Jane Nelson's retirement and Texas Senate redistricting

While Danny Goeb was praising Jane Nelson on her announcement she wouldn't run again (and ignoring that she served 28 years while initially being elected because she claimed to back term limits), he ignored one other thing.

This might affect redistricting.

Yeah,  the Trib says "Republican-friendly district." But, is it THAT Republican friendly? Look at the map. Southern half of Denton County and NW Tarrant.

Then look at her election results. Yeah, she took 63 percent in 2020. But, that was after consistent 85 percent in previous general elections.

Yeah, with a 2022 election and Biden likely to slip a bit, she might do better. But how much better? And, would she be primaried? And would that paint her into a corner?

Meanwhile, with her gone, other GOP senators may eye parts of her district to make themselves safer.

Drew Springer in 30 is plenty safe. And, he's new so low on the pecking order. So, his district won't have to dip into Nelson's.

Elsewhere? Angela Paxton in 8 is not safe and also has the Sword of Damocles of hubby Kenny hanging over her head.

Kelly Hancock in 9? Not so safe.

Beverly Powell in 10 is a Democrat who edged out incumbent nutbar Konni Burton.

Nathan Johnson in 16 is a Democrat who won more convincingly against incumbent Dreamy Don Huffines.

Assuming Goeb writes off Paxton, does he try to shore up District 12 for a GOP newcomer who won't have the advantage of incumbency, by nibbling from Springer's district? Does he try to do this AND shore up Hancock, and not just for the next election but for the rest of them this decade? Does he instead try to make Powell's district more Republican?

There's lots of moving parts here, plus what I've previously blogged about, how the mix of suburban growth, and that growth tilting slightly Democrat, mixed with some more Republican exurban growth, but flatness and even decline in truly rural areas, especially in West Texas, is going to put some state House, state Senate, and Congressional Republicans at redistricting loggerheads. And, let's also not forget Trumper vs never-Trumper, or maybe, Trumper vs ultra-Trumper, battles. Again, maybe that's part of why Nelson ain't running again.

So, Nelson got out while the getting was good, and getcha popcorn!