Shohei Ohtani, like Mike Trout, still must bow before Walter Johnson

Three years ago David Schoenfield tried to claim that Mike Trout was on track for the best season ever. He was wrong and I thoroughly explained why.

But, Schoenfield has moved on. Now he's hinting that Shohei Ohtani might be among the best, and, once again, from what I can see before I hit the ESPN+ paywall (and dreck like this is why I won't pay) he ignores Walter Johnson's GOAT 1913 season. (To be half fair, in 2018, it wasn't just Schoenfield; it was a whole set of ESPN clusterfuckheads.)

So, no, Schoenfield (and shouldn't you be making sure Bishop Syracuse doesn't play in next year's Little League World Series?) Ohtani's year, while in the 10-WAR range if he finishes out, is NOT Babe Ruth. Or Barry Bonds. Or Mike Trout. 

And certainly not Walter Johnson.

And right now, if he DOES finish out, he may not get 10 WAR.

(Update, Oct. 29. He of course was a fair ways short, at 9.0 WAR. And, he must not only bow to Walter Johnson and the Babe, but just within the modern era, Ohtani must bow to Trout, Bonds and seven other players on the batting side alone who had seasons at least 15 percent better than him.)

Because, contra your claims three years ago, Trout wasn't chasing Ruth. Or any of the others, ultimately. He WAS chasing Johnson.

Also, as for the two-way claims? Well, not totally so fast. In his peak, Johnson appeared as a batter in 55 or so games for several years straight. (That said, most those years, he pitched 48 or more games.) Twice he was over 60 games. In 1914, one year after his peak, he had 160 PAs. In 1918, 167. Rounding up a 0.9 year, he had seven straight years of 1.0 or more WAR at the plate. (Johnson also in 1913 tied his career best in batting with a 109 OPS+.)

And, with that said, let's take selected info from that 2018 piece.

Again, Trout was NOT chasing Ruth, namely Ruth's 1923 season, for the best year in baseball history by WAR.

He was not, unless he was trying for second place.

The best year in MLB history is NOT Babe Ruth's 1923. Not at all.

Not even close.

But, who?

It's Johnson's 1913.

Walter Johnson: The
current WAR GOAT

The Big Train had 15.0 WAR on the mound, compared to Ruth's 14.3 at the plate.

Now, somebody will pop up that single-season WAR numbers can vary half a WAR point, so just maybe Ruth is ahead.

Nope.

Johnson also had 1.4 at the plate for 16.4 WAR total.

Now, ESPN Stats and Info had one of their staff snootily tweet back to me when I tweeted this, that it was about position players only.

Well, Schoenfield never said that. (And, this year, he certainly hasn't. At least, he didn't before I hit the paywall screen.)

This dude said "it was implied."

I said "oh really"?

He then said that WAR favored pitchers, especially in the dead ball era.

First, as I've blogged before,1913 was semi-live ball, not totally dead. About all rules had been standardized, homers were up a tick, doubles up two or three ticks, etc.

Second, if you throw out pre-1920 years, as I then told this guy, half of the top WAR years were by batters anyway. (I took top 50 and threw out from there.) One third of post-1910 were, and almost all of the 1910-20 years that stay are Johnson's. Take top 50 and ties I then said "bye!"

Let's look at live ball and semi-live ball pitchers — post-1910, in my take — who are at least in the ballpark of the Babe's year. We'll use 12 WAR, rounded, as the cutoff. That gets us within 20 percent of Ruth, even if well below the Big Train.

Johnson, again, 14.8 in 1912
Dwight Gooden, 13.3 WAR (an under-21 record) in his phenomenal 1985
Pete Alexander, 12.7 in 1920
Walter (Guess Who) Johnson, 12.7 in 1914, part of a phenomenal three-year stretch.
Steve Carlton, 12.5 in 1972
You know Who, 12.5 in 1915, part of a phenomenal four-year stretch
Ed Walsh, 12.2, 1912
Roger Clemens, 12.1, 1997* for you know what.
Hal Newhouser, 12.1, 1945
Bob Gibson, 11.9, 1968
Old Pete, 11.9, 1916
Ferguson Jenkins, 11.9, 1971

Given that Doc Gooden is the only player in the top 20 from the modern era, and Lefty Carlton is the only other modern era player in the top 30, for single-season WAR, per B-Ref, that's how dumb a fuq Schoenfield is. (Carl Yastrzemski, 12.4 WAR in his 1967 Triple Crown year, is the only batter from semi-live ball or full live ball besides Ruth in the top 35, and he's the ONLY modern era player in the top 45. Yep. Ahead of Bonds. Or Trout. THAT is how Dum a Fuq Schonefield is.)

But, back to the first point. Ohtani has yet to make it to 10 WAR. Just cool your jets on how special this is. Right now, with an OPS+ over 150, he's a great batter, sure. Ditto with his ERA+ being over 150. Problem? He's only pitched a skoosh over 100 innings. Not likely to make more than 125. Even in today's baseball world, that's way low.

And, this is just one season. (And, update Sept. 16, if he's possibly going to be shut down for the year on the mound side, it's not even a full season.)

 

Update: Per a comment by Dave below, when comparing Ohtani with Ruth's two-way years, or with the number of at-bats plus innings played as a pitcher for Johnson, let's not forget that Ohtani DH's as an offensive player. He's not playing a fielding position and therefore doesn't have to throw the ball anywhere.