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February 22, 2019

#TakeAKnee, take a settlement for Colin Kaepernick:
Will Kaepernick return to the NFL and is he worth it?
If so, how will he be received by players, coaches, owners?
If not, does he form his own advocacy foundation?
And how many capitalists will keep wanting a piece of him?

Former 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick and co-plaintiff Eric Reid have settled with the NFL last week on their lawsuit related to their Take A Knee stance, begun by Kaepernick, of kneeling during the National Anthem as a quietistic protest against police brutality and in support of Black Lives Matter.

Three main questions, and sidebar observations related to all of them.

First, will he come back?

Well, if Kaep got a bunch of money, he doesn't have to, of course. (We don't know how much he got, or other issues; that's going to be the other sidebar observation, below.) Would he want to?

And, rumor mill has it that "Kaep got his."

William Rhoden says the pair allegedly got $60-80 million. So, $15 million for Reid and $45-$65 million for Kaep?

Update, March 21: Via Red Satan which "shockingly" provides no link, the Wall Street Journal says Rhoden was way the hell wrong and Kaep and Reid combined got no more than $10 million.

Kaep has two years of not taking shots from defensive ends and linebackers. He might enjoy staying pain-free.

Or, he might say that, rather than being rusty, he's fresh. With the league doubling down again on mobile QBs like Lamar Jackson, he should be hired.

So, how would you rank him against current QBs?

My take, based on a mix of:
1. Overall QB physical skills
2. Overall QB athleticism
3. Overall QB decision making and leadership

AND ... based on where Kaep was at when he was last active —

I rank clearly ahead of him
1. Tom Brady
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Russell Wilson
5. Patrick Mahomes
6. Drew Brees
7. Andrew Luck
8. Cam Newton

Four of those eight are fairly long in the tooth, of course. A couple are very long.

In the "at least even," even with just a few years or even one, I'll put:
1. Baker Mayfield
2. Deshaun Watson
3. Dak Prescott
4. Jared Goff

Right now, at least, Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr need not apply as being "at least even." That's mainly due to injuries. None of Mayfield's rookie peers guarantee ahead of Kaep.

So, if you're looking more than one year out, NFL teams? Scratching Brady and Brees for sure, only about one-third of the league's QBs are guaranteed as good or better, in my book.

In addition, he was recently not too washed up for Arena Football 2.0 to be interested. So? John Elway can stop being a hypocrite and trading for POS quarterbacks like Joe Flacco. (That goes for other GMs too, of course.)

Will any teams actually take him? Nut-cutting time on odds says 10-1 against. After all, he just settled his lawsuit with the league. It, and its member teams, are now legally in the clear. If you're an owner and/or GM, you have to think Kaep gives you a clear boost, is not rusty, and, on the owner side, won't drive fans or local ad dollars away. Flip side is? If he DID get decent money from the league, you could do like the new arena folks and offer him a pretty low salary.

And, flip side on owners is?

Let's be honest. Half or so of current QBs, all under contract, are at least roughly equal. And, if Kaep really wanted $20 million from the Alliance of American Football for arena games, he won't come cheap for the NFL.

Were I an actual GM, and I run one of the teams that does not have a QB mentioned above, or one of the unmentioned rookie first-rounders from last year besides Mayfield? Kaep would get $2 million non-guaranteed and a $500K signing bonus. I would include one or two option years — player options — to give him some additional assurance of job security.

Look at Kaep's actual sabermetrics, per the list of QBs above and other things. Only once, in a full season, did he pop a Quarterback Rating of above 100. For comparison, Mahomes was at 113.8. Wilson, in their almost totally overlapping history through 2016, regularly rated higher. And didn't have injury problems. Remember, Kaep had a history of taking unnecessary hits when he ran the ball.

So, that's part 1.

Kaepernick has been, beyond his Black Lives Matter activism, a nice sledgehammer to beat over the head of Roger Goodell, more curmudgeonly members of the NFL ownership club and MAGA hat wearing fans. But, is he "all that" as a QB? Well, maybe he never was. Better than Flacco but behind DangeRuss. About midway between the two, in fact.

At the same time? The Redscum, also, per their owner, and the issue about the mascot possibly being racist, who could also be called the Snyder Hymies, signed Mark Sanchez to replace Alex Smith after his broken leg. Then signed Josh Johnson to replace him. Kaep is better than either and would also buff up Dan Snyder's rep.

But, even then, he ain't getting $20 million, or close. He can compromise, like Andre Dawson with the Cubs long ago. Or not.

So, while Kaep's legal mouthpiece Mark Geragos claimed a week ago that Kaep likely would be signed within two weeks of then, we're halfway through and counting. As I said on Twitter a week ago:
And I stand by that.

Of course, Geragos has plenty of new troubles to worry about.

As of March 25, he is reportedly an unindicted co-conspirator in the alleged scheme by Michael Avenatti to shake down Nike. Given that Geragos' other clients past and present include(d) Jussie Smollett, Michael Jackson, Winona Ryder, Gary Condit and Scott Peterson, the idea that he would be PR-heavy and truth-light on Kaep's future with the NFL should be totally unsurprising.

I clearly won't be eating either his hat or mine.

