SocraticGadfly: 3/3/24 - 3/10/24

March 09, 2024

Mexican elections, Iranian rise and more from Counterpunch

First, though their election is some time away, it looks like "AMLO," Andrea Merida Lopez Obrador, will be succeeded by someone in the same political vein, former Mexico City governor Claudia Sheinbaum. Read the whole piece for the big picture on the elections, including the issue of dealing with the narcotraficantes in several Mexican states.

Next, as it did nearly 20 years ago thanks to Shrub Bush's stupidity, could Iran be "winning" the Middle East? Juan Cole ponders. He notes Iran's outreach to both Saudi Arabia and Turkey in the wake of Israel's genocide, and their positive responses.

Meanwhile, Nicky Reid, in what's controversial even for CP, asks if Israel still even has a right to exist.

Moving beyond the Middle East, Gregory Elich notes how, 25 years ago, Madeleine Albright sabotaged peace talks vis-a-vis the Kosovans in Yugoslavia, eventually leading to war — one that the U.S. wanted. It's a semi-bright line from there to Ukraine, of course.

And, in the always interesting Roaming Charges, Jeff St. Clair notes that "uncommitted" got even stronger Democratic primary support in Hawaii than in Minnesota. And, that Biden hates Cubans like he hates Palestinians, and more.

And, as I told St. Clair on Twitter, per one of his links? Morphine Mitch McConnell's sister-in-law, Angela Chao, was found drowned in a pond near Austin, in Blanco County, IN A TESLA? Did Elmo Musk whack her? INVESTIGATE ELMO!

==

And a sidebar from ProPublica. A Washington state human rights group got a peek at ICE deportation flights.

March 08, 2024

Mark Ames was right about Bellingcat

I was blocked by Eliot Higgins of Bellingcat two weeks ago. I discovered that when Jeet Heer was quote tweeting over just how bad of hasbara he was spouting:

And realized I couldn't see just how bad it was.

Obviously, Higgins hadn't blocked Jeet. I don't know if he's yet blocked Mark Ames, who, in me talking a few weeks ago on Twitter about the Texas Observer jumping in bed with Bellingcat to find that aklt-right white nationalists were active in Parker County (shock), referenced two Ames tweets about Bellingcat, though neither was a quote-tweet of Higgins or other top brass. 

For the unawares, Bellingcat is, contra how the Observer describes it, a Cold War 2.0 and Nat-Sec Nutsacks™ facilitator. See this Mark Ames Tweet, for example. Or see this retweet by Ames, noting that Bellingcat has gone radio-silent over Gaza. Wiki glosses over most of the challenges to Bellingcat reporting. Shock me; in related news, Wiki also glosses over Alexei Navalny's alt-right nationalism, Islamophobia and more.  In addition, per this Ames Tweet, yep, Bellingcat hunting down left-wing German grannies instead of talking about Gaza is a hoot. Yes, per the NYT story, Daniella Klett was a fugitive. But, she'd done nothing in 40 years. Bellingcat could have bigger fish to fry if it wanted. And, a response Tweet to Ames notes that Bellingcat employs an ex-Stasi agent.

On Bellingcat in general? Read this for more. Even the New Republic notes that Bellingcat gets money from The National Endowment for Democracy, for doorknob's sake.

That said, per the official Bellingcat Twitter account, yeah, as of the start of March, it was radio-silent indeed. Plenty to say about Russia, naturally, with the likes of Fukuyama being advisors. Nothing about the Gaza Genocide. One post in the first half of February about Rafah and .... using tools adapted from Ukraine to track bombing in Rafah. No moral comment at all. A post at the start of February about a Beeb show talking about the "disinformation war" in the Middle East. No use of the word "hasbara" in the tweet.

The Beeb podcast itself at least tilt toward he said, she said twosiderism. As part of that, Higgins himself calls out specific social media accounts after that, for repackaging false claims. And, of course, this pivots almost immediately to Russia-Ukraine.

