Is Yadier Molina a Hall of Famer (repost)?

Yadier Molina, the St. Louis Cardinals' backstop for going on 15 years, and arguably the best defensive catcher since Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez, insists that, like Pudge, he belongs in Cooperstown. So do many Cardinal fan blogs.

But, does he?

 

(Note: This is a repost because the original HTML that I had posted using Baseball-Reference's "linker" was apparently invalid. And that's because they changed the order of some of the specific material within the linking for players' names since I first blogged this in advance two weeks ago.

 

Update to the note: OK, maybe it wasn't invalid. As, now, both this AND the original seem to be getting picked up. Just another bad day from B-Ref's RSS feed for blogs. See bottom of page.)

Yes, he broke a counting stats with 2,000 hits, but let's look at the big picture, as I remain less than fully convinced.

First, WAR. He's right at 40, and given his last three years, he won't cross 42 next year, with him pushing off his retirement another year. He could play two more years and not cross 43.

That would leave him behind, among others, the career-ended-by-death Thurman Munson, who criminally is still not in the Hall. It would put him even with Jorge Posada and behind Bill Freehan.

Does anybody think either of them is a HOFer?

Right now, he's 24th in the JAWS ranks.

BUT his defense?!?!

First, dWAR still remains even more subjective than oWAR.

Second, one of the catches ahead of him in dWAR is ... Bob Boone, not close to being a HOFer. In a near tie? Jim Sundberg, also not a HOFer. Tony Pena and Rick Dempsey, among others, have two-thirds his dWAR. Not HOFers.

Now, Yadi's defenders will be saying, but, all that offense!

Well, he had more than Boone or Dempsey. (That, of course, ain't saying much.) Not Sundberg, who's an almost exact comp. And, someone with less dWAR but again, almost the same total? Darrell Porter. Good player. Compelling personal story. Not a HOFer.

Throw in him still being below 1,000 RBIs, which he'll need two seasons to cross, and under 200 HRs, which he won't, period?

 

Related: Of catchers with 2,000 or more hits, he's second-last in homers, last in OPS, second-last in OPS+.

 

Let me put it another way, fellow Birds fans. Right now, besides some of those older catchers, his closest career comp, among semi-contemporaries? Jason Kendall.

Or to put it a third way? Due to the relative lack of offense, he doesn't even have the best WAR of active catchers. Buster Posey does. And, Posey's peak WAR for his seven best years is eight full points ahead of Yadi.

Not a HOFer.

But, that pitch framing!

How do you know Boone wasn't better? Or, certainly, Johnny Bench? Or, Yogi Berra, who reportedly made any pitcher who joined the Yankees better?

I certainly expect him to break 5 percent with the voters in his first year of eligibility, but I'd be surprised to see him ever get over 35 percent or so.

In the Cardinals pantheon picture? Paul Goldschmidt, in my book, is the only person currently wearing birds on bats who has a 50 percent shot or better at Cooperstown, and post-trade, his chances aren't much higher than 50 percent.

Next catcher? Either Posey or Munson, if the next Modern Era version of the "Veterans Committee" pulls its collective head out of its collective ass. (I hope, and semi-expect, writers will recognize that much of Joe Mauer's career was at 1B/DH, and his numbers are nowhere near 1B HOF level. (Posey is moving out from the plate more and more, but I assume he'll still do a fair amount of catching in 2021, and the year off may have rejuvenated him.)

Meanwhile, Kool-Aid peddling Cards fan blogs talk about things like "most clutch Cardinal." Go away. 

I would, to finish prepping for the future, give Yadi ONE more year at a cut rate, and make it clear that, short of him being named Comeback Player of the Year, a second year ain't in the offing. The Cardinals were wisely unsentimental about Albert Pujols and need to take the same stance here.

===

Oh, per the material in parentheses up top? This is frustrating. Since it went to this "linker," I've also seen B-Ref's RSS feed once be "12 hours slow" and once have a full multiple days of glitchiness.