Let's also not forget that Kaep agreed to a contract restructuring and bet on himself as a player, outside of #TakeAKnee. That gives a heads-up to The Undefeated's Bomani Jones, talking about Kaep's sacrifices.

In other words?

Per old friend Idries Shah ... "there are more than two sides."

That's clear here. We don't know what financial discussions were held when Kaep worked out with teams in the past two years and many other things. And, in the spirit if not the letter of the NDA, we may never know.

But, none of us should be shocked that Nike has just put out a Kaep memorial jersey.

"We believe Colin Kaepernick is one of the most inspirational athletes of his generation biggest gravy trains available for us to foist this $150 ripoff on inner-city youth," said an unidentified Nike spox.

Said spox also did not mention the country or sweatshop of origin of this new jersey.

Part 2? If he did come back, how would he be received?

The non-disclosure agreement does disappoint me. It's almost like Wilson throwing an INT at the 1-yard line rather than handing off to Marshawn Lynch after marching downfield on principle.

And, it does uh, off-put me a bit. As a journalist, if I had a lawsuit, and I got into settlement talks, on principle related to the spirt of the First Amendment, I wouldn't sign a non-disclosure agreement. They could bid me down to five bucks plus my lawyers' fees.

And, his own cause involves the First Amendment. As a unionized employee, he has free speech workplace rights that many of us don't. And, as a unionized employee, he also has freedom of assembly workplace rights many of us don't.

Basically, with Kaep, I want to know what, if anything, besides money (beyond the NFL covering his legal fees) is involved. 

I wonder above all how fellow players would receive him. And, not those who think he was disrespectful nearly as much as those who were most supportive.

If Kaep is really tight-lipped on his NDA, what do these other players think he won for them? They wouldn't know. And, on social media at least, leading up to this point, Kaep has been tight-lipped.

Reality, as Red Satan also noted about the settlement, is that this was a lose-lose if it went to discovery. The league would have to show the general public just how much money it makes. For Kaep? The league-players collective bargaining agreement makes it VERY tough to prove collusion.

The NFL, as those publicly opened books would have shown, has plenty of money for Kaep to be silent. And, enough to comfort Reid along with his new contract. Since neither was actually represented by the NFLPA or part of a Players Association action, I doubt either one got anything besides money. That gets back to my material in italics, and why this settlement has an NDA, and why Kaep as well as Goodell might like that.

I doubt that Kaep got Goodell to sign off on anything non-monetary, like an informal agreement to rein in the worst owners, like Jethro Jerry Jones, should Reid, or other players, want to carry on some sort of protest movement.

So, The Undefeated claiming "Kaep won"? Really? How do you know? Ditto for Jemele Hill, now at The Atlantic. And, neither of you talk about whether Kaep's allies still in the league won or not.

Part 3? What happens if he has taken his last knee in the NFL?

Kaep is smart, organized, and likeable. Founding and leading some sort of advocacy group seems likely. That said, is The Undefeated right in saying he doesn't need the NFL any more?

Who knows.

In part, it would depend on how much he could get NFL players who have supported him to continue to do so. Related to that, it would also in part depend on how much players may continue Kaepernick-type stances on game day. And THAT depends on if Kaep tried to get any formal, or informal, protections for other players. We know the Jethro Jerry Jones type owners will surely be sharpening their knives now, especially if Kaep (and Reid) didn't get any agreement, even one not in writing, from the league.

Related to that, would Kaep work for the NFL Players Association? Would it want him? Probably not, if it could avoid publicly saying so.

The Undefeated compares him to Ali. But  ... that's not even close.

Ali went to court, went to criminal trial, and eventually won. And then, got back in the ring. Kaepernick had a civil case that never went to trial. And, assuming he does indeed never play another down in the NFL, whatever platform — or the possibility of one — that he had — is now gone.

Rhoden, at his above link, which is like these other stories at The Undefeated, ends by undercutting the other Undefeated piece on the Ali angle. He also raises the issues of Kaep's legacy and his future. I don't think he's a "sellout" for taking NFL money. I do think he approaches being one if he got NOTHING BUT money, per what I said above.

It's possible we may see a continued blazing trail for Kaepernick.

It's also possible that, within a generation, and maybe less, or even just a decade, Red Satan might be writing a "where are they now?" piece about him. After all, nobody knows today much about the current activities of Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf. True that David Stern did suspend him a game, then reach a truce on what he could do. Nonetheless, while he wasn't as great a player, relatively speaking, as Kaep, he wasn't a scrubeenee, either. He did say three years ago, re the start of Kaep's movement, that he had no regrets about what he did. But, what visibility level does he have today? Not a lot.

And, otherwise?

The Dead Zone is half right. Stern did suspend him, as linked above, and then put restrictions on him. BUT, owners didn't chase him out of the league. Instead, he lost his shooting touch, especially on the 3-ball, and worse, as a point guard, lost his playmaking ability. And, it was not just because the Kings played him less after his trade from the Nuggets. His per-36, percentages, other stuff? Generally all went down.

Finally, I "get" The Undefeated pumping the news angle on this — even with the amount of wrong in multiple stories.

I get it pumping this for the reason of Kaep's cause. And, per Kaep getting money but probably nothing else, I get Red Satan's limping stepchild pumping this for pageviews and Benjamins.

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