And, that's the only two tweets about Israel-Gaza going back to before Christmas 2023. Before that, on Dec. 20, there was a tweet with the gist of the Feb. 13 tweet about Rafah, but before the creation of the Rafah pocket. A Dec. 18 tweet talked about the "environmental damage" Israel was causing in Gaza. No, really.

Dec. 15 had a Tweet about a Russian anti-immigrant project — ignoring Alexei Navalny's own anti-immigrant, alt-right past, shoved under the rug by him, but never repudiated. 

Before that? A Dec. 12 tweet about "unraveling" the death of Shireen Abu Akleh. Her death had been unraveled well before that, given that she had been killed seven months earlier. The piece itself has a big data cram, lots of videos, analysis, etc., then says, in essence, "it appears," without making a call. This itself looks like hasbara, in that somebody prodded Bellingcat to do "something.



March 07, 2024

Texas Progressives' non-primary Roundup thoughts

Income inequality in America is probably EVEN WORSE than even a Piketty says.

The State Bar of Texas fined and gave a probated suspension to Starr County DA Gocha Ramirez for his attempt to prosecute for murder a woman doing a home-brew abortion. Cue the wingnut dogwhistles about the state bar.

SocraticGadfly has a roundup of duopoly and third-party/independent presidential thoughts.

Federal judge David Ezra hit the pause button on the unconstitutional SB4, pushed on the House side by my legiscritter, lawyer David Spiller. Above all, he rejected the idea that Texas is being "invaded" by Ill Eagles in any legal sense. At the Monthly, Forrest Wilder says the border crisis is the best thing that happened to Strangeabbott. The Fifth Circuit quickly reversed, but paused that a week for the Biden Administration to appeal to SCOTUS.

Ivan Cantu is the latest possibly innocent man executed by Texas.

The RRC continues to boast about plugging abandoned wells even as it continues to try to dump responsibility for which wells are under its oversight.

It's looking more likely that Kenny Boy Paxton will primary John Cornyn in two years, even though Big John is more Trumpy than Havana Ted Cruz. (How a conviction in his securities trial next month would be worked around remains to be seen. Cornyn referenced that in Tweeting back at Kenny Boy that "It's hard to run from prison, Ken!" AFAIK, Big John, not staff, does many of his tweets.)

Off the Kuff interprets Greg Abbott's incoherent BS about IVF.

CVS and Walgreens are about to start selling mifepristone, the primary abortion by medications drug.

Sorry, Caitlin Clark, but #RockChalk Lynette Woodard and fuck the NCAA.

Credit where credit is due: Genocide Joe is actually doing something on student loans.

Neil at the Houston Democracy Project asked how Houston police & Mayor Whitmire would respond to Trump's openly-planned mass round-ups of migrants. 

The Texas Tribune tells you how to help and how to stay safe in the Panhandle during the wildfires.

Ryan Puzucki reports from the YMIBY conference in Austin.

The Texas Living Waters Project brings highlights from their first Texas Water Trust Workshop. 

The Dallas Observer listened to Ted Cruz's podcast with Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson so you don't have to.

And, a late primary thought: As seen in the San Antonio Current, via Kuff, Biden, more than "uncommitted," had an expressly pro-Palestinian candidate among his Texas opposition. I'm not a Doink, but if I had known more about the platform of Armando Perez-Serrato in advance, I would have publicized him. As I told the person quote-tweeted at the end of the piece, per SAC, the real question is what will the likes of Perez-Serrato do in November?

March 06, 2024

Greens half-drink libertarian Kool-Aid on fiat money

The Green Party's version of "abolish the Fed" is better at start than many L/libertarian nutters' babblings about fiat money. Actually, no, that was pretty much a head fake. 

It quickly goes off into the ditch, starting with the fact that it IS in the same neighborhood of a babbling about fiat money, just without using that term, and without taking the "logical" next step into goldbuggery.

There is no such thing as "debt free money." This is to confuse money with the federal budget.

Second, what's to stop the Treasury from "printing like crazy," just as the Fed eventually does? What's to stop the Treasury from doing quantitative easing?

