Really, it doesn’t matter. Cloture is a vote-by-vote issue, not some “lockbox” issue that you establish at the start of a new Senate. So, in that sense, whether Senate Dems can break the 60-vote mark with or without Joementum is a bit irrelevant.
If they hit 58 without him, they know that Maine’s Snowe and Collins will support them on a fair amount of social issues. That’s 60. Midwestern Republicans, especially those up for re-election in 2010, may run for cover enough to support cloture too.
So, if Senate Dems get to 58 counting Vermont pseudosocialist Bernie Sanders, they can boot Lieberman from the caucus without any worries.
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