A weird sidebar on that. There are multiple Tony Pena's in MLB history. The Linker deal doesn't sort them out and you have to wade through the HTML as to whether you want THE Tony Pena, as in the Cards' catcher, or one of two later Tony Penas. Ditto for other named duplicated in MLB history, and the Linker doesn't cue you to ask for one of the three. When adjusting the HTML under the hood at the original blog post, as in replacing it for all players' names, I realized that it wasn't that way for Pena there, and I'm not sure I had fixed it; another clue, if I didn't fix it, that something was wrong with the generated HTML.

Is Yadier Molina a Hall of Famer?

Yadier Molina, the St. Louis Cardinals' backstop for going on 15 years, and arguably the best defensive catcher since Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez, insists that, like Pudge, he belongs in Cooperstown. So do many Cardinal fan blogs.

But, does he?

Yes, he broke a counting stats with 2,000 hits, but let's look at the big picture, as I remain less than fully convinced.

First, WAR. He's right at 40, and given his last three years, he won't cross 42 next year, with him pushing off his retirement another year. He could play two more years and not cross 43.

That would leave him behind, among others, the career-ended-by-death Thurman Munson, who criminally is still not in the Hall. It would put him even with Jorge Posada and behind Bill Freehan.

Does anybody think either of them is a HOFer?

Right now, he's 24th in the JAWS ranks.

BUT his defense?!?!

First, dWAR still remains even more subjective than oWAR.

Second, one of the catches ahead of him in dWAR is ... Bob Boone, not close to being a HOFer. In a near tie? Jim Sundberg, also not a HOFer. Tony Pena and Rick Dempsey, among others, have two-thirds his dWAR. Not HOFers.

Now, Yadi's defenders will be saying, but, all that offense!

Well, he had more than Boone or Dempsey. (That, of course, ain't saying much.) Not Sundberg, who's an almost exact comp. And, someone with less dWAR but again, almost the same total? Darrell Porter. Good player. Compelling personal story. Not a HOFer.

Throw in him still being below 1,000 RBIs, which he'll need two seasons to cross, and under 200 HRs, which he won't, period?

 

Related: Of catchers with 2,000 or more hits, he's second-last in homers, last in OPS, second-last in OPS+.

 

Let me put it another way, fellow Birds fans. Right now, besides some of those older catchers, his closest career comp, among semi-contemporaries? Jason Kendall.

Or to put it a third way? Due to the relative lack of offense, he doesn't even have the best WAR of active catchers. Buster Posey does. And, Posey's peak WAR for his seven best years is eight full points ahead of Yadi.

Not a HOFer.

But, that pitch framing!

How do you know Boone wasn't better? Or, certainly, Johnny Bench? Or, Yogi Berra, who reportedly made any pitcher who joined the Yankees better?

I certainly expect him to break 5 percent with the voters in his first year of eligibility, but I'd be surprised to see him ever get over 35 percent or so.

In the Cardinals pantheon picture? Paul Goldschmidt, in my book, is the only person currently wearing birds on bats who has a 50 percent shot or better at Cooperstown, and post-trade, his chances aren't much higher than 50 percent.

Next catcher? Either Posey or Munson, if the next Modern Era version of the "Veterans Committee" pulls its collective head out of its collective ass. (I hope, and semi-expect, writers will recognize that much of Joe Mauer's career was at 1B/DH, and his numbers are nowhere near 1B HOF level. (Posey is moving out from the plate more and more, but I assume he'll still do a fair amount of catching in 2021, and the year off may have rejuvenated him.)

Meanwhile, Kool-Aid peddling Cards fan blogs talk about things like "most clutch Cardinal." Go away. 

I would, to finish prepping for the future, give Yadi ONE more year at a cut rate, and make it clear that, short of him being named Comeback Player of the Year, a second year ain't in the offing. The Cardinals were wisely unsentimental about Albert Pujols and need to take the same stance here.