Third, if you believe Congress can step in and directly control the money? Do you want the same wingnuts who hold the government hostage over debt ceiling limits to do that as well? Oy.

Fourth, if you really are rejecting fiat money? Gold has no intrinsic value. Are you going to back the greenback with oil before the fracking runs out? The uranium that has intrinsic nuclear weapons value, but those are really the fiat currency version of weaponry. (We hope.) And a side note for any L/libertarians reading? "Fiat money" is not necessarily by government fiat; and when Andy Jackson killed the Second Bank of the US, his "pet banks" did not have 100 percent specie or bullion backing for their banknotes, contra a nutter claim on this Reddit post. (Shock me.)

The only think that could have made this more whackadoodle was to fuse this "debt free money" with the "print all you want" of Modern Monetary Theory and then try to reconcile the two.

Seriously, I remember in 2009, during the Great Recession, protesting in front of the Dallas Fed. I firmly distanced myself from a couple of L/libertarians; the most vocal was a Paul-tard. (Ron, not Rand, who hadn't gotten that much airplay yet.)

That all said, when you do teh Google (or teh DuckDuck) on "debt-free money," you'll get a variety of definitions of just what it is and how it's supposed to work. This site says it could include non-government currency, which does exist already for trading within certain local networks but has no value outside that community. Given that "this site" is New Agey, that would fit the modern Green Party well.

More charitably, the GP statement may be thinking of "social credit." If so? First, the piece doesn't spell it out. Second, per the link, social credit is no panacea. It has a quasi-idealistic view of how a modern economy should work. Second, at least in the US, it's been pushed to a fair degree by L/libertarians.

Top blogging of February

Unless noted otherwise, all posts are from February.

No. 10? A Texas Progressives roundup that began with Christofascist Tim Dunn.

No. 9? I didn't start this until March 5 and a post from yesterday is already in the top 10, so skipping.

No. 8: The climate crisis of a full 12 months over 1.5C.

No. 7? The whackadoodle in my Texas HD-68 race.

No. 6? Laughing at, and wondering at, Greg Abbott's and Ken Paxton's dueling anti-endorsements. (That's what they are, really, is anti-endorsements.)

No. 5? My thoughts on the "interesting" Reddit IPO.

No. 4? A venture into alt-history, specifically thoughts on a different possible turnout for England's Glorious Revolution.

No. 3? Visiting Bombay Beach, California, and mulling issues related to climate change and the demise of the Salton Sea. An essay in photojournalism as part of it.

No. 2? Via Moss Robeson and Ivan Katchanovski, how the US didn't want a peace deal at the Maidan and ditto in spades for Ukrainian fascists.

And No. 1? 

Drumroll ....

How Jeff Goodell hit some foul balls and pulled punches in "The Heat Will Kill You First."

March 05, 2024

Texas Progressives talk primary turkey

Six anti-voucher Texas House Republicans have somehow escaped Gov. Greg Abbott endorsing their opponents. No word from Strangeabbott on why. The Trib adds that Abbott's endorsement carries more weight than AG Kenny Boy Paxton's impeachement-related endorsements.

Speaking of that, SocraticGadfly talked about dueling endorsements in cases in the same race where Abbott endorses one candidate and Paxton another.

Tricky Ricky Perry personally stumped for Speaker Dade Phelan. Was the old Dadester in that much trouble? We'll find out tonight. That said, it's never a good sign when the cliched "embattled" is part of the lede. At the Monthly, Chris Hooks has more on Phelan's struggles versus the wingnuts-squared of today's Texas GOP. Sidebar: Not for the first time, Chris Hooks WRONGLY calls anti-abortion Joe Straus a "moderate Republican." As I told him on Twitter, it's: not true; contributes to Overton Window shifting; brings Hooks' credibility into question. (That said, he's a Green-hater of some standing.)

SocraticGadfly made early primary predictions for his area.

March 04, 2024

Quick take on SCOTUS keeping Trump on the ballot

First, the 9-0 ruling meant that everybody was on board.

