At least if lithium (small PDF) is the proposed prime battery material for 3-5 billion cars in 40 years, with at least 10 percent of them plug-in hybrids. Current worldwide lithium production would have to ramp up somewhere around 10-fold for sure, 100-fold, possibly.
Interestingly, well over half of lithium salts are concentrated in just three, adjacent, countries — Argentina, Bolivia and Chile.
The reading really gets good on about page 5 of the 14-page PDF.
Other noted problems —
• Within the ABC, much of the lithium is on the altiplano; little roads, high altitude, etc. Short of Tibet, it’s about the worst inhabited place in the world to try to mine commercially.
• Nationalization. Given that just three countries control this much lithium, this would be a slam dunk compared to the work of organizing OPEC.
But, the alternatives? The current NiMH requires cobalt, too, and can’t be ramped up to 2050 needs.
Another nickel-based battery and a zinc-based one may be more realistic. But, they have a lower life expectancy in terms of recharge cycles.
And, whichever way we go, as we go down the downslope of Peak Oil, the battery requirements are going to ramp up.
Picking winners and losers, whether done by governments, private industry, or cooperative, is going to be very dicey in years to come.
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