What wins will Texas Dems actually get?

From last week, on Texas Public Radio, Mark Jones of Rice, who's in most Texas political reporters' Rolodexes, weighs in. 

First, Talafreako:

Mark Jones of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, who coauthored the report, said Talarico's performance is the strongest late-campaign performance he's seen from a Texas Democrat in decades. 

"Even in 2018, [Democratic nominee and then-U.S. Rep.] Beto O'Rourke was trailing [Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz] in virtually every poll at this point in the race," Jones said. "In contrast, in most polls being done, Talarico has an advantage. Sometimes it’s as small as two [percentage points], like in this poll, or one. In a few, it’s as high as three or four, but it’s rare to find a poll that’s not linked to some party or some organization which is at least implicitly or explicitly towards Ken Paxton that has Paxton up." 

While the survey shows 98% of likely Democratic voters planning to vote for Talarico, only 88% of likely Republican voters said they plan to vote for Paxton. Six percent of Republican voters said they plan to vote for Talarico, compared to 1% of Democratic voters who plan to vote for Paxton.

I agree. For a full month now, Talarico has never trailed, and in most cases has had a polling lead at or outside the margin of error, as is the case in the UH/Hobby poll cited in the piece. Barring something extremely weird, I would say Kenny Boy Paxton is semi-toast. I won't go as far as Kuff and say this race is baked in, but it is semi-baked. 

Jones talked to Newsweek last week as well, this about Libertarian Ted Brown's presence in the race. Jones and Mark Rottinghaus note that he's a refuge for Republicans wanting to not vote Paxton but also not undervote. That said, even though Jones said polling shows about half of Brown's supporters are Republican and about half are the mythical "independents," and very few are Democrats, Brown claims Talarico supporters as well as Paxton backers have been pushing him to step aside.

They're not "vote Talarico" ads, but I have heard "don't vote Paxton" ads even on country music stations.

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Next, a briefer thought from Jones on most other statewide races:

"I think the only unknown for Republicans is will they be able to ensure that their voters actually turn out to the vote [this] cycle," Jones said. "And to the extent to which Republicans vote instead of staying home, Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, [state Sen. and Attorney General candidate] Mayes Middleton, [state Comptroller] Don Huffines, and others should be in good shape, although they may be sweating a bit until midnight passes and they see where most of the early vote and Election Day vote has been cast."

Semi-agreed. Dannie Goeb has claimed to be semi-sweating, but is he really? I don't totally agree with Jones on the gov's race, as, even though most polls have had Strangeabbott ahead, in his case, that's often been INside the margin of error.

He's probably got more sweating to do than any other Tex-ass statewide candidate, with one exception.

Step on up, Bo French:

The one other potential trouble spot Jones sees for Republicans is in the race for Texas Railroad Commissioner. Republican nominee Bo French has been embroiled in multiple scandals over social media posts over the past year and a half — the most recent being a screenshot of students of color at a University of Texas football game, which he claimed was evidence that "foreigners" were displacing Americans. 

The new survey shows French leading his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Jon Rosenthal, by 45% to 43%, with Libertarian Arthur DiBianca at 2% and 10% of voters still unsure who they'll support. 

"We do know that the more people learn about Bo French, the less they like Bo French," Jones said. "But if more than half of voters don’t know who Bo French is, that’s good for both French and bad for Jon Rosenthal, who by comparison also is not at all well-known, with close to three out of four likely voters having no idea who Rosenthal is."

Agreed there. Rosenthal has lamented the lack of money in his campaign coffers. (That said, he got about 75 percent as much as French in the third quarter, the Trib says.) Other than money, the biggest thing that would help him? Talafreako co-campaigning at several events. Or, especially in metropolitan areas, Jasmine Crockett hitting a couple of his events. But time is running out.

I have looked at the Ag Commish and RRC races last week. I've written plenty about the Senate race and a fair amount about the governor's tilt.

In the Lege, I'll give Texas Dems eight House pickups, maybe 10 at the outside. I'll still eat my hat if they win a dozen, contra a dumb Trib article that I wrote about a while back. I'll eat Kendall Scudder's hat and say he's not all bad, contra my most recent of many takes otherwise, if they take control of the House. 

Per this decent-sounding prognosticator recommended by CD Hooks at Texas Monthly, as of last Tuesday, it appeared EV was giving Democrats a strong edge, especially as rural voting trailed previous elections. 

