SocraticGadfly: Are we screwed on global warming?

September 25, 2009

Are we screwed on global warming?

Reportedly, the best latest estimates are that average global temperatures will rise at least 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, even with the best current-level efforts AND the most optimistic pledges to address the issue by governments around the world all being honored. That is according to a report released Thursday by the United Nations Environment Program.

At 3.5 degrees Celsius, that is WELL above the 2C target of major environmental and climate change organizations.

And, as you can see from the graphic, that's only if we do everything now in the pipeline to address carbon dioxide emissions. More realistically, temperatures will climb 8.3 degrees F, or 4.5C.

The details of what this mean include a six-foot sea rise by the end of the century, an ice-free Arctic Ocean already by 2030, major plant and animal extinctions, and huge shifts in agriculture.

And, yes, huge shifts in U.S. agriculture. If conservative Southern, Southwestern and Midwestern senators can’t support the minimalist Waxman-Markey bill for any other reason, they ought to think about economic self-interest.

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