The biggie is "inside baseball." As I see it, per that link above from the Guardian, with these quotes:

“We conclude that States may disqualify persons holding or attempting to hold state office. But States have no power under the Constitution to enforce Section 3 with respect to federal offices, especially the Presidency,” the court wrote in an unsigned opinion. Congress, the court said, had to enact the procedures for disqualification under Section 3.
“State-by-state resolution of the question whether Section 3 bars a particular candidate for President from serving would be quite unlikely to yield a uniform answer consistent with the basic principle that the President … represent[s] all the voters in the Nation,” the court added.

 this means that Congress, were it to so choose, can "nationalize" voting standards for president. Yeah, states that wanted to buck that could run two elections with two sets of standards, but would probably get tired of that. It also means that vote-counting standards for president could be nationalized.

Indeed, it's arguable that the "nationalization" could extend, or be extended, to House and Senate races, too.

I'm frankly surprised that the six conservative justices didn't pull a Bush v. Gore and say that this case was not to be used as legal precedent. I mean, Thomas was part of that case himself. That said, since then, it has been used as an occasional precedent.

But, the court, even with a quasi-per curiam ruling, wasn't unanimous on the issue of how to enforce Section 3 of the 14th Amendment:

The majority opinion went on to say that the only way to enforce section 3 was by specifically tailored congressional legislation to determine which individuals should be disqualified for insurrection.But Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson all said that finding went beyond the scope of the case, with the liberal justices specifically saying the court was shielding insurrectionists from accountability.

Barrett wouldn't go that far, but rowed her own oar in attacking that last statement.

Question for the last four: How do they envision this would be enforced in some other way than by enabling legislation? A January 2025 replay of sorts of 2021?

==

As for the ruling? Given the dogma (sic) of federalism in U.S. jurisprudence, one could argue it was wrongly decided, or, at a minimum, if the six wanted to find a reason to find in favor of Trump, this was the wrong legal reason. One wonders if a Thomas indeed wanted to find for Trump, but on other grounds, and The Umpire pushed for unanimity on this ground. At Law Dork, Chris Greidner indirectly addresses some of this.

That said, let's look at the language of Section 3:

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

Per the last sentence, it's arguable that the five-justice majority, while violating textualism, may have followed originalism. Going back to Confederate days, this basically was not tested by attempts to run for office until the large Congressional amnesty of the 1872 Amnesty Act (over-broadly offered, IMO) late in Grant's first term. And then Congress, by amnesty, generally removed the disqualification, then, per that link and Victor Berger's case, it could decide whether to disqualify later actors or not.

I've always said I thought the case was not "ripe" legally, the Trump case. He has not been charged with, let alone convicted of, insurrection. Blame Jack Smith for not even bringing a charge. Blame Merrick Garland, as well as Judge Aileen Cannon, for the dilatoriness of the Trump prosecution on acts connected in some way to, but not part of, Jan. 6, 2021, in general.

Via BAN, Marty Lederman also thinks, like me, that this was the right ruling but for the wrong reason. He adds that the reasoning followed was not at all an angle raised by Trump's attorneys. He doesn't raise the ripeness issue, though. He does reject the idea that the Supremes ruled that Trump cannot be removed from the ballot, period. Where Josh Blackman got that, I don't know; I don't and didn't need Lederman's help to know that's just untrue. (Exactly how one would get to a "ripeness" based issue on legal grounds, I don't know. In Colorado, since that was a lawsuit, you could do it on standing issues. But in Maine, with its Secretary of State ruling, you couldn't.)

Rick Hasen calls the ruling a "self-own" by the Umpire. He references Lederman and others, and notes the 1869 ruling that was part of the background was NOT a Supreme Court ruling. Follow various links of him for more. He agrees that a narrowly tailored ruling could have been defensible.