I may do a second update of this on pre-Election Day Monday, or may not. 

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Anyway, I'll give you some percentages.

Talafreako is more than odds on.

Hinojosa is about 30 percent, and Goodwin about 20 percent.

If either or both lose by less than 2 percentage points, as I said on Wednesday, part of the blame will either be on them for not trying to land joint campaign appearances with Talafreako or else on him for dismissing those attempts.

Otherwise?

First, pollsters claim they are adjusting for MAGAts deliberately spoiling polls. Are they adjusting enough?

Second, it's more than a cliche or stereotype. Tex-ass is a low-voting state until proven otherwise, and that helps Rethuglicans.

Third, despite somewhat "wired" rural Republicans like Suzanne Bellsnyder hinting that it's OK to vote Democrat (while having one hand on the bible and the other on the Constitution of course!) many rural voters are still locked in to pulling the R lever, metaphorically speaking since we don't have straight-ticket voting any more. Some may undervote Paxton, but that's it.

Fourth, Strangeabbott has shown he has no problem passing out empty promises like Halloween candy, such as his vacuous "audits" of and "pause" on data centers and his "pause" on Flock grants. Indeed, the Observer notes that the state has continued permitting data centers even after his pause, and then lying about it.

Fifth, for the rurales, Trump has shown that, via Brookie Rollins at USDA, and trying to get some of Putin's diesel, he's ready to pass out all sorts of ag bribery — even as he pisses off ranchers with his imported beef orders and rounding up alleged Ill Eagles at feedlots and meatpacking plants. 

 

Texas Progressives look at some non-election stuff

 One-time alleged fraudster Kenny Boy Paxton and his eventually-to-be ex-wife, Tammy Wynette, contributed $600,000 to a convicted fraudster through the typical politician's trust that isn't really blind. 

The biggest lie you'll hear from any Tex-ass politician is one that Dannie Goeb has been pushing hard for years — the claim that there is no such thing as separation of church and state. Per the Monthly's piece, it's like, even more than Karl Marx, he sees secularists and atheists lurking under every bush and behind every tree in Texas, as well as actually believing that Merikkka is legally and constitutionally, not just sociologically (at least now) a "Christian nation." Related, from the same piece, and indirectly, is his second-biggest lie, that he really cares about rural Texas, when in reality, his talk about "government-run schools" show he's as big of a voucher enthusiast as Strangeabbott. I am breaking out the Christian nationalism stuff for a separate piece.

Just fucking shoot me, or run over me with 2,000 mules, even more, if the Observer is right about wingnut deluxe Brandon Gill being the future of Texas MAGAts. Of course, there's the hypocrisy behind this, that Gill doesn't hate on his immigrant father-in-law.

Student Ana Mota is suing Grand Prairie ISD. Why? The district, saying it was guided by the anti-transgender and transsexual SB 12 in denying her the lead role in "Little Shop of Horrors," which is normally male.

Texas Progressives tea leaves on the election

Rural Republicans fed up with threats from data centers may indeed sway the midterms. Or they may not. First, the rural part of the state's population continues to shrink. Second, we have no guarantee that these vote concerns will cause a flip. After all, last year, an unincorporated area in Hood County, about bitching about AI noise, voted down an incorporation referendum, the one and only way they could have taken more control. Finally, it's a sad day when Byron Cook is called a "moderate Republican." Finally, finally, I'm not taking the Trib's poll.

The Monthly has its own piece on how Gina Hinojosa has pivoted to making data centers a key part of her attempt to unseat Strangeabbott, and how she's trying to walk around social issues. Per how it ends its piece, we'll see how many flip. My impression on such issues in general is that many people claim they're going to flip and don't, thinking and hoping that making a certain comment to an interviewer or staking a certain position in a poll will "send a message" to a politician strong enough that they'll moderate. Answer? They won't. 

In addition, the Observer notes that the state has continued permitting data centers even after his pause, and then lying about it. 

Off the Kuff reviewed the Q3 campaign finance reports for Senate and Congress in Texas. 

SocraticGadfly detailed how Ken Klippenstein has become a Pander Bear, with little recent actual investigative reporting.

Talarico, riffing on what I said Elmo Musk missed in his direct-mail fliers, is going all in on a final theme of "Friday Night Lights." Why? Per the Monthly, a lot of its viewers were 18-to-49 upper-middle-class women, the type of women that, especially if they're from suburban or exurban areas, Talafreako needs.

