SocraticGadfly: Climate scientists in despair

June 04, 2024

Climate scientists in despair

As we should all be, per this Guardian piece.

And, the piece was written before the latest sweltering in Mexico. 

This:

“I think 3C is being hopeful and conservative. 1.5C is already bad, but I don’t think there is any way we are going to stick to that. There is not any clear sign from any government that we are actually going to stay under 1.5C.”

Is your entree nutgraf.

It's true. Much of the second half of the piece talks about how 1.5C is a political game. Only about 25 percent of surveyed scientists think the world will hold there. I'm on record as saying that I think James Hansen is right and there's a good chance we hit 4C by the end of this century.

What I find most interesting, is one biggie, with two subparts.

Not a single United States scientist is cited, and definitely not the Climate Change Obamiacs like Michael Mann and Katharine Hayhoe. That's because they're part of the socio-political hackery on this issue.

Otherwise, those who think we can hold the line below 2.5C, even? They seem to expect too much from what I call salvific technologism or what Yevgeny Morozov calls solutionism.

More EVs? Will be partially offset by more data centers.

Replacements for concrete will be slow and very partial.

Most of the developed world cutting its meat eating by 70 percent rather than holding out hope for vaccinating cows against belching and farting so much (and with what currently unknown side effects?) is not likely.

This:

“The good news is the worst-case scenario is avoidable,” said Michael Meredith, at the British Antarctic Survey. “We still have it in our hands to build a future that is much more benign climatically than the one we are currently on track for.” But he also expects “our societies will be forced to change and the suffering and damage to lives and livelihoods will be severe”.

Is at least halfway realistic. But, would a Mann or Hayhoe even say it right now?

And, don't look, but as we see that cleaner marine diesel may be a contributor to warmer ocean waters, the push for geoengineering will likely increase.

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