Did Tony La Russa magically revitalize the 1996 Cardinals by shoving aside Ozzie Smith?

Every older St. Louis Cardinals fan is surely familiar with the first year of history after Tony La Russa was named manager of the Birdos. Walt Jocketty was looking for replacements at shortstop and after failure to land the likes of Walt Weiss and Greg Gagne as free agents, settled on Royce Clayton as a long-term, and possibly immediate, replacement for the Wizard, Ozzie Smith. The rest of the story is how Red Tony rudely shoved aside Smith, after claiming he would have every chance to remain the starter if he could win the position, and of getting to go out a winner as a deserving full-time player with the Cardinals. (Smith had already indicated 1996 was likely his final year.)

Unfortunately, there's a lot of less than full information out there about the issue, as told by the likes of Ben Gosar of Viva El Birdos. (Ben has responded that he didn't mean to relitigate 1996.)

Royce 1996 did NOT have a better year than Ozzie, or even an equal year. Same WAR? Yes. But it took Royce 2x as many at bats. Ozzie had a 0.8 WAA, while Royce was in the hole at -0.1. This is one of several reasons I take a close look at WAA as well as WAR. Over a career, especially when considering a player's possible Hall-worthiness, the WAA/WAR ratio is a big tell if a player is, or is not, a "compiler." If a player's career WAA is more than 50 percent of their WAR, and they're otherwise on the borderline of consideration? Vote ’em in!

Back to the main narrative.

Per one of the stories Ben linked:

"I'd play Ozzie until he proves he can't play," said Chuck Tanner, currently a scout with the Milwaukee Brewers who managed four major league clubs, including the White Sox. "He's a Hall of Fame shortstop. There is no indication he can't play--not yet. An if he needs a rest, and he sure isn't going to be able to play every day, then I'd play Clayton."

As for who's telling the truth about Ozzie being promised a shot at still being a starter? I know whose word I'll trust first. (The Trib piece actually has Red Tony using "sincere" and "sincerity.")

As for Tony always doing what was best for the team? Beyond running off Scott Rolen, uhh, being drunk as a manager, which likely led to enabling of bad behavior by some players? NOT best for the team.

As for 1996 and the "end result"? Correlation doesn't mean causation. IF you compare that team to 1995, a lot stands out.

One? Tom Pagnozzi had a MUCH better year and was healthy a full season. Gary Gaetti was a HUGE improvement over Scott Cooper at 3B. Andy Benes and Todd Stottlemyre were major pitching upgrades.

I don't get some Cards blogs for their homerism over Yadi, or stuff like that. I really don't get blogs that are one-sided toward Red Tony on this issue.

Is it possible that telling Ozzie he'd have to compete for the job would shake things up? Yes, there Ben is right. But, per the umpiring rule of "tie goes to the runner," Ozzie was at least equal to Royce in spring training, to riff on Chuck Tanner, and ... La Russa lies.

What it really was, IMO, was a lawyer's mindset. Tony the Pony had a pre-established conclusion he was headed toward, and he was carefully framing his "facts in evidence." All of us can engage in a certain degree of motivated reasoning, but lawyers are trained in it and hired for their skill at it.

So, what we REALLY should be saying is that Walt Jocketty magically revitalized the 1996 Cardinals by his offseason acquisitions.

Were you judge managers? As I've mentioned before, there's one tool, via B-Ref. That's going to team pages, and seeing how a team's W-L record tracked against its Pythagorean estimates. A manager who is at or above the bar year after year is a good manager. I even blogged about that. (And, Baseball Reference has promised to take under advisement posting Pythags on manager pages.)

As for Tony the Pony lighting a fire under the team for 1996? Well, Pags was one of just two position player starters over the age of 30.

One final thought re Ben and Tony doing whatever it takes to win, or whatever it takes for the team? Yeah, that included ignoring roiding both in Oakland and St. Louis. He talks about Red Tony benching Mark McGwire in the playoffs near the end of his career. Well, Big Mac would have been out of baseball by this time if not for Red Tony's blind eyes. And, of course, there's Jose Canseco, the Typhoid Mary of roiding.