Texas progressives: Election post-mortem, more

Rather than the normal "bug" for Texas Progressives, we use this great photojournalism shot by Brendan Smialowski.

Texas politics

Off the Kuff had some initial thoughts and observations about the election.

Whistleblowers against Texas AG Ken Paxton detail their allegations.

Dade Phelan says he has the votes to be the next Speaker of the House.

Dems' woes with Hispanics continued, as Trump actually picked up a county at the edge of the Valley and vastly outperformed his 2016 performance. And, no, it was not "just rural voters." The Valley has multiple cities of over 100K. Instead, Texas magnified an issue nationwide — Biden's slipped performance, as compared to Hillary Clinton, among Hispanic voters. And Blacks. (See below.)

And, on Texas Hispanics, if it's that they're now voters, just more Trump voters than in the past? Maybe it's MORE than about damn time that Texas Democrats mayordomo Gilberto Hinojosa et al dump the "demographics is destiny" claims, as Mezzcans for Trump has put paid to the old "non-voting state Texas" claims. I've said for more than a decade that this is wrong on religious grounds. I've said for almost a decade that this is wrong on religious and other grounds. Actually, even more trye that it's time for Texas Dems to dump the "demographics is destiny" claims? It's time for Texas Democrats to dump Hinojosa.

Per Texas Observer, a Hispanic husband and wife from El Paso, divided on their presidential support, and STRONGLY DIVIDED, even, illustrate just how much demographics is not destiny. 

Speaking of? DosCentavos gives us his take on the Texas Latino vote and how Dems missed an important issue in South Texas. Stace has some good insights.

And, just like state-level Texas Dems (and some in this county) have been talking for years about turning Collin County blue, they still haven't.

That said, I blogged a year ago that state redistricting, especially for state House seats would be "fun" and might well cause internecine GOP infighting. I stand by that. And, in the case of declining population in rural Texas, demographics IS destiny.

Meet José Garza, the new Travis County DA.

Ed Espinoza presents his notes on the election.

Elise Hu recaps her Election Night.

Therese Odell leaned into the Veep comparisons while things were still up in the air.

National

Yesterday, National Review told Trump, Bill Barr and their bullshit lawsuits that "it's over." Period and end of story.

It wasn't "shy Trump voters" skewing polls, but it was (in part) QAnon Trump voters, who in many cases, might also be called "fuck you, pollsters, Trump voters." (I do NOT consider "shy Trump voter" a proper identifier for people like this; rather, it's for a person who, if it were known to their friends that they were voting for Trump, would be ridiculed.) That said, I don't buy this as a total explanation. There weren't THAT many Black and Hispanic QAnoners. 

Per what I said above about Biden in Texas? Nationally, Biden ran lower than Hillary Clinton among both Hispanics AND Blacks. Maybe, per Nikole Hannah Jones of the 1619 Project, it's past time to ditch "Hispanic," which is about as meaningful as "Asian" as an ethnic category. (For that matter, re "African American," where do you fit new or newish Nigerian immigrants who came to America freely vs the descendants of slaves?) More here from Margaret Sullivan, where that Twitter thread link was seen. 

Meanwhile, ConservaDems in Congress are making new noise about moving that old Overton Window further right. That's even though, per Mondoweiss, "Squad" type new Congresscritters won most their races. 

Beyond more states legalizing pot, and California sadly getting snookered by Uber and Lyft and (paid to play?) drivers to pass Prop 22, another measure from California could have national implications in the near future. Voters there passed Prop 24, which toughens California's previous privacy law passed by the state lege and just in effect for one year. It bans data sharing, not just selling, among other things. Plus, companies must provide a clear link on a webpage for people to opt out of data sharing. AND? It creates a state agency to enforce this. I can't imagine that a lot of websites will bifurcate webpages. EFF said this summer it was a mixed bag. I agree on wishing it had opt-in rather than opt-out, but I think their pay-for-privacy worries are overblown.