As some of them, especially on the Democrat side, are running for higher office, it's interesting to read the Trib's rating of Legiscritters by key votes. And, on the Dem side in the House? Talafreako, six genders aside, is about dead center. 

Speaking of ratings, the Observer looks at all the statewide Dems taking a pass on abortion and reproductive choice issues.

 Gwen Howerton dunks on Matthew McConaughey's dumb ideas about "independence" and wonders of this is "Peak McConaughey." (Let's hope so and that he goes away.)

Neil at Houston Democracy Project Blog reports young Saudi Arabian man asked John Cornyn Houston Office Protest if they’d get in trouble for sign critical of Trump. The reply was the 1st Amendment is our permit. Let’s maintain & expand our rights with both the vote & protest.  

Democracy Docket highlights the US Attorney for the Southern District of Texas making over the top threats against "illegal voting".

The Current recounts the trouble Gina Hinojosa's mom went through to cast her early ballot.  

Law Dork covers the ongoing Trumpian obsession with the East Potomac Golf Course. 

"Look for, the no-Israel label"

Per the old ILGWU label:

"Look for the no-Israel label" is an important part of BDS. 

That, in turn, is an important part of anti-Zionism in general.

That, in turn, is an important part of my voting, and since we're in election season, it's good to state that now. (It's part of why I undervoted Talarico, per the Gadfly slate.)

Since I already know from Yasha Levine, with him then building further on that earlier work, to avoid the Resnicks' "Wonderful" pistachios, plus, for this and environmental reasons, also POM Wonderful pomegranate juice and Fiji water, and to avoid Ben & Jerry's ice cream because Unilever, checking the back of bottles of olive oil for country of origin to make sure I'm not knowingly getting stuff from Israel is the No. 1 way in the world of foodstuffs BDS comes into play for me.

(And, yes, part of BDS is boycotting US companies that are supporters of Zionism. That means not flying Southworst Airlines, in addition to their Paul Singer enshittification.)

Anyway, beyond olives from Spain and Tunisia, if only I could get olive oil from Palestine.

Sadly, Israel's Zionist thugs do everything they can to prevent West Bank Palestinians from harvesting their own trees. And journalists from reporting on that. But US Congressional candidate Brad Lander continues to fight.

And, here's a new one: An Israeli company is getting into the world of lab meat in the northeastern US. 

Meanwhile, AIPAC won't admit WHY it's doing this, but it's ending candidate endorsements. It's probably afraid that, as it gets its ass kicked more and more, it looks more and more like a 98-pound weakling. 

Where are the joint campaign appearances?

This is something that has puzzled me for some time.

I know multiple candidates appearing together in general, other than a president on the stage with a gubernatorial or senatorial candidate, is something that's faded for some time.

Nonetheless, here in Tex-ass, I have for 10 days or more pondered ever more strongly why it hasn't returned.

On the GOP side, for the top three candidates, I get it. Strangeabbott and Dannie Goeb aren't 100 percent best buddies, and neither needs the other's help, or shoudn't, and wouldn't admit it if they did. And, despite that they haven't kicked him under the curb, neither wants to appear with Kenny Boy Paxton, I'm sure.

For downballot statewide GOP races, I'm sure the big two figure their help isn't needed in most races, and despite neither one repudiating RRC racist candidate Bo French, neither one wants to be with him in person, if they can, before the finish line.

I'm primarily thinking of the Democrat side.

James Talarico is in my book still odds-on to beat Paxton. But, Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin still have uphill sledding vs Strangeabbott and Goeb, respectively.

Have they asked Talarico to make joint appearances with him? If so, so far at least, it looks like he's declined. Given a Trib piece yesterday about the prevalence of ticket-splitting possible in Collin County (even in ruraldom, I've seen more generic "vote Republican" signs than ones explicitly for Paxton, and as many of the "vote Republican" ones as ones specifically for Strangeabbott), I'll venture either Talarico has been formally asked and said no, lower level staffers have been asked and have had a "we'll get back in touch with you" response, or he's had subtle advance hinting that he's too busy. On the other hand, some ticket-splitters said they're voting for other statewide Democrats while still voting Republican locally and regionally.

And downballot candidates would surely welcome his help, especially French's opponent, Joe Rosenthal.

