Forty days and counting

Thursday was Dallas’ 40th day at or over the 100-degree mark this year.

While that’s not Phoenix, let alone Palm Springs or Death Valley, it’s not a dry heat here, either. We’re already at the ninth-hottest summer on record, going by 100-degree days; with the century mark forecast through this weekend, we’ll surely be at least No. 8 soon.

(The killer summer of 1980 stands No. 1, with 69 100-degree days; 1998 is second, with 56 days.)

Meanwhile, despite having humidity here, we haven’t had rain. North Texas is in one of its worst short-to-medium-term droughts ever. In the short term, 12 of the last 14 months, if I am estimating accurately, have been below normal, and most of them well below normal. At the same time, we’ve had the all time hottest September last year and the all-time hottest April this year.

I think some of this is cyclical; Texas had a bad drought in the 1950s, though not as much in the way of heat problems. However, might some elements of global warming be exacerbating this? Certainly.

Global warming models for the southern plains area predicts generally drier climate as longer-term warming sets in. So, you recent Sun Belt moves, you might want to get your company to transfer you back to Cincinnati or St. Louis.

Update, Aug. 25: Today was Day 41, putting us at No. 7 on the hottest summers of record. We are supposed to have one more 100-degree day Saturday, probably one on Sunday, and then cool off to near-normal (about 94) for several days. After five-six days, the future of Tropical Storm (and hurricane-to-be) Ernesto, depending on where in the Gulf it makes landfall, will have a serious impact, possibly alleviating the drought.

Of course, it could go futher east than Texas. And, if it hits Category 3, well, that could be RIP for New Orleans.