Beyond drugs, Colorado voters passed a referendum to reintroduce wolves. Reportedly, the occasional Yellowstone wanderer has gotten into NW Colorado already — since confirmed by Colorado Parks and Wildlife — but the referendum calls for an active state reintroduction program like what brought them back to Yellowstone decades ago. I find it interesting that a lot of support came from southwestern Colorado. True, Durango is hippie-blue, but there's also lots of Mormons and lots of oil and gas folks there. Speaking of, and showing that "American Indian" is perhaps not much more monolithic than "Hispanic," the Southern Ute tribe opposed.

Daniel writes an excellent, in-depth piece about the old tu quoque fallacy and related modern whataboutism re the presidential campaign. 

Besides Trump himself and his family? Yes, it will indeed be nicest to say goodbye to Bill Barr.

Some centrist Catholic type, writing in Merika for British paper The Independent, says Biden should pardon Trump. Wrong. Ford's pardon of Nixon, without saying what he was being pardoned for and without publicly confirmed guilt (even if accepting a pardon insinuates that) was itself wrong, and her citing it as a precedent shows how all wet she is. In reality, this just enables bad behavior.

Matt Bai, in the face of Trump's staff egging him on in the votes issue, GOP Congresscritters carefully circumscribing their responses, and right wing puntry egging Trump on even more than his own staff, and ignoring that COVID got Biden elected, laughingly claims "Trumpism has been repudiated." (The latest example for why Bai has faded from punditry prominence.)

Per numbers from Great Lakes states in this National Review piece, Howie Hawkins 2020 finished well behind Jill Stein. Partly not his fault, I'm sure; likely that 2016 Greens had many "safe candidate" Berniecrats who went back to the Dem tribe this year. Hey, the Rhode Island Green Party even gave them an excuse. "Well, if GREENS are saying 'You have to vote Biden,' ..." you get the results pictured in the poll.

And, while the relatively small numbers on the poll on this blog make it anecdotal, it is an anecdotal confirmation.

Non-politics

SocraticGadfly takes his first look at what the St. Louis Cardinals might do and probably will do this offseason.

Traces of Texas has an amazing photo of the Astrodome.

Sara Cress sums up her experience running the super popular Harris County Clerk Twitter feed.

Grits for Breakfast evaluates the state of criminal justice reform after the election.

Texana/national/global

All three, since he's not native to Texas and no country owns Antarctica. Meet Wayne White, the man who has spent three winters at the South Pole as station manager of the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station.

Sustainable farming, at least at the leadership cadre level, is racist.

Top blogging for October

My top 10 blog posts for October contained a mix of old and new, and were fairly heavy on coronavirus news.

But, No. 1 was a "takedown" obituary. I noted that I'll miss James Randi somewhat, but that the only thing "amazing" about him in the last 10-15 years was founders' syndrome, and related issues, while noting the fanbois were glossing over many problematic issues from even before then.

No. 2? This was essentially my 2018 election post-mortem, talking about roseys vs sunflowers, and DSA Dems vs. Greens, on Twitter. Kind of ironic since I decided not to vote this year.

No. 3? An update from a previous post, noting that LeBron is (arguably) No. 1 with Michael Jordan playing 1A, after his first Lakers title, and a title with a third different team.

No. 4? My combo of COVID and politics, spoofing Trump with new lyrics for Blue Öyster Cult's "Don't Fear the Reaper," now known as "Don't Fear the Virus."

No. 5? A roundup of coronavirus-related store boycotts and semi-boycotts.

No. 6? One of my top 10 all time, "Who is Actual Flatticus/Allan Smithee/Chris Chopin," is trending again. He'd mock Biden more than me, were he alive, while heaping scorn on Greens, but for sneering reasons, not principled politics, unlike mine.

