinkley has formed an exploratory committee. Amarillo City Councilwoman Elaine Hays has done likewise. Springer is going to stay running for HD 68, as I expected.

Still no word on whether or not Pat Fallon, who has now said he will NOT primary Cornyn for the Senate, might jump in. (I've asked.)

Should Drew Springer be in trouble?
Well, Dems (or Greens, or even Libs) have to run a candidate

Texas Democrats are lacking just nine seats from regaining the Texas House, and presuming that Donald Trump is renominated, are hoping he is a lead anchor.

In my mind, Drew Springer SHOULD be in trouble, if not immediately, then down the road. House District 68 may be rural, but its eastern end is in Cooke County, just north of Denton, where the Metroplex has officially arrived. More and more people are commuting from Gainesville and the rest of the county to Denton and some even to the Metromess proper, and it can't be the case that all of them are wingnuts. (On the other hand, per City-Data, it went 83 percent Trump in 2016.)

But ... it's kind of hard to tell by local elections, as per Ballotpedia, Springer has been unopposed every November from his initial 2012 election on.

So, let's say this district is too wingnut to flip now.

What about 2022 or later after redistricting?

Contra Drew and Pat's excellent adventure recently, although Texas GOPers' future overall depends on rural districts, they'll shave the comfort margin those districts have to try to preserve suburban districts, or semi-rural ones in West Texas that still have a larger anchor community.

That would be a district like James Frank's 69th, anchored on Wichita Falls. And Wichita Falls itself has been growth-flat for a decade or better. The collar counties in his district are even lower growth.

Or Lubbock, split between Dustin Burrows' 83rd and John Frullo's 84th. Or Ken King's gerrymandered 88th, which slithers between Springer and Amarillo while dodging both it and Lubbock.

Indeed, given how depopulated Panhandle and Southern Plains rural counties have become, redistricting will be a clash between Springer and King if Springer is not shoved east.

To the south are Mike Lang's 60th, which has no hugely urban areas, and other than Hood County, is low growth, and Stan Lambert's 71st, centered on Abilene, and low-moderate growth, not likely to change. To the south/southeast is Phil King's 61st. That district has been having population growth a little ahead of state average, but not that much ahead, and Phil King ain't getting his district shuffled. (Map of all Texas state House districts is here.)

Denton County is hived up among four districts right now. A slice of it being part of a fifth district seems most likely. And, it's shifting more and more Democratic.

Anyway, with all of this, "my Democrats right or wrong" people like Kuff, instead of worrying, or non-worrying, about HB 2504 and Greens, should instead focus internally.

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In a sense, I "don't get" Libertarians not contesting this seat even more than I don't get Dems not competing. To build your image as a statewide party, at some point, you've got to compete these rural areas just like more winger urban areas. If you're the state Libertarian Party, and you truly believe you have an alternative message to the GOP, you need to stand by that statewide, and find rural candidates with that same gumption.

Of course, the first of the two most successful Republicans to run for the Libertarian presidential nod, Ron Paul here in Texas, exemplified what I think is still a split of sort among state libertarians. Namely, are you real libertarians on social issues or not? Gary Johnson was and is. Paul was anti-choice, iffy on other issues and ... well, a racist.