They claim they can, per the Trib.
I know why they think that.
One reason is, like 2018, Trump is on the downslope, and it's in a midterm.
So, context? The 2017 House was 95-55. That was cut to 83-67 in 2019. That's probably not a fair comp, as the 95-55 split was incredibly high. So, with Trump actually running for that second term in 2020?
The House split was unchanged. It then widened 3 in 2023 and 2 more in 2025.
Also, Trump was not yet that unpopular with Never Trumper Rethuglicans in 2018, too. I can't remember what was behind the big shift and the Trib offers no insight.
As for the other reasons they think they have a shot?
Kenny Boy Paxton will not be such a lead anchor for the GOP as they think, and Teenybopper Talarico will not be such a boost. It's possible that many Texas Hispanics who flopped to Trump two years ago look at Talarico and stay home. They don't vote Paxton, but they don't vote Talarico either.
The third reason? We'll see if redistricting overreach plays out in the state House as well as US Congress. Might be room around the edges but no more.
Otherwise? If a fragile would-be cease-fire gets extended beyond the 60 days of June 19, if ratified then, gas prices keep going down and Trump keeps looking better that way.
Strangeabbott has partially removed data centers as an electoral issue, though not totally.
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