No. 7? It was fun as hell to mock Glenn Greenwald after he took his butthurt ass away from The Intercept, and to mock Matt Taibbi and Max Blumenthal as part of the process. I guess other people feel the same.

No. 8? Based on personal experience, confirmed indirectly by the Cooke County Judge and county emergency manager (though a good elected Republican won't blame Gov. Strangeabbott), the "safety protocols" for events in the new normal? Kabuki theater.

No. 9? One specific boycott, at least of the local store — Tom Thumb.

No. 10 is a First Amendment issue. I content that Dallas' city-owned WRR is acting unconstitutionally in broadcasting religious services on Sundays.

Coronavirus, week 32: Texas is No. 1!

• For those who hadn't heard, Texas recently passed California, Florida, New York and elsewhere to lead the nation in coronavirus cases. One hotspot is El Paso, or per Texas Monthly, the binational El Paso-Juarez conurbation. Leaders of both cities blame each other, and on the Yanqui side, it's compounded by the El Paso County Judge wanting a firmer hand on business restrictions in the city of El Paso than does its mayor. El Paso now has four mobile morgues to deal with deaths there.

• Pandemic fatigue is a "global" thing, at least on both sides of the Atlantic among developed nations. I don't know about places like South Korea and Japan. And, we really won't be able to know, outside official narratives, about China. 

• STAT agrees with other projections last week — through the holidays season, we're screwed. Biden's coronavirus task force is a good idea, but like other things, can't start until Jan. 20. And, will have a tough uphill sled on pandemic fatigue, let alone pandemic denialism.

• Speaking of? A representative of a coalition of state health officials says that non-rural folks need to listen more to rural folks — and even, to me, implies that they ought to give credence to their alternative reality.

“Public health officials need to step back, listen to and understand the people who aren’t taking the same stance” on mask-wearing and other control measures, said Dr. Marcus Plescia of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. 

“I think there’s the potential for things to get less charged and divisive,” he said, adding that there’s a chance a retooled public health message might unify Americans around lowering case counts so hospitals won’t get swamped during the winter months.

WRONG, as I said on Twitter. I see this as coming very close to what I said in the paragraph above: an acceptance of an alternative reality of coronavirus minimalism at the least, full denialism at the most. That denialism includes, among Biden vs Trump voters, what percentage of people think COVID is largely or mainly under control, per the story link.

Now, if Plescia meant "re-explain" the current message of #SocialDistance + #WearADamnMask, he needs to say so. But, he did NOT say that in the AP story.

• Airlines MAY be safer than other indoor places, but they may NOT be as safe as many studies so far claim. Here's the latest, with the key point being? Airlines are pushing safety studies that — have been commissioned by airlines, and in the biggest, even conducted by one.

Reading the United survey, which did NOT have its mannequin acting like a WALKING passenger for the john, etc.? That's not very good.

• Pfizer's vaccine is (for now) the closest to public release. It's also the one with the biggest distribution headaches, especially for rural areas. It has to be kept at -100F and the two doses it uses have a 28-day spacing. ProPublica has more details.

Joe Biden should be thanking COVID on his knees

To some dyed-in-the-wool Democrats, it may sound cynical to the point of being perverted.

But, it's not.

Skeptical? Certainly. NOT cynical. It's a skepticism based on facts.

This sobering reminder to Democrats. Had it not been for this tiny virus, thousands of times smaller than a human cell, Donald Trump would be serving a second term. How much that says about the enthusiasm of his base, how much it says about how weak of a candidate Biden was, and how much it says about other things will be pundit-ed out on the Interwebz for months to come.

But the basic fact is true, when one looks at how thin Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan were — if not for COVID, Trump remains president. 

Period and end of story.

That includes that, per this Politico mini-bio piece, if COVID hadn't intervened, Biden's anemic in-person crowds on the Democratic primary trail would have remained anemic — and visible — no matter the interventions of Harry Reid and Dear Leader Barack Obama.