==

Per a commenter, the Colorado Supremes may have "adjudicated" Trump an insurrectionist. He was not tried on the charge of insurrection. Contra the first poster, insurrection is a criminal charge, and that's what matters. The issue of ballot removal being a civil charge must follow from that. Vis-a-vis the original purpose of the 14th Amendment, as noted, no Confederate official pursued running for office after the 14th Amendment and before the 1872 Amnesty Act. Ergo, whether a state court, or federal, could "adjudicate" rebellion was never decided.

==

Per same commenter, part 2?

First, the Congressional Research Service is wrong in various ways.

First of all, per this and many other analyses of federal statute, even if "rebellion" and "insurrection" aren't defined in the Constitution, and aren't clearly defined in statutory law, they're not the same. For that reason alone, this is not a self-executing issue, per my ripeness and other things. De facto, there was a rebellion since April 14, 1861, or possibly Dec. 19, 1860, in South Carolina. De facto, it was ended in 1865, and de jure, officially declared over by various statutory law, then the debt clause of the 14th Amendment and other things. Because the Confederate States of America constituted itself, specific persons could be identified with this rebellion on a de facto basis. It's quite arguably not the same with the insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021. Looking at then-president Trump's comments on that day about "go home in peace," and given that the electoral votes were counted, after delay, it would be hard to convict him of insurrection. Impossible? No. Hard? Yes. Ergo, even if insurrection and rebellion are the same. This piece linked at CRS pushes too hard. That gets me back to the original. Blame Merrick Garland for being dilatory. Blame Jack Smith for pulling punches on charges filed.

Second, Congressional membership, per the Constitutional specification of it judging the qualifications of its members, is not the same as the Executive. As noted, if members of House or Senate, on possibly more realistic grounds than on Jan. 6, 2021, want to refuse to count electoral votes for Trump next January if he has not yet been tried, let alone convicted, they can do that. In that same vein, CRS DOES note that Congress, not just the president, can call out the militia if deemed necessary. But it doesn't say how that would be achieved. Formal vote of both Houses? Just one House? The Speaker acting alone?

Related to that? This piece linked at CRS actually undercuts the thesis of the CRS piece. It notes that federal actions undertaken in the late 1860s and early 1870s were done after law, then the Amendment, were passed, and were done against sitting officeholders.

So, "cruxdaemon," I have actually read. You probably have not.

==

Also per that same commenter, I'm not going to expand this post and these responses to him to cover originalism or textualism in incredible detail, let alone go into either of those philosophies on specific yet broad issues like gun control and the Second Amendment. We're just not going there, and I remind you that I moderate comments here. 

And, no, I don't "revere" the Constitution. I'm a leftist, not a liberal. I "accept" the Constitution. THAT is something entirely different. See what I said above about the mechanism, or lack thereof, for Congress calling out the militia. And, I said, in my discussion of oral argument in the case a month ago, that the Constitution is in many ways a "clusterfuck."

==

Two final thoughts.

First, to any BlueAnon who don't get the difference between everyday-world thoughts and legal definitions and burdens of proof? Move on. I personally think Trump egged on what could be seen as an insurrection while continuing to stress that proving that as a criminal case is a high, high bar.

Second, to BlueAnon moaning otherwise? On paper, the SCOTUS ruling could be used to promote, or seen as promoting, uniformity in third-party presidential candidate ballot listing, but that will never actually happen.


Panhandles wildfires notes and thoughts

All links are to the Texas Tribune.

First, climate change is real, it's getting worse, and it's exacerbating an already extant winter wildfire season in West Texas. That said, to expand on the Trib, while the Panhandle wildfire area is not currently in drought, much of it was both last summer and the summer of 2022.

Second, Strangeabbott and his emergency management folks say the cause of all wildfires, and the Smokehouse in particular, remain under investigation. But, as of that time, the first (of surely many) lawsuits had been filed, and that over a downed Xcel power line. Shades of California wildfires, and shades of utility company capitalism in action.

Meanwhile, many families look for thoughts and prayers at church. This secularist knows that, per the Twitter hashtag, all that's really there is tots and pears. As with tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes and mass shootings (including those at a church), where was your god at the time? And do NOT give me the "inscrutability of god" bullshit.