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November 04, 2019

The real single-season home run record holder is ???

If you're like me, you don't want to give it to either Barry Bonds or Mark McGwire before him cuz roids. Third in line is Sammy Sosa, and scratch him, too, of course.

So, Roger Maris?

First, for those of you who say "greenies" back then, I've said more than once that IMO they didn't have the same effect as steroids or HGH, especially when you compare a bowl of pills in a locker room vs Bonds' scientific support.

Second, I simply don't picture Maris doing that.

So, Maris? Asterisk of Ford Frick or not?

But, but, but ...

He, like Ruth before him, played on that short porch in Yankee Stadium's right field.

So ....

A sabermetric, drug-free home run record holder?

Let's change that to ... sabermetric, drug-free, expansion free.

Per a commenter below, and my own check on splits, not only in 1961, but basically not at all during his seven years in pinstripes, did Maris have any notable advantage, including not at all in 1961.

BUT? 1961 was an expansion year, and, as with later expansions, it benefited batters at pitchers' expense, in general.

Maybe Hank Greenberg and his 58 in 1938. Briggs (Tiger) Stadium back then, as until it was torn down early this century, was a barn. I couldn't find park factors back quite that far, but Baseball Prospectus goes back to 1950. (If you're a stathead, bookmark that.) And, it consistently shows it was a barn, and though not going just on homeruns, but presumably connected to that, has 1B, 2B and 3B factors. Remember Greenberg was a rightly. 3B factors generally are the worst looking, as far as the batter side of the equation, in old Tiger.

Add in the rumor, at least, that Greenberg got a lot of intentional walks late in the year because of racism, as in nobody wanted "that Jew" breaking Ruth's record, even as Hitler was expanding his power and virulence.

And a tidbit: Jimmie Foxx with a higher BA led Greenberg on OPS and OPS+.

It's worth remembering there that Greenberg actually enlisted in 1941, and missed all of three years plus most of a fourth. Ted Williams, of course, missed five years from two wars, and Bob Feller missed three-plus, almost as much as Greenberg. Had Hank gotten all his years in, he surely would have been in the top 10 in 1B JAWS. I'm sure he'd be behind Lou Gehrig and Albert Pujols, and probably Foxx, but, oh, right about at Cap Anson and above Jeff Bagwell? Yes.

A-Rod, of course, also had 58 one year with the Mariners, but see above.

On the other hand, Briggs was NOT a barn for Greenberg. Check my comment below.

So, is it Giancarlo Stanton?

First, I think he's clean, so no Bonds-type asterisks. Second, 2017 Miami's Marlins Park was almost as much a barn as Tiger Stadium. Third, unlike Greenberg, Stanton played in the post-integration era, plus (and this swings both ways) night baseball, and coast-to--coast travel (which probably affects position players more than pitchers).

And, 59 homers tops 58, setting aside Greenberg's intentional walks.

On the other hand? In both 2017 and his second best year, 2014, he, like Greenberg, hit more at home despite being in a pitcher-friendly park.

Note on that: MLB didn't track intentional walks at that time. That said, Greenberg had a career high of 119 total walks. Stanton had 13 IBBs and 98 total in 2017.

3 comments:

  1. maris hit 61 home runs, 30 at Yankee stadium and 31 on the road. no overwhelming home field advantage in his 61.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Maris hit 61 home runs, 30 at Yankee stadium and 31 on the road. No home field advantage . Problem here as with most baseball stats is that there is no uniform playing field. All baseball fields have different dimensions, except for the infield. Even the foul area is different . A foul ball pop fly is caught in one ballpark but could wind up in the stands in another ballpark, etc. Long fly balls to the outfield hit a wall in one ballpark but clear a wall in another ballpark.

    The debate goes on. I vote for Hank Aaron as all time HR leader. Individual season HR leader is more difficult to analyze.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Unknown: Overall, in 5 of 7 Yankee years, he was equal or better on the road. Interesting.

    AND? Greenberg was 39/19 home vs road despite being in the Briggs Stadium barn. Didn't think to check their splits.

    ReplyDelete

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