Period and end of story.

When you know that Biden trailed Hillary Clinton among Blacks and Hispanics, and won working-class voters (no, they're not all white, and no, Bernie didn't say that, Sanders haters, but yes, he comes close to implying that at times, Sanders bromancers) by Overton Window shifting, he doesn't win without the coronavirus.

Period and end of story.

It's not the grace of god, as no such critter exists. Nor is it the luck of the Irish, as luck doesn't exist in a metaphorical sense and in a psychological sense, it's based on other legends, recency bias fallacies and more.

Elections 2020 personal post-mortem

PROLOGUE: (And update.) In comments, Tiago asked me, per my graphic, what exactly I meant by a non-Marxist post-capitalism rather than anti-capitalism. 

I can now offer a specific example. I'm not saying I agree with it totally, nor am I saying it's the only post-capitalist option out there, but? "Doughnut economics," as described in this story, are one example, and an example with an explicitly environmental focus. Is it perfect? Of course not? Is it even going to wind up being the best option? As currently formulated, likely no. Is it a good starting point, despite bashing from non-wingnut conservatives to Branko Milanovich on the left? I say yes. Robert Hunziker has his take on doughnut economics at Counterpunch.

And with that, on to the original post.

FIRST MAIN POINT: As I said more briefly in the middle of a couple of blog posts elsewhere late last month?

I didn't vote. I've defended principled non-voting by others for years, and now I'll defend it in my own self.

So, WHY?

In part, semi-technical reasons. I need to renew a piece of plastic, and I hadn't transferred it from a previous address, and the powers that be that oversee such things said I couldn't transfer the address or renew it over the Interwebz, and COVID. I will get it taken care of, but I didn't before the election. But, it also offered me a backup excuse beyond the real reasons.

At the presidential level, it was a mix of national Green Party and Howie Hawkins factor. Both the party's Presidential Candidate Support Committee and Howie's own campaign treasurer, Travis Christal, the former despite MULTIPLE emails, never gave me the so-called "letter of interest" submitted on behalf of Jesse Ventura by who knows who. (I asked Travis as I had his email, and explained I had asked the PCSC multiple times by email and hadn't gotten the time of day. I DID get a "welcome to the Green Party PR type email the first time, which only cheesed me even more.)

And, exactly that is the problem.

I want to know who, given all the shenanigans, and what exactly it said. That's doubly true as we could have another round of this bullshit in 2024. Background on Jesse, the letter of interest, and his desire to have his not-rose-scented ass kissed is here.

Related? The Green Party Facebook group, which is an official Party organ, after all, censored more than one of my would-be posts there, and I was able to prove it. And, I'm not the only person to have had such complaints. (The group is moderated, and favoritism by moderators, beyond censorship, seems to be a problem.)

Third? Not doing anything about the Rhode Island GP for endorsing Biden but threatening to do something to the Georgia GP because of "trans activists." I'm not a GCRF, as I've said before. I'm a GSHF. That is, I'm a gender-skeptical humanist feminist. I don't have a problem calling out misbegotten SJW-ism when it happens, even if I don't agree with all GCRF claims. Somewhat more on that issue, as well as the "trans activist" issue in general, is here. More on how trans activists both inside and outside of the Green Party get a lot of issues of biology wrong is here. And, Howie was at least a "fellow traveler" on all of this.

Fourth? Something I explicitly blogged about, Hawkins, along with top campaign advisors Margaret Flowers and the late Kevin Zeese, drinking the Xi Jinping Kool-Aid. I have long voted Green precisely because of foreign policy as well as domestic policy issues. That said, the U.S. foreign policy establishment isn't always wrong, and it's not wrong by default. Twosiderism that abets concentration camps is simply unacceptable.

