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November 06, 2019

MLB Veterans: Who deserves the Hall, who doesn't

The "Veterans Committee" (I still call it that) has released 10 nominees for the Hall of Fame for their nomination ballot. It takes 75 percent of the 16 members to get them in.

So, here's my take on who should and should not get in.

Note: Here's the 16 committee members who will vote Dec. 7 on this year's veterans' class.

Lou Whitaker is a no-brainer. BBWAA is criminal for not only not voting him in, but far worse, dropping him off the ballot after one year, not hitting the 5 percent. Criminal. And yet, the highly overrated Jon Heyman still can't support him.

Whitaker's one problem was "no peak." One 5WAR and one 6WAR year side by side, then a 5 and a 6 in two out of three years — seven years later. But 75 career WAR and 13th on 2B Jaws. He was somewhat of a compiler, no doubt about that. But he had so many solid years that at some point, "compiler" moves into Hall of Fame territory.

Dwight Evans is a tough borderline case. I'm OK with him being elected. I'm OK with him not being elected. Dewey,  like Sweet Lou, didn't have much of a peak. He also, myths aside, was a negative dWAR on his career. 67 WAR, 15th in RF Jaws.

Thurman Munson, not Ted Simmons (and I'm a Cards fan) is the best Hall-eligible catcher not already in. We forget that Munson died at just age 32. He'd likely be at 55 WAR to Ted's 50 had he played out the rest of a normal career. BBWAA is also criminal for not voting him in. (55 WAR would put him above the average of catchers already in the Hall and that high, and assuming his actual seven year peak as is, his JAWS would also go above Hall average. Had he played out that way, he'd have a JAWS of 46, in the top 10 for catchers, even if you count Mauer's entire career as a catcher.) In his case, unlike Sweet Lou's, I know why. It was his cantankerous relationship with New York media. But, rounding up 4.9WAR to 5, he had 4 5WAR or better years in five seasons, including a 7-WAR year, rare for catchers. Ted? Like Dewey in RF, he's my "cutoff standard" for the Hall. Among drawbacks is being a bit of a "compiler" with less than 20 career WAA.

Dale Murphy is not a HOFer. Been down this road before, Tomahawk Choppers. Less than 50 WAR, and 16 WAA. As for his back-to-back MVPs the fanbois tout? In 1982, he was essentially tied for fourth in WAR. In 1983, he was essentially in a six-way tie for first.

And, not counting alleged roiders and those not yet eligible? Here's two other non-HOFers who have won two MVPs:
Juan Gonzales
Roger Maris
That said, Juan Gone was totally undeserving both times.
Maris even won back to back, like the Murph. Maris, though, was outright first in his first win, in 1960. He and Juan Gone are both around 40 WAR. Less than 10 WAR behind the Murph.

And, one of the Fansided nutters (and worse, Fanbois in comments) drinks and pours the Kool-Aid big time.

Dave Parker? Loved booing the Cobra in his Pirates heyday from the RF bleachers at old Busch. Not a HOFer. Lower than Murphy.

But not MUCH lower. As I noted in going down the Murph road before, if you blind boxed both their stats, you'd think one was the other.

Tommy John? A compiler. A pioneer with the surgery but not a HOFer as a player. Below 25 WAA. Kind of like Jim Kaat, but a better compiler.

Steve Garvey and Don Mattingly? No. Sorry for Donnie Baseball's back problems, but his career as stands? No. Garvey? He's the most overrated Dodger 1B since Gil Hodges, though Steve might deserve entry into other halls, wink wink. Sadly, this is one of Bill James' biggest wrongs.

Marvin Miller? Hellz yes, but as in past elections, he may be blackballed.

==

That said, with a previous VC electing Friend of Tony named Harold Baines, and Jack Morris, to the Hall? Who knows who will get in. And who knows if La Russa isn't going to be a new Frankie Frisch of the Veterans Committee on this.

2 comments:

  1. Hodges overrated? From ‘49 to ‘56, Dodgers won 5 pennants, Hodges averaged 32 HR, 108 RBI, hit .285 and slugged .515. I’d say he produced pretty well. Only reason he doesn’t get acclaim is Snyder, Campanella and Robinson all were there too. Then as manager, led the ‘69 Mets to the greatest WS upset ever- who else ever thought of having a spare ball in the dugout with shoe polish on it? If Lou Whitaker and Dwight Evans qualify, Hodges should have been in long ago.

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  2. Several notes to Gary.

    First, I was talking ONLY about Hodges as a player. More in a minute.

    Second? Hodges as a manager? Caught lightning in a bottle in 1969, playing 8 games above Pythagorean W-L. The other three years he managed? They were meh. Before that? He sucked with the Senators for five years. True, they were an expansion team, but still.

    Third, back to Hodges as a player. In that 1949-56, once he managed to break 6 WAR and twice 5 WAR. Two 4-WAR seasons, but also three 3-WAR seasons. That's why this thing called "sabermetrics" exists. And, it's not just sabermetric hindsight. During that time, he was never in the top 5 in MVP voting, and he was only in the top 10 twice.

    Back to sabermetrics, Gary 44.8 career WAR. Especially at 1B, less than 70 WAR doesn't even come close to sniffing the Hall. WAA? He looks worse there at 13.7. Any player whose WAA is less than half of WAR isn't that good.

    Bye, Gary. And, yes, you should make it "bye." Because I haven't dropped all the sabermetric reasons yet why Hodges is nowhere close to a HOFer.

    ReplyDelete

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