They might also welcome the chance for joint fundraising at joint campaign appearances. Rosenthal in particular has complained about lacking name recognition against French, in part due to lack of money.

So, any Democrats that lose by less than 2 percentage points?

I'm not saying the blame will be entirely his, but you will know who to give part of the blame. 

Trib analyzes duopoly's ad priorities

Here's the details:

A Blast analysis of campaign advertising data from AdImpact shows that, of the $359 million Republicans have spent in Texas since June 2, their top issues are crime, taxation, transgender minors, transgender sports, “character” and LGBTQ+ rights. Of the $156.1 million Democrats have spent in that time, they’ve focused on taxation, healthcare, character, corruption, inflation and bipartisanship. 

Over the summer, Democrats’ leading issues in advertisements were healthcare, inflation, housing and bipartisanship. Since Labor Day, healthcare advertising has fallen to the wayside while ads about crime, corruption and special interests became leading issues. And thanks to a late focus on taxation by Democrats the last two weeks, that topic skyrocketed into the party’s No. 1 most expensive issue of the general election at $35.8 million spent since June 2 — $16.9 million of that since Sept. 29. 

On the Republican side, taxation was their candidates’ leading campaign issue until mid-September, when crime and transgender issues overtook everything else. Republicans have spent $103.1 million on crime-centric advertising, with tax-focused ads at $92.7 million. When combining the three, transgender minors, transgender sports and LGBTQ+ rights take the top spot at $119 million.

And, yes, it may be from an outsider PAC, but as I wrote a week ago, Elmo's PAC has contributed mightily to the GOP and GOP-linked stupidity on this shift.

And, as I said yesterday, on the fake transgender student organization ads, this shift smacks of desperate, despicable and dumb.

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Otherwise, neither duopoly party is tacking environmentalism in any big way. Of course, both halves sold out on Prop 4, and even Texas Greens did. That said, can't believe this isn't being tackled more in non-Senate races, to tar other Rethuglicans with Bo French not having any plans for environmental abandoned well cleanup.

And, of course the Democrats abandoned health care. 

Fake transgender ads under investigation

I forgot that Sarah Stogner — the 2024 Republican primary challenger for a RRC slot, and DEFINITELY not your typical Texas Republican — is now a DA. And, as a DA, she's opened an investigation into possible forgery charges in that fake transgender voter mailing of earlier this month:

Stogner said her constituents are angry and concerned about their children being “exposed” to the material in the mailers. She also said if the pamphlets were sent to motivate conservatives to vote, the effort was self-defeating. 

“If we were actually worried about kids and their safety, no one would be sending propaganda to spread that message further on television ads, in text messages, in written whatever,” she said. “If we are truly trying to protect children, we’d be focusing on how to put pedophiles in jail.”

And, she's not alone:

Stogner’s investigation follows two letters from state Rep. Jeff Leach, R-Plano, that asked Attorney General Ken Paxton to investigate the origin of the mailers as well as a series of text messages that similarly referenced TENT. 

While Leach’s first letter, spurred by the texts, asked Paxton to investigate potential violations of a state law related to student-organized groups and materials taught in public schools, his second letter asked to uncover the identity of the sender. 

“Since sending that letter one week ago, I have received new information raising the possibility that the communications and associated toolkit may not originate from the group whose name it was sent under,” Leach wrote.

That said, Jeff, do you really think Kenny Boy is going to investigate? No way in hell, either before or after he loses to Talafreako Nov. 3. 

And, yeah, Stogner's right. It smacks of desperation, almost as much desperation as "Revive with Vivek" Ramaswamy's despicable ad featuring addled lies (the best I can call them) from the mom of his Democratic opponent in the Ohio gubernatorial race, Amy Acton. 

In both cases, to complete the alliteration trifecta, beyond being desperate and despicable, they're just plain dumb. 

And, speaking of that? Per what I said last week about his own PAC's stupid direct mail fliers, it wouldn't surprise me if Elmo is somehow connected. 

That said, there is a side note to all of this.

Where are are major metropolitan area counties' DAs, you know, from Dallas, Harris and Travis? Were they afraid of being called "partisan" if they opened an investigation? 

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UPDATE, Oct. 28: The Trib reports a Travis County judge has ruled the people behind the fakery must testify under oath, but this is presumably related to a civil filing by TENT. Still no word on any Democrat DAs launching criminal investigations.