Russia-Ukraine week 10: Realpolitik, Chinese aid and more

Nathan Robinson interviewed Anatol Lieven, who offered a Realpolitik in the good sense view of the Russia-Ukraine war, starting with Team Biden doubling down on poking the Russian bear with the NATO sharp stick. He goes on to talk about the biggie for Russia, Ukraine and the world: what peace could look like, if Biden would just stop his warmongering. Lieven next notes that by saying that not just did the US break promises by expanding NATO, but the Baltic state members broke promises by not protecting ethnic Russian rights. Why WOULD Putin trust either NATO or the US? It's a long read, as is much of Nathan's stuff, but a good one, as is much of his stuff.

It gets better. He notes that France and Germany won't propose a non-NATO membership collective security treaty because they're afraid of the US. Lieven does allow that they might back such a treaty IF Zelensky proposes it, though. (Or, they might not. I'm more dubious.)

Finally, I recommend reading all the sidebar pieces that are at the bottom of the main one. Let me help by linking to two. First, Nathan wonders if Biden really cares about helping Ukraine. Per the Lieven interview, it's a very serious question. Second, he raises the issue of whether Russian atrocities are unique.

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Meanwhile, the Biden Administration, via Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, has made clear it's going to force Russia into default on what remains of its international debt that banksters haven't dumped since the start of the war. Could Russia win a force majeure argument? Color me less skeptical than the AP piece. We have wars going on right now and no nation's been forced into default, so the idea that Russia bought itself this pig in a poke might not fly. Meanwhile, fellators of the bipartisan foreign policy establishment, in my response on Reddit, where I first saw this, or one of them, claims that Putin's a terrorist. I don't see him as such, even if Ukraine hadn't also demonstrably committed war crimes itself. Second, she lied that "we" don't negotiate with terrorists, and I told her that, immediately referencing that both Trump and Biden negotiated with the Taliban.

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Related? Short of NATO intervening to start real negotiations, Grid looks at how a semi-stalemate like we have now might play out over months ahead. The story does have one weakness; it talks about Russian atrocities but not Ukrainian ones. And yes, they exist, folks. See my previous blogging.

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Bloomberg reported last week that China was looking to buy plenty of cheap(ish) Russian oil for its strategic reserve. With the West still refusing to ban Russian oil exports and oil being fungible (as is wheat, etc., as it gets more pricey), the idea of totally crushing Russia economically looks like more and more of a pipe dream.

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Cory Doctorow gives a shitload of reasons why Americans who think about the issue very much should NOT applaud John Deere kill-switching tractors in Ukraine stolen by Russians. And, they should all be paid attention to.

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Brittney Griner is indeed a pawn in Russia-US relations. But, the law is the law, and she's not being "wrongfully detained," contra Status Quo Joe, who once again has his administration not actually want to negotiate anything. Indeed, given US federal marijuana law, if Griner were a Russian (or other non-US) athlete and showed up at JFK Airport with the same alleged baggage, she could be arrested, too. And, Dave Zirin should know better, especially since he's also The Nation's sports editor.

Lemme know when Biden's DEA, FDA etc., deschedule marijuana from Schedule 1 down to Schedule 3 (or lower) as justified by science. Until the, starting with Biden himself, STFU about Greiner's arrest. You're hypocrites.

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The New Statesman talks about Jürgen Habermas' thoughts on German rearmament and other issues related to Ukraine there. I hadn't realized the Germans were suckers enough that much of this rearmament is buying "can't fly half the time" F-35s from the US. Hope they're getting a deep discount. The piece also, as a sidebar, illustrates the "deterioration" of the German Green Party. (I've written elsewhere that they've become more and more not that different from Democratic Party-focused environmentalists here in the US, neoliberal on many issues.)