Will Greg Abbott get primaried in 2022?

No, I don't think it's totally idle speculation.

Is there a betting line on how soon before Abbott caves to Christofascist Tim Dunn or someone else on the "masks on"? Is there a betting line on Danny Goeb eyeing the idea of primarying Strangeabbott in 2022?

The way Former Fetus Forever Fuckwad and soon to be out of the Lege Jonathan Stickland and Tony Tinder(holt) ripped into him, a cave-in could be right around the corner. (Tinderolt remains an asshole about masks even after getting the corona himself, and overhyping it in the process.) And, if not Goeb, somebody eyeing a run in 2022. Besides, Abbott's order exempts churches and thus does nothing to address the superspreader church issue. I'd like to see Lina Hidalgo or Clay Jenkins say churches are businesses and members are customers, and order churches to mask their members. On the third hand, the megachurch denizens can, as long as they don't come near me, keep on trying to enter this year's Darwin Awards contest all they want. Beyond that, I think local health authorities can close churches as well as schools if necessary, no matter what Kenny Boy Paxton says.

Abbott's already gotten pushback from some wingnut counties, not all of them small. Ellis, Johnson and Upshur counties are among those where county judges said they won't enforce the mask order. A county with less than 20 active cases, Cass County, doesn't have to enforce the order IF it opts out. But, Judge Becky Wilbanks claiming Abbott's orders have been ambiguous? Not this one. His previous "blood on his hands"? Yes. Ellis and Johnson counties are both problematic. Both are over 150K and both are part of the Metromess. (Dunno about Johnson, or cities like Cleburne, but Ennis in Ellis County used to be a hotspot of racism to boot.) Smith County? That's Tyler. Over 200K people in the county, and also, a longtime wingnut hotbed of racism.

Wingnut deluxe Steve Hotze is now in on the fray, as the Trib has a copy of a voicemail he left Abbott's chief of staff over protestors, saying activated Guardsmen needed to "shoot to kill." Per the link and its ties to "Masks On," Hotze's also filed suit over that order.

Following up on the Bar Lives Matter stupidity from a month ago, over Abbott's orders to shutter bars, bar owners are suing the state as well. Dear bar owners, and a substantial minority of patrons. If bar lives really mattered, many of you bar patrons would get your ass to a sobriety meeting and many of you bar owners would tell those who needed to go that they indeed ... needed to go.

Part of the problem of "superspreader churches"? It's superspreader church choirs. And, while I don't think bar owners have a legal leg to stand on, Abbott continuing to exempt churches is hypocritical.

So, the two questions in the second paragraph are related. The sooner Abbott caves on "Masks On," the more likely he is to avoid being primaried. If so, who Dunn and other wingnuts among the Xn Right part of Big Oil decide to back financially will be a big tell.

As far as primarying Abbott? Goeb is over 70 already, and besides, would surely MUCH prefer bitching from the sidelines rather than being on the spot and perhaps on the firing line. I'm sure he's taken note, federally, of Paul Ryan shooting at John Boehner, then bolting the House entirely himself after a relatively short tenure as Speaker. Any of the county judges above? They are all up for re-election in 2022. Doubt any would leave a likely guaranteed nomination, and very good chance of general election win, to take on Abbott. (Ellis County has been 72-75 percent GOP on presidential elections this century; Johnson County 73-77 percent; Smith County 70-72 percent.) Now, if some big-name, among wingnuts, county sheriff said he or she wouldn't enforce the mask order (assuming they're re-elected this year), that would be a possibility, but still remote.

Among state agencies? Nobody's touching "Come to Jesus shot" Sid Miller at Ag. Comptroller Glenn Hegar isn't in East Wingnutistan and is too smart to primary Abbott anyway. Would Pee Bush try to run to the "left" of Abbott? Only if he's wounded enough, and there's already an East Wingnutistaner in the race.

Then there's those currently out of politics. The dreamy former state Sen. Don Huffines is making noises. So is nutbar grifter Shelley Luther. The Trib has more. Would Stickland jump in? Would he be desirable to the wingnuts? As for this trio, I think the men in East Wingnutistan would take a hard pass on Luther as a golddigger type. Note that no wimmen hold elected statewide legislative or executive office and haven't since Hegar replaced Susan Combs. (Had to add the qualifier because of CCA nutbar Sharon Keller. Would SHE be tempted? I just threw up in my mouth.)

Right now, I rate the odds of Abbott being primaried at 2-1 against. Yes, people are making noises, but we're a long ways off. Another issue to watch before we horserace this more is this year's Lege election. If Dems get enough suburban votes to break their way to retake the House, then the Freedom Fries folks will likely try to drive the state GOP even harder into the right hand ditch. If Dems gain, but don't take control, first-ring suburban and central city Republicans will look like Rockefeller Republicans, and will have to figure out "do I stay or do I go now?"