Fifth? Yeah, a certain amount of Rethuglicans and Democraps believed some of the coronavirus conspiracy theories, too, but they ran hot and heavy among Greens. Howie himself supported vaccinations, and didn't support any of the conspiracy theories, but? The party needs to be more explicitly pro-science on this (and other badly stereotypical "Green" issues) in the future. Per the graphic at right, I not only vote based on foreign policy issues, I vote based on broad insight issues.

I saw no reason to vote below that level. Greens had two statewide offices for which I could vote. BUT? Reading between the lines of Texas Supreme Court rulings, had either David Bruce Collins or Katja Gruene won, the TSC said that Secretary of State Ruth Hughs could retroactively charge the campaign finance fees. And, would surely make them due immediately. Had Hughs and staff not screwed the pooch on trying to charge GP candidates within the party, before nomination, Collins and Gruene would have been dead in the water legally.

As far as Dems? Hegar left me cold. I had no clue about my CD 13 Dem for Congress. I know a ConservaDem ran against Drew Springer for the state House. And, all county-level races were primary-decided.

SECOND MAIN POINT: OK, now, what did "we" get wrong in the general election?

It wasn't "shy Trump voters" skewing polls, but it was (in part) QAnon Trump voters. That said, I don't buy this as a total explanation. There weren't THAT many Black and Hispanic QAnoners. 

Nationally, Biden ran lower than Hillary Clinton among both Hispanics AND Blacks. Maybe, per Nikole Hannah Jones of the 1619 Project, it's past time to ditch "Hispanic," which is about as meaningful as "Asian" as an ethnic category. (For that matter, re "African American," where do you fit new or newish Nigerian immigrants who came to America freely vs the descendants of slaves?) More here from Margaret Sullivan, where that Twitter thread link was seen.

And, on Texas Hispanics, if it's that they're now voters, just more Trump voters than in the past? Maybe it's MORE than about damn time that Texas Democrats mayordomo Gilberto Hinojosa et al dump the "demographics is destiny" claims, as Mezzcans for Trump has put paid to the old "non-voting state Texas" claims. I've said for almost a decade that this is wrong on religious and other grounds. 

Meanwhile, ConservaDems in Congress are making new noise about moving that old Overton Window further right. That's even though, per Mondoweiss, "Squad" type new Congresscritters won most their races. 

THIRD MAIN POINT: Playing off the first main point, Democrats still don't "own my vote." As of now? Neither do Greens. They may, or may not, regain me, starting with the 2021 convention and what they do or don't do vis-a-vis Rogues Island, the Alaska GP nominating Jesse, and Georgia.

Otherwise? Per a "where are they now" piece in the Dallas Morning News about Metroplex area 1960s civil rights activists, with many of them saying they were civically active, but not politically active to the point of non-voting? I'm OK with staying that way myself.

The GP needs larger reforms to hold on to me. The SPUSA needs to move its nomination to 2024, not 2023, so that it can have a clearer idea of whether or not to have the potential Green nominee also be its candidate.

As for the party?

Per numbers from Great Lakes states in this National Review piece, Howie Hawkins 2020 finished well behind Jill Stein. Partly not his fault, I'm sure; likely that 2016 Greens had many "safe candidate" Berniecrats who went back to the Dem tribe this year. Hey, the Rhode Island Green Party even gave them an excuse. "Well, if GREENS are saying 'You have to vote Biden,' ..." you get the results pictured in the poll.

UPDATE, Nov. 20: Via Ballot-Access News, "others," as in the really minor candidates, outperformed Hawkins, who is listed at less than 400,000 votes. (As of late January, Wikipedia confirms that "others" did outperform him, with more than 600,000 votes. That's not totally new; if you lump McMullin with other "others," Stein lost by about 20 percent in 2016. She lost slightly in 2012.)

And, while the relatively small numbers on the poll on this blog make it anecdotal, it is an anecdotal confirmation.

Partially his fault? Probably. Partially internal GP things outside his